Beans/canola

[cottonpicken]

People who make short term calls in the commodity
markets are either insane or have a death wish.

So here it goes.

We are now at major resistance of 15.

If you are the type that likes less risk and safety and
selling incrementally to achieve a descent average
price,today is a sell some day,only the second day for
the new crop year since early september(which i
posted).

Eventually we will be higher but a bull trap could just
as easily be sprung,which would put off a rally to new
highs further out on the time line.

If we get clear of 15 and rally you'll have some to sell.

My bet is we take a short trip down here and
now,rally to the 15 line again and then a new
assessment will have to be made at that time-and a
much more important one.

On the plus side we are up today while the usdx is up
and crude down.

IMO NIA DYODD

[crusher]

I still say that canola is more bullish
than beans, there's no crop coming from
S.Am. Gonna hold out for more and ride
out the blip. Been wrong before. Lots.
Don't care cause I'm on the beach in
Mexico. Its alot cheaper here than
lurking around the local equipment
dealers!

Are there any calls actually trading for
May/July?

[boarderbloke]

Crude down so much makes me nervous.
Noticed today that beans and meal are inversed while oil isn't, yet canola is. The last couple days we've seen MAR-JULY canola spread increase from $18-19 to $21.80
cotton, don't you think beans will test 15.37 this week?
Here's hoping tommorrow isn't "turn around Tuesday"!

[crusher]

To add fuel to the fire, Vancouver cash
price is $50 over futures.

[cottonpicken]

I've got 15 on the march as the line in the sand,i hope
to hell we break through here and now or else its
strike 2.

ASSuming canola follows the big bean moves.

[boarderbloke]

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/02/04/soybeans-look-to-continue-january-rally?t=commodities

[bgmb]

We just started selling canola again (haven't sold any since harvest)Feeling pretty good about the way that market is going.

But what about wheat? Its in a downward slide again and its just as important to watch wheat markets as canola.

[bucket]

Wheat is sliding, apparently there is enough wheat in the world.

There is also talk of large wheat crops being seeded in western canada.

Until the winter wheat crop comes out of dormancy (if it went into dormancy) and the ratings start coming out it will slide down.

Ohio said their ww crop looks ok but there was concern with a warming trend and then a shot of colder weather.

Canola new crop acres are being lost to wheat acrres but if canola manages to make 13 plus for new crop that might change the dynamic a bit.

[cottonpicken]

Haven't looked at wheat in a while(non to sell),i
remember being technically bullish a while back so i
got that wrong

Also didn't notice 8$ had been breached a trip to 6
looks likely.

In the short term context it is a sell day today imo.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, domestic feed wheat at Lethbridge is worth more that high grade/protein CWRS.

[boarderbloke]

Canola turns around this morning from being down $5.20, MAR-JULY spread opens to $25.00 as I type.

[boarderbloke]

well,,,that didn't last long! Is it fatiguing, or profit taking before Friday's USDA report and the Chineese New Year next week? anybody?

[charliep]

Checked a couple of the grain company websites and they are showing $10 over. With interday trading, prices close to $650/tonne or $14.75/bu.

[charliep]

Still going off the March contract as well. Will flip to the May I suspect shortly. Watch the basis when they do the roll. Will be interesting how the March/May spread works through the system as the companies change their pricing feference month from March to May.

[boarderbloke]

ya charlie, I've been carring that thought about MAR droping off, anyone of these days. Got brunt a couple years back when they those to change alittle earlier than usual. Took awhile to make up the basis differance.