Canola,,, 20% left,,, what price pulls it?

[boarderbloke]

EXCEPT FOR the last load, or the bin sweepings or the little bit farmers often keep back to "play with" or "gamble with" in the hopes for coffee shop bragging rights.

IF A BUYER called you RIGHT NOW, what is the LOWEST price that would get you to part with 85 to 95% of your remaining canola.

Current cash price here, $14.52
I'd sell half my remaining at $15.50
And sell the final 50% at $16.00

Firm hands, I don't know, but I'd like to hear what others with canola left are thinking. Maybe I have a bird in the hand already.

Tough question, but if you still have canola, whats your price or plan for the remainder?

[SASKFARMER3]

16.00 I'm out of here with all that's left!

[cottonpicken]

The current backwardation is like a storm starting to
feed itself.

When this happens to the gold market we are going
to have alot more to talk about.

[hobbyfrmr]

$10. 41bushel then "pull the trigger". That is just
below break even price.
Sell it or smell it!

[Burbert]

fn Saskframer3 sold it, has still
apparently got it and will sell it again,
what an fn genie this phoney framer is, eh
FHarenRitzie!

[westsider]

Hate to agree with you Burbert but SF3 grain has 9 lives. The guy is too busy holidaying most of the time to actually know whats going on with his daddy's farm anyways. Noone that has ever built their own, holidays that much I have ever heard of. #burbertcallout

[errolanderson]

Demand may rule the last 20%, not supply.

If crusher/export demand drops into crop year end, cash bids drop regardless of supply . . . .

[SASKFARMER3]

burpfart and westsider. Are you to for real.
Simple seed a few acres like I do and grow a average crop now why sell in fall when its a small crop just to feed the crushers.
Take a decent basis and haul in and wait. 20000 bushels was liquidated this week that was hauled in before I went to the Cayman. The next will be delivered in early June and late June.
Its real simple and no Again my daddy did not give me the farm I got a quarter at 18 and took the farm from their. Some of it was timing some of it was luck and some was just took a chance. But when you sit and tear down others its a good sign you never really see the big picture.
I always sell most of my canola from March to July period. one in 10 I loose out.
You can holiday and enjoy just have to work when your home. Or like some who criticise you sit and wonder all day why the neighbour is getting ahead of you when your sitting in the coffee shop discussing yesterdays news.

[Kodiak]

Errol, as you can see there is $70 backwardation Jul/Nov. Maybe the spread should be sold? Either Nov will rise to the old crop levels if 2013 production is poor, or if demand faulters, July will fall to Nov levels.......

[crusher]

I dumped 20% over the last week, nearby futures is having trouble pushing through, what is it now, quadruple top. Still got 25% left, all Nexera $55 basis off July. The gold thing has me a little spooked, but how much does a guy need in cash, might as well have some commodity too. My target will probably be the weekly chart highs for the July, about $650. Should net me about $16. Best so far $15.75.

[SASKFARMER3]

Crusher good going. See burpfart And west slider
don't see how a great basis can get you what you
want. Delivery is easy if three semis drive And
load three trips a day not busting ass.

[crusher]

Ya and I spent half the winter in foreign land. Each to his own. Now do I head down to Regina to look at that used drill?

[errolanderson]

Kodiak . . . yes and yes.

The spread between Nov and July is very wide (IMO) given the possible slump in old crop demand before crop year end (my opinion). Don't believe July will meet Nov, but it might meet it half way . . . which would still be a hell of a drop. Or simply purchase some July put options for a song right now (less risky) and if this market craters, these puts could turn into gold. (Bad pun . . . gold could take a further price whipping). A $600 July put was trading for $4.50/MT (10 cents/bu) today. Not much premium risk for the holder. In my opinion, July may retrace its steps both up and then down.

And as John explained more elegantly than I, storing grain into a huge inverse is just poor marketing.

The tight supply card and the last one to sell 'wins' mentality doesn't cut it in this deflationary global market environment.

Just ask any western Cdn cattle feeder for an explanation. Failing beef demand has trumped tight cattle supply creating a wide-spread cattle feeding wreck.

And this lack of demand is what hammering at global commodity markets one-by-one right now . . . .

[Kodiak]

The thing that is going to keep me from selling the spread at the moment is even though I agree demand may slump before year end, supply is going to slump as well. With old crop cash prices at $120 premium to new crop, I'm not inclined to sell a futures spread that is only $70.

And yes those $600 July puts are cheap. Good tip. 10 cents is nothing to protect a $15 product. Thanks.

But---- maybe tomorrow the $610's will be 10 cents;-)

[ColevilleH2S]

Dumb luck hit me square across the face this morning

Income tax is due next week, so I priced a whack of Canola this morning for immediate delivery. Felt like a Wizard when the market nosedived in the afternoon.
<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i335.photobucket.com/albums/m441/npksetal/wizard_zps5541555e.png" border="0" alt=" photo wizard_zps5541555e.png"/></a>

Rather be lucky than smart.