U.S. Economy Again Slowing?

[errolanderson]

Recent economic data suggests that the
American economy is again in a slowdown.

Housing starts released this morning
dropped sharply from last month. Permits
appeared OK.

Weekly jobless claims again shot back up
Real U.S. unemployment above 15% when
including those giving up looking for
work.

Rallying U.S. dollar and failing
precious metals again an indicator of
disinflation or more truthfully
deflation. Gold to $1,150 per oz?

Interest rates may drop further.

Retail spending remain in-serious
decline. More box stores in trouble?

U.S. manufacturing is again slowing. A
sympton of a rallying American dollar?

U.S. crude oil inventories have now
surged to record highs.

Personally expect rocky 2nd quarter data
out of the states over the next few
weeks.

U.S. stock market record highs on the
short-tails of fed stimulus. Dangerous
bubble or real?

Market volatility may pick up soon (IMO)

[jensend]

following month to month data is dangerous. i look at a little longer term picture and wonder where people see long term growth in the economy. the housing crash is over but only localized pockets of recovery where the crash was maybe overdone. the americans are about as cooked as the europeans and the germans have hobbled growth (including their own) for a fair long time into the future.

[errolanderson]

Jensend . . . personally in awe of U.S.
equity market record strength.

Are investors so desperate for returns and
so blind to risk? U.S. Fed policy has
built dangerous bubbles in several markets
. . . including U.S. housing (IMO).

[jensend]

i think the equity market bubble is a sign that investors believe the other options have been inflated beyond tolerance and perhaps a strategically good portfolio can make gains. there's obviously been a rush of capital into equities and i think the latecomers will, as usual, get beat up quite badly. the p/e ratios indicate that investors are desperate to park their money somewhere.

[Burbert]

Crank up the money/cash printin machines
agin. Thats worked in the past, lots and
lots and lotsa times, why not now agin,
eh. fhrprenriz!

[rkaiser]

Or crank some investors in the side of the head and get them off their asses. Lack mentality, fear, and laziness drive the equity markets. Lots of money in the world and as Bubert says, they keep making more. Build something with it for chripes sake. Counting on the stock market to put money into entrepreneurs hands works, but too many middle men taking along the way.

Making things complex will continue to nothing but hold back a world from thriving.

Oliver Wendell Holmes said “I wouldn't give a fig for simplicity this side of complexity but I'd give my right arm for simplicity on the other side of complexity.”

Complexity breeds complacency.

[errolanderson]

Canada's inflation rate released this
morning (Friday) and fell to the slowest
in more than three (3) years.

The CPI index rose just 0.4% in April.

Bank of Canada rate hike talk is getting
fairly long-in-the-tooth. There is no
hope-in-hell of any rate hike in the
foreseeable future.

QE3 pullback talk is punishing gold and
the loonie this morning. If uncle Ben
doesn't show up at the dinner table with
his chequebook, a lot of commodities
will begin decline.

[Burbert]

Yabutt, they ain't declining now, theys
rallying taday, butt its Friday and the
longweekend is upon us, soooos nutting
will now actually happen till Tuesday, eh.
Except lotta beer and hotdogs consumed by
the city cousins on weekend. Comedian
framers have theys noses ta the grindstone
and are workin, workin, workin.
fharperenritz eh!