Stats Canada numbers tommorrow?????

[boarderbloke]

Where will they take us?
[URL="http://www.syngentafarm.ca/Alerts/AlertDetail.aspx?AlertTypeId=5&alertId=171491"]Will They Massage the Numbers[/URL]

Ag Canada's recent numbers show canola ending stocks at half of StatsCan previous report. Will StatsCan "find" more canola, or will they also lower their ending number to a very tight 350,000t.

[HappyFarmer]

Probably will try and find more canola
which is bullshit!!!!!! We have great
demand for canola which means we have more
to dispose of. Pisses me off!

[bucket]

If they start playing with the 11/12 crop production numbers, you know they are fudging. If they move 12/13 numbers a little they are helping the crush industry.

In a way. by massaging the numbers, its a government helping the industry. Its a subsidy by not reporting real numbers.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact? but really what are the facts, if they keep changing them.

By this point in the year the production should be nailed down, there should be no fudging. And definitely not going back 2 years.

[silverback]

Are there any rules regarding employees of stats can and their trading accounts?

[bucket]

Doubt it. But that might be a good question to them the next time they call. Maybe they will hang up on me instead. Thanks silver.

[charliep]

Not a major report but will be interesting on the feed waste and dockage. Level of deliveries, elevator stocks and the fact close to 100 % of canola is delivered into the elevator system mean that production becomes very visible at the end of a crop year with the only unknown on farm stocks.

[charliep]

Likely the only one who actually looked at the market this morning but a healthy rally continues. Tomorrow will be a non event on the Statistics Canada front. Everything is following soybeans/nevousness about South America. Not perfect down there but far better than 2012.

[bucket]

So where do they find 500,000 tonnes in August from the previous year?

That's alot of grain sitting in bins considering it was worth close to 15 bucks at one point last summer.

[charliep]

Statistics Canada had to adjust the numbers to prevent a negative carryover.

The carryover on July 31, 2012 was 788,000 tonnes. 563,000 tonnes is documented as commercial stocks in the handling system. This is an official CGC number. The on farm stocks was 225,000 tonnes. You can argue with this one but really a mute point/not worth the time.

Simple accounting in the case of canola. Cereals are a different beast. In all cases, price is really about what it takes to keep grain flowing in the system with these periodic updates simply a picture of a point in time.

Tomorrows report will be a non issue except for number crunches like me and market news reporters who need something to say.

[bucket]

Sorry charliep, wasn't arguing but it would have been easier to say that the system was on fumes. And they should have known it alot sooner.

Glad you can defend them and their record, I won't.

Its incompetence at its finest.

Just as quickly as you and I have this conversation is the time it should take to update a system as to where and how much grain there is.

[LEP]

Personally, I wish the industry and overseas buyers
didn't put as much weight in the numbers
generated as they do.

I know Statscan usually call me in the middle of a
busy season and the info they get from me would
never be within 10% of actual. I won't be bothered
to take the time for detailed or accurate analysis of
my farms stocks or output.

Bucket I would say that the only way they are going
to get better info is to verify or audit a percentage
of the producers surveyed.

It may be that the info they get from crop insurance
helps with verifying the phone surveys.

I wouldn't doubt the periodic years when the
country is down to minimal stocks for various crops
are used to rectify past errors and keep them from
being carried forward forever. ie canaryseed, this
years's canola etc.

So a past under reporting of stocks supported
prices for awhile, but the pain has to be taken
sometime.

[charliep]

I would note from the CGC numbers, the industry is backing off. Canola exports are about 650,000 tonnes less to the end of January. Crush continues to run along at a good pace.

As indicated before, canola deliveries to the end of January have amounted to 7.7 MMT or about 55 % of total supplies. I suspect there isn't anyone in the industry who isn't aware of this and reacting/managing risk by either slowing sales/allocating their handling resources to other crops or managing their sales position by forward contracting/other tools to get farmer delivery commitment. Current basis offering are a good indication of how hard the industry is working to match what they sell with farmer delivery commitments.

[Slapshot]

When they call me, I usually outright lie. Canola? We dont have any Canola, dont grow the infernal stuff!
I expect that I am not the only one. Typical government program, garbage in-garbage out.

[bucket]

Statscan says they can't access crop insurance.

That how stupid this whole thing is.

All statscan would have to do is get the crop insurance production reports in the middle of November bundled into one report. It could be done with a calculator with a plus and minus sign as well. But since the computer is there why not just have a running total.

Then punch in an accurate seeded acres and voila pretty accurate. Spend a few days confirming a few reports.

Or do like the states and actually go out and physically count heads pods etc.

They also have to be more up to date than have the ability to change something 2 years after the fact.

[boarderbloke]

Not everyone is in crop ins., but if StatsCan were able to use their numbers, I'm sure they would be able to extrapolate the acres & yield, and end up pretty darn close. And save everyone the harassment and B.S.