Marketing lessons

[bucket]

Why are they using basis to attract wheat instead of futures?

A premium for offer (as Viterra calls it ) gets there "fix" now without having to tell anyone they are in fact short.

You deliver and their need goes away.

[bucket]

Besides if my HRSW isn't worth more than feeding it to cows, why am I growing it?

Might as well switch to ethanol wheat.

This won't end well for end users that refuse to pay for quality.

I realize the graincos can switch stock to put the right product at the feed mill or feedlot, and use the quality grain for other sales but eventually that will catch up to them.

Saves them some money now, but when they finally realize the quality wheat is gone, things might move up dramatically. Maybe, maybe not.

[danpenner]

if we end up with normal growing season arent the winter wheat (lower quality wheats)going to drop in value sooner than the cwrs wheats, normal years tend to put premeums back into high quality crops
to me that screams of better basis levels to come on high quality wheats given a crop year with no real production issues

[hobbyfrmr]

High quality hard red spring wheat was a great
story propagated about 70 years ago by some
political entity to control/suppress the real open
market price of wheat.

Wheat in the world is bought and sold by protein
content, falling number and/or both.
It warms my heart and bank account that feed
wheat is valued very close to the milling prices.
Many farmers in my area have gone to growing
Andrew and crystal wheat. They grow high yields
and sell it on the open market for ethanol or feed.
They net more profit than the old HRSW elevator
screw job.
NET DOLLARS PER ACRE.
Nobody gives a shit about how beautiful and red
your wheat is and how you managed to combine it
without any rain on it.

[bucket]

hobby


Thanks for the reality check, I had got lost in my thoughts about how red my wheat was this year. Turns out, as you point out, nobody gives a shit.

Having said that, mosey on over to that other thread and maybe we can make a deal. The "for yooouu, today" special is gone and I have raised my price. Maybe you will be more interested.

[Oliver88]

Good point Hobby and others. If there is no
premium $ for hard red the acres will be shrinking
fast and be replaced with SWS or CPS varieties.

[hobbyfrmr]

Bucket, are you going to sell your farm and buy
one in Brazil?
I think you are up to something!

[Choice2U]

Brenda...Canola has a higher price for delivery today than September so they are telling me to sell now. Wheat on the other hand has carry in the market right through fall (if my terminology is correct). The market is not telling me to sell my wheat now. Maybe I used the "inverted" term incorrectly. Also, "locking" in profit is easy until you don't produce as much as you thought so two problems develop...first, your cost per bushel goes up when you produce less and second, 15% sold might end up being 50% sold as experienced in the past 2 of 4 years. That's why I use canola put options but have not got into US wheat options yet. Still trying to learn Kansas/Chicago/Minneapolis issues eg. buy Minneapolis only to see Chicago with a bigger run and spread between high and low quality drops and one wishes they would have been using Chicago.

[btjadenlepp]

Danny - You should then plan for a
'normal' premium on CWRS vs. WW of around
$15/t.

Choice - We have also advised being more
heavily sold on old-crop canola than
spring wheat.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[errolanderson]

realize this is a really short-term
viewpoint, but U.S. wheat markets appear
quite oversold right now. looking for a
modest recovery in the cash market over
the next few days . . .

but wheat prices won't go back to the
glory days of a few weeks ago (IMO) . . .
top is in.

[BTO_farmall]

FarmDinkAll Solutions,

Wes Ain't Contractin New Crop Cause Price Ain't F#ckin High Nough, Duh!!!!!! $7 Ain't Payin No Note on $4000 an Acre Land. Yous Dont Even Know It, Wheat Bein Fed atta Record Pace Cross Da Line, Don't Sit There Flappin Gums Tellin Different, Wait Thats yer Kind. Tellin Custies Not Ta Call Askin Questions, When Thats What Joe The Dumb F#ckin Farmer Payin Yous Ta Doo. Dumb Minnow, Askin us Farmers Where Wes Git Hour Info From, When Its Yer Job. The Numbers are Not Bein Takin into Account - Bull Shit Based Markets What Wes Dealin With. Stay Home n' Clean House!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!