AT what price does Canola have to get to, for you to plant more Canola!

[SASKFARMER3]

Current canola cash prices at over $14/bu are already strong, but they would need to get better yet to convince Prairie producers to abandon plans to plant more wheat in 2013, according to a Manitoba-based market analyst, says a story from Syngenta Farm.

Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing Inc. said canola prices would likely have to rise to about double that of wheat in order to force western Canadian farmers to re-think the expected switch out of canola and into wheat this spring.

“If you’re looking at $8.50 wheat, you’d almost have to think canola would have to be at $16 or $17.

Ok that's what the Experts are saying but I am asking farmers what they want to see happen to get them to seed more of the (Retarded Sister) Canola.

On our farm we have said since last harvest we are going to drop our canola acres by 25%.
So were getting back to less than 1/3 canola. 1/3 wheat and 1/3 Oats and peas and Soybeans.

So for me to drop wheat acreage or OATS AND PEAS. Canola would have to get to a fall price of 17.00
Sorry boys not spending a fortune for ps all return again in 2013.
Canola costs have gotten out of hand and reality needs to come to the suppliers.

[furrowtickler]

We just let 20% go, $14.15, canola was below $13 just a short while ago. We will leave the rest for now. Regardless of our emotions there is a big soya crop comming from S/A, it will put pressure on sooner or later. All it will take is for china to cancel a cargo or two from the U.S. and go for "cheaper" beans south.
Canola acres are staying about par in this area. Peas down , wht up.

[bigzee]

Totally agree on the input side. Seed costs are out of control. Charging obsence costs for varieties that wont stand, but guranteed to make u rich.(L150). Fert to me is not big issue, still have to feed cereals, but having said that, prices are a little cheaper than a yr ago. There have become to many variables in growing canola, should i spray for disease or not, especially when u cant see it. Atleast cereals u can see what you are spraying for. Canola has gotten as risky as growing chickpeas, a crop i did grow and said never again. LOL.Personally im not growing any canola this yr. I can grow no.1 durum with high protein. Im afraid of all the big talk of big acres of wht going IN, especially if states get alot of rain this spring on their red winter wht. Tough decisions this spring trying to find the "money maker".

[SASKFARMER3]

Furrow your area sounds like ours. No one is jumping in and saying they will grow more canola. Their getting their rotations back to normal. Now the Big Idiot farms might do Canola canola canola canola rotation again. Sooner or later it hits the fan, oh yea last year and the year before.
BIGZ I also agree with you fert has to go down either way. IT is holding and some lower than a last year by quite a bit.
Suppliers love Canola its like printing money.

[wd9]

bigzee, wheat and pea seed isn't that
different from canola seed costs. Unless
of course you have serious delusions and
you feel you just have to have that
overpriced bayer seed to get the same
yield.

[DogPatch]

maybe if we can check our ego's and watch what (and why) we pay for rent, and resist the fancy new paint of new equipment every year...... even $12 is a good price

Follow a proper rotation to reduce diseases (and don't blame it on the variety)

[errolanderson]

where is the wheat price heading?
maybe the question is;

At what price does Wheat have to get to,
for you to plant more canola?

[charliep]

To get $17/bu new crop canola, you would
have to have November futures close to
$750/tonne. What would soybean oil
futures have to be to support this
price?

Lots of debate around acres in many
forums/areas. We'll have the answer in
5 months and then the debate will be
yields. As said in the past, I will be
most concerned about which side of 15
MMT production is. The number is
canola's customer base.

[SASKFARMER3]

Dog patch why is 12 a good price for a over priced crop to grow.
The suppliers love to give it to farmers and were allowed to gouge us.
That's coming form a guy who has grown the crop since the early 70s.
WD my HRS and Pea cost are way below what canola costs to grow. We own a seed plant.
Proper variety selection and changing seed stock every few years vs Being told you have to pay this much for your seed from the Canola seed companies.
Gun to your head or no gun.
Real simple.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie Alberta will grow canola same as this year.
SAsk will less and Manitoba will grow even less.
Soy is going to be king in Manitoba.
So yes which side of 15 is important
Errol yes wheat below 7 and guys will look at other crops.

[Daylate]

12.50 canola and 7.50 wheat sure doesnt make much of a decision around here. i think industry is waiting and hoping for a drop in wheat prices to hold canola acres rather than bidding up the price for supply next year. I hope canola has to move higher to get the acres and not wheat moving down. we have been 45% to 55% last 5 years but will be going to less than 40% for sure. Maybe even less if it stays the same. The bags can sit in a cool dry corner of the shop for a year. One stupid decision doesnt warrant another!!! LOL. Last time i did that,( not many lbs.) germ only fell by 1% according to what it was supposed to be a time of delivery.
Its just expense to sit on too much of it.

[tipsy]

After following our neighbours experience this summer with hemp and checking out the hemp booths at Saskatoon crop production week we are going to grow 250-350 acres of hemp.
These acres will come from canola and pea acres regardless of price.
We normally keep our canola keep our canola acres around 35% but in 13 it will be more like 20 maybe 25%.

[SASKFARMER3]

See that's my point Sask farmers and Man are fed up with Canola. Alberta had the luck the last two years and thinks canola is king. And it is for them.
But most in the other two provinces are looking else where.
Canola will be down. Unless alberta goes wall to wall.
Oh well still down.

[vvalk]

Saskfarmer3 you want $17 new crop canola and
urea prices to go down, any other wishes?

[bucket]

It seems to make sense, actually.

Natural gas prices are at all time lows, so the fertilizer makers are making such good margins they can pay fines for their illegal pricing activities.

If you think fertilizer is at the right price, then 17 bucks a bushel seems right to the farmer, IF we could make the same margins.