So why should we grow Canola this Year!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well it sure isn't to make money!
The fall price at our local terminal is 536 - 20 = 516 div 44.092 = $11.70 delivered off the combine in October!
Yea they want us to grow it then take our profit for all our work.
This is a BS number. Europe has issues with their winter crop, cold and late equals less crop. Australia and us are not doing great. The later you seed in Sask on the west and south part of the province the poorer the crop. The USA is so full of shit with their numbers their starting to look like Disney land instead of the USDA!
All winter told the USA did ok last year but it seems as of this morning their importing soy from SA.
Friday rant since seeding is still a week away.

[grrrr]

Looks like two choices.
1. Don't grow canola.
2. Grow canola, but don't pre-price any.

[SASKFARMER3]

That's the gist of this rant why lock in if they aren't willing to pay. Their is so much BS in grain world from India's Surplus of rotting grain to no problem strait ahead from the great Titanic USA!

[charliep]

Are you wanting to price canola/other crops today
(old or new crop)? If you are right in your perception
of the market, it will correct. The market will be the
ultimate determiner of prices - your only real
alternative is timing of sales. Realities around when
you actually get on the land/probability of getting
your target yields/good quality and from there the
decision to switch to shorter season crops are the
questions that will drive acres.

There is nothing that is happening in the market that
shouldn't have been anticipated. There will be more
volatility over the summer with opportunities to price
new crop. This go is a reminder that prices can go
down even more easily than up. The charts are
telling a story. I still like someones expression here
that prices take the escalator up and the elevator
down.

[SASKFARMER3]

No Charlie I'm not pricing today would do a good basis but not pricing. Watching what's happening.
Just sick of all the BS reports Big big big USA crop then they have to import come spring. Hm was it big big. SA no problems just paradise. Yea we use to be that.
Its a discussion! thanks for imput!

[bucket]

A good basis contract is still a contract to deliver on. They still have you.

[charliep]

Perhaps you have to put a good basis in the context of when you want to deliver crop to pay bills/minimize bin space. If you are rich enough/can cash flow/have bin space to hold to March, you likely don't need to sign a basis contract. If you want to sell off the combine to pay bills (basis is normally weakest), then there is incentive to sign.

I should note that the discussion about basis really only applies to wheat and canola. From there, what is your marketing plan based on your financial needs/management style.

[silverback]

Does anyone remember the last time it rained in central or southern Alberta? The kids are almost finished seeding their wheat and looking at extremely hard and dry ground to put canola in. Is this really the best thing to do? They needed some moisture since the snow has gone, but we are right now looking really, really bad.

[charliep]

November ICE canola and December CBT soyoil charts.

<href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX13">Nov Canola</a>

<href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLZ13">Dec Soyoil</a>

[charliep]

Try 2

<href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLZ13">Dec soyoil</a>

<href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX13">Nov canola</a>

[Partners]

The way the weather is going, it will be alot higher than $14 off the combine..For those who will get a crop..

[charliep]

Base numbers for canola crush - will note that crush plants are working at 56 % capacity. Carryover will stay tight but consumption is adjusting to the realities. I will post both the address and the link just in case.

http://www.copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYMAY82013.pdf

[URL="http://www.copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYMAY82013.pdf"]COPA[/URL]

I would be following the Grain Stats Weekly - week 40 isn't available yet.