Farm Land

[Horse]

I can tell you land in the county or Red Deer And thats good black land 5 ft deep was 150/225/acre in the early 70ts. 1/4s with buildings was about $35000. 1973 bly was 2.50 feed mill price fat cattle was .44 hogs was .60 that fall good bred cows around $180/200, fuel die/per gal .18 gas .23 I have no idea what that would be adjusted for inflation, O yes rent was 1/3 or $10/acre cash a new 70ish HP tractor $13/15 thou, The average farm was about 3 1/4s .And we all made a living and life wasnt too bad but it seems that since someone figured out they wanted thier neibours share to things have gone down hill, but then mabey its just old age catching up to me and all this new technology you know where you give someone $1oo and they show you how to almost get it back.

[fjlip]

In 73, land was $130/ cult acre here. Int rates 5%. Diesel 25 cents a gallon. A brand new JD 4430, $14000. New Half ton about $4000.
Costs were SFA/ acre. Risk was low.

[Hopperbin]

freewheat I don't see that in my area that the young guys with no family are buying land etc. What sense is it really? But anyways I could probably make a buck cause I know a few hot looking Chinese ladies interested in cleaning up on them if they are interested lol. Its all business right through to break up and then its business as usual. But I find it strange that someone with no family and their dad is 60 that they would be hourding land and assets yet. At least I had a dad that quit, been an amazing experience to keep things going some times.

[Hopperbin]

Flip I kick myself everytime I hear a story like yours cause I through out my dad's old books. Not sure why I ever done that. Anyways from memory I could be wrong a bit but canola was a buck a bushel in about 1971 or 1970, or was it wheat that was a buck, but anyways things were tight for a few years. Then things sorta went nuts just after that.

[freewheat]

Hopper, there are 4 young farmers within
2 miles of me, who are single, between
the ages of 32 and maybe 40, with 3 000
acres each or more, who farm with their
dads aged 60-75, and have no women, no
kids, yet put ads in the paper for more
land. No hired labour either. I think
when the dads finally say enough is
enough with the piggy bank backing,
there is going to be a rude awakening in
this countryside.

Me, I have a wife, four kids, and with
half the land, have no interest
whatsoever to put an ad in the paper for
more. And our land prices are "only" in
the 700 buck an acre range. MAX. And I
can not pencil it. And if I can not, I
guarantee they can't either, with
equivalent crops, but certainly not
equal costs, with their brand new
machinery. Oh yeah, I forgot, they are
being bankrolled by old, paid for land.
lol...by the massive profits in these
parts from the 1980's.

How guys are pencilling 2 and 3 grand an
acre in western Canada is mind numbing
to me.

[wd9]

Its easy to 'pencil' when there are
certain assumptions. Like the price of
land will double, as it always has, in
ten or so years.

2k land becomes 4k which is 200 bucks an
acre per year.

So goes the thought process. If they are
wrong, the corp goes bankrupt, and they
walk away or at least break even. If
they win, they win big.

You did the exact same thing SF3, then
numbers were just a little different.
You have lots of land today because you
didn't whine about it, you bought it.
You risked it.

Why is it that most of the posts in
Agriville say land is going to crash?
Isn't that the herd mentality that
allows the risk takers to become rich?

[phoenix64]

WD
I am not following your logic, shouldn't be as easy
as just walking away from a broke ass farm corp,
all shareholders sign personal guarantees on that
debt, least that's the way it's been since I started
expanding 17 yrs ago. If some of these fellas and
their creditors feel comfortable stickin their necks
out that far, it's maybe because their hopin that
there will debt right downs and interest rate
breaks like the 80's for the bozos that bid up land
that they couldn't afford, dont think ur average tax
payer will have the stomach for bailouts this time
around, that been said, me and few other vultures
have begun circling.

[Rareearth]

If there was a NHL style salary cap, but it was to
limit the price of land to 20% of the gross income
of wheat on a annual basis with a five year
average (high and low tossed out) what would the
farms look like, communities etc look like in 20
years from now?

Better, same or worse in general?

[cottonpicken]

Historical perspective is one piece of the puzzle in
understanding what is happening.

Gold is a barometer,its relationship to land price and
wheat price and bond price(interest rates) needs to be
clearly understood to make any sort of forecast.

Zirp(zero interest rate policy) is the end game for our
current financial system.

[Horse]

Back in the late 60s early 70s I rember an old timer telling me if the bank came and asked his 2 sons for the money they owed they would have to leave bareheaded.By 74 ****seed hit $10/bu but quickly fell off.
Some of those young farmers hungon and most tookup a new carrier mostly oil and have drove the wages to an unprecedented level. So mabey some can lift the profability of farming also?

[wd9]

Phoenix, many more people own so very
little and can borrow so much, its not
hard to claim bankrupt and walk away with
nothing starting again.

Or throw the dice and win.

[dubsy]

Freewheat you say you have no interest in putting
ad in paper for more land, so why do you care
about young farmers trying to expand? You sound
jealous, and for them to use their fathers equity as
collateral is smart and best way to expand into
next generation. My two cents