This time last year?

[bucket]

Last year when Ritz made the announcement that the cwb was changing, new crop prices were around 7.50 for wheat and durum.

They are similar today.

Does anyone think the same thing will happen this as well, with a run up into harvest?

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket,

IS it GOING to Rain in the US mid West this summer?

If you are an oddsmaker... 70 percent chance of record
US production.. of Beans and Corn.

Corn brought UP wheat prices this last summer.
Projections for this fall/13 are now $4.80/bu... where
they were $7-8/bu last summer. Beans $10-11/bu
instead of $16 last year .

If you can call the North American weather for this
summer... you can answer the question.

Cheers

[bucket]

Good points

But the soil moisture deficit in the states is where my concern is.

A foot of snow might start the crop down there but by no means finish it to 160 bpa.

And then there is the condition of the winter wheat crop that can't go ignored.

Worst condition ratings since they started keeping track and a bumper crop??????

[hobbyfrmr]

If a Sask farmer knows his costs of production, he can use his SCIC average yeilds to predict a break even price. Grain prices over this break even would be regarded as profit.
That farmer should ask himself, today can I sign up a profitable wheat price for new crop delivery. If the answer is yes, then....why not sign up a percentage of that SCIC average yeild to a line company that is bonded and offering an act of God clause. Then, you know you have sold some of your new crop for a profit.
If the answer is no, then wait, study the CBOT commodity charts, read as much as you can about wheat and corn. Tom has a point. US corn dictates our barley, oats and feed wheat prices. It snowed last week in the USA. Prices went down. I think the drought is not over, but rhetoric in the market drops prices. The ag industry, traders and speculators LOVE lower grain prices. Only farmers like high grain prices. There are many farmers who took profit. There are many farmers who did not do anything and are willing to wait.

[ajl]

This talk of moisture deficit reminds me of spring of 2002 in S AB. We
had had a record breaking drought in 2001. We were one year ahead of
everyone else which had the drought in 02. There was no snow until the
last week of Feb. Then the floodgate were opened with lots of snow in
Mar and and rain showers continued through July. There was above average
production that year. Therefore the best prediction right now is to use
average production. Now that moisture has started there I think we will
see close to average production there with a tendency to go higher.

[crusher]

Oh yes 2002. Worst crop we ever grew... by a long shot - Central Alberta. Wished I didn't have any hedges that year.

[Happytrails]

ajl the 2002 crop was the poorest of the 4 bad years (in this country) 2000-2003. 03 started out great until mid June and then a heat wave plus grasshoppers in July and August destroyed the cereal crops and late hay and pasture.

[fjlip]

E Sk 2001 crop grew on subsoil, only 5" rain Apr to Sept, wheat 45 bu/acre, barley 65.
2002 almost double the rain but very hot Aug burned the heads to a crisp, 18 bu/acre wheat, 24 of 38 lb barley.

[furrowtickler]

I have a hard time thinking that wheat will be above $7 next fall(HRSW). I have a feeling there will be a huge wheat crop planted in the Northern Hemisphere this spring and drought may ease some in the U.S.

[bucket]

Right, but what about the amount of wheat being fed where there is no corn, or where wheat is less than corn?

There is no evidence that the amount of wheat fed has been accounted for in the US.

I am not sure the party is over for wheat just yet.

[bucket]

And yes, I realize there is a substantial reduction in cow numbers in the states, but there is alot less corn as well.