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Where are all the gold gurus?

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    #13
    Lol,Errol,how in the world do you believe the soverign
    debt of the western world will ever be paid off?

    Comment


      #14
      The QE is a lot like trying to break a damn. They
      won't stop till it gives way and when that happens
      "smart" people will not be in control of market
      sentiment.the bond vigilantes will,and the fed
      won't be able to unwind in a nice gradual decline
      like they speak of. All there theories seem
      dreamed up in a vacuum where market sentiment
      and human nature don't exist.
      Also the fed has a problem where the long
      bonds they hold will not be able to fund the
      ongoing demands of servicing banks reserves.
      Which means they will have to either sell there
      massive holdings of debt or print money. Given
      what we know about how govt likes to spend I
      highly doubt they will have the treasury step in to
      fill the gap and I highly doubt they will try to sell
      debt at a huge capital loss - so they will print more
      money in order to cover the shortfall which could
      last for years and years. Remember this bond
      market has been in a bull market for 30 years and
      is now a bubble. It could take 20 years and a
      spike in interest rates to turn that around.

      Comment


        #15
        Every time gold has a pullback in its bull run, the naysayers have proclaimed its demise. It's had several pullbacks in the past several years, and each time went on to set new highs.

        Inflation is amply evident in the price of farmland, now that we have institutional investors piling in as they search for better returns.

        Central banks have also created a bubble in government debt worldwide, as governments borrow money to service obligations that they cannot possibly make good on.

        Gold is just taking a breather.

        Central banks are only good at two things: creating inflation and creating asset bubbles. They literally have no idea or interest in creating deflation.

        Comment


          #16
          "Lol,Errol,how in the world do you believe the soverign
          debt of the western world will ever be paid off?"

          Cotton; Did Germany pay off their debts from the 2
          WW's? NO.

          Will the US be required to pay off the debt from 2 Iraq
          and Afgani wars... the war on terror... I think you know
          the answer. NO.

          China has used QE for decades... and no one
          complains... WHY?

          India has put in punitive import restrictions on Gold...
          which has reduced the demand and guess what... THE
          PRICE Dropped! Surprise Surprise!

          Cheers

          Comment


            #17
            Inflation only works when there is an underlying opportunity for expansion of the economy. Unfortunately there are now more old people than young people in most corners of the world and even though old people have more money they spend less of it. No spending = no growth = no inflation. Cash will be king for the next 10 years.

            Comment


              #18
              ado089 . . . totally agree with your
              statement.

              Government spending does not create
              prolonged economic growth. This is Peter
              to pay Paul economics. It has to come
              from real business or the private
              sector.

              Central governments are desperately
              trying to trigger inflation with mixed
              results. But how can there be an
              inflationary spiral when the average
              Joe's disposal income continues to
              gradually decline?

              Have the wild gold bulls out there and
              inflationists thought about this? A jump
              in inflation and interest rates would be
              a flat out disaster for the middle
              class. It would trigger a massive
              washout in the Cdn real estate market
              for starters.

              Now lets stir in China . . . . China is
              at the end zone of their real estate
              bubble. They are communists that are
              about to get one hell of a lesson in
              overheated capitalism. When the bottom
              falls out in China housing/condo market,
              there will be no inflationary pressures
              in Canada for a very long time (10 years
              plus?) as China is the key driver for
              the Cdn economy.

              Have the gold bulls looked beyond their
              own self-serving interests?

              Comment


                #19
                "Government spending does not create  
                prolonged economic growth. This is Peter  
                to pay Paul economics."

                I agree Errol with that statement. Govt does not
                generate wealth only productive people do. Govt
                just takes that wealth and redistributes it,however
                govt deficit spending does not come without
                consequence. It comes in inflation because it
                pushes more paper into chasing the same amount
                of goods and services. You are dismissive of
                inflation because the velocity is not there but that
                can change the second people realize the bond
                market is going to roll over them. I feel like we
                should start posting clips of Milton Friedman
                explaining this.

                Comment


                  #20
                  You might think I'm contradicting myself but I don't
                  have as strong feeling in which way Gold will
                  trade in the short-medium term. Im not smart
                  enough or dumb enough to know how human
                  emotion will play out that precisely. I do however
                  know that govt is not going to cut spending until
                  the bond market forces it to and that's why I think
                  long term inflation will be a real threat.

                  Comment


                    #21
                    Errol i just had the opportunity to date a lady from Hongkong. She was here for over 10 years and told me about some of the property appreciations goings on in China and the amount of money out there we have no idea. Right now there are immigrants such as this lady selling their what we call condos she just sold hers 3 months ago, one single condo, and buying prime Vancouver property not a condo but a house in the high priced vancouver and pocketting half a million Canadian dollars in the deal for spending money. Our country is being run on immigrants money. Anyways nice lady may have a second date yet.

                    Comment


                      #22
                      With property appreciation in the likes of 50 times in the past 20 years I am not sure why they are purchasing so much gold. Seems like there are better investments than gold if your chinese. Then things can change very fast.

                      Comment


                        #23
                        As a mold maker I remember so many people talking about how they were the designers of things and got chinese companies to make the products as if the chinese were stupid cows, today their jobs are not availlable to Canadians as they are now retired the jobs are now in Mainland china but we have men retired talking about how they were smart and worked for their company to teach the chinese how to do it as if they would not be able to do it better.

                        Comment


                          #24
                          just because you keep pouring gas on wet wood doesn't mean that it's burning. Pretty soon you'll find your self out of gas and no way to cook dinner.

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