Stats Canada numbers tommorrow?????

[LEP]

Personally, I wish the industry and overseas buyers
didn't put as much weight in the numbers
generated as they do.

I know Statscan usually call me in the middle of a
busy season and the info they get from me would
never be within 10% of actual. I won't be bothered
to take the time for detailed or accurate analysis of
my farms stocks or output.

Bucket I would say that the only way they are going
to get better info is to verify or audit a percentage
of the producers surveyed.

It may be that the info they get from crop insurance
helps with verifying the phone surveys.

I wouldn't doubt the periodic years when the
country is down to minimal stocks for various crops
are used to rectify past errors and keep them from
being carried forward forever. ie canaryseed, this
years's canola etc.

So a past under reporting of stocks supported
prices for awhile, but the pain has to be taken
sometime.

[charliep]

I would note from the CGC numbers, the industry is backing off. Canola exports are about 650,000 tonnes less to the end of January. Crush continues to run along at a good pace.

As indicated before, canola deliveries to the end of January have amounted to 7.7 MMT or about 55 % of total supplies. I suspect there isn't anyone in the industry who isn't aware of this and reacting/managing risk by either slowing sales/allocating their handling resources to other crops or managing their sales position by forward contracting/other tools to get farmer delivery commitment. Current basis offering are a good indication of how hard the industry is working to match what they sell with farmer delivery commitments.

[Slapshot]

When they call me, I usually outright lie. Canola? We dont have any Canola, dont grow the infernal stuff!
I expect that I am not the only one. Typical government program, garbage in-garbage out.

[bucket]

Statscan says they can't access crop insurance.

That how stupid this whole thing is.

All statscan would have to do is get the crop insurance production reports in the middle of November bundled into one report. It could be done with a calculator with a plus and minus sign as well. But since the computer is there why not just have a running total.

Then punch in an accurate seeded acres and voila pretty accurate. Spend a few days confirming a few reports.

Or do like the states and actually go out and physically count heads pods etc.

They also have to be more up to date than have the ability to change something 2 years after the fact.

[boarderbloke]

Not everyone is in crop ins., but if StatsCan were able to use their numbers, I'm sure they would be able to extrapolate the acres & yield, and end up pretty darn close. And save everyone the harassment and B.S.

[bucket]

boarder

Exactly. See you and I could never work for the government - what would we do for the rest the year.

[LEP]

My understanding is that they get crop insurance
numbers in bulk.

I agree that not everyone is in crop insurance so
there is some extrapolation needed.

But even if you have those things bushel weight
alone swings things alot.

I had a 4400 bushel bin that I hauled that had over
5,000 bushels of barley on a year where my canola
is barely 50 lbs./bu.

My durum is 68.5 pounds per bu so bushels are not
bushels.

[Oliver88]

IMO, it would be a benefit to the country if the federal government unloaded Statistics Canada. They have no credibility with their recent results and we could use that $ elsewhere or to reduce taxes.

[Hopperbin]

Or similar to what was mentioned earlier, Sask. crop ins. could be hired to administer or do the work for stats Can for western Canada. Could be another sourse of income for them. The numbers Stats Can gets from the farmers has got to a real mess.
In fact our grain buyers do have a much better idea what is out there although I like to quote less bushels to them also.