Stats Canada numbers tommorrow?????

[boarderbloke]

Where will they take us?
[URL="http://www.syngentafarm.ca/Alerts/AlertDetail.aspx?AlertTypeId=5&alertId=171491"]Will They Massage the Numbers[/URL]

Ag Canada's recent numbers show canola ending stocks at half of StatsCan previous report. Will StatsCan "find" more canola, or will they also lower their ending number to a very tight 350,000t.

[HappyFarmer]

Probably will try and find more canola
which is bullshit!!!!!! We have great
demand for canola which means we have more
to dispose of. Pisses me off!

[bucket]

If they start playing with the 11/12 crop production numbers, you know they are fudging. If they move 12/13 numbers a little they are helping the crush industry.

In a way. by massaging the numbers, its a government helping the industry. Its a subsidy by not reporting real numbers.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact? but really what are the facts, if they keep changing them.

By this point in the year the production should be nailed down, there should be no fudging. And definitely not going back 2 years.

[silverback]

Are there any rules regarding employees of stats can and their trading accounts?

[bucket]

Doubt it. But that might be a good question to them the next time they call. Maybe they will hang up on me instead. Thanks silver.

[charliep]

Not a major report but will be interesting on the feed waste and dockage. Level of deliveries, elevator stocks and the fact close to 100 % of canola is delivered into the elevator system mean that production becomes very visible at the end of a crop year with the only unknown on farm stocks.

[charliep]

Likely the only one who actually looked at the market this morning but a healthy rally continues. Tomorrow will be a non event on the Statistics Canada front. Everything is following soybeans/nevousness about South America. Not perfect down there but far better than 2012.

[bucket]

So where do they find 500,000 tonnes in August from the previous year?

That's alot of grain sitting in bins considering it was worth close to 15 bucks at one point last summer.

[charliep]

Statistics Canada had to adjust the numbers to prevent a negative carryover.

The carryover on July 31, 2012 was 788,000 tonnes. 563,000 tonnes is documented as commercial stocks in the handling system. This is an official CGC number. The on farm stocks was 225,000 tonnes. You can argue with this one but really a mute point/not worth the time.

Simple accounting in the case of canola. Cereals are a different beast. In all cases, price is really about what it takes to keep grain flowing in the system with these periodic updates simply a picture of a point in time.

Tomorrows report will be a non issue except for number crunches like me and market news reporters who need something to say.

[bucket]

Sorry charliep, wasn't arguing but it would have been easier to say that the system was on fumes. And they should have known it alot sooner.

Glad you can defend them and their record, I won't.

Its incompetence at its finest.

Just as quickly as you and I have this conversation is the time it should take to update a system as to where and how much grain there is.