I understand

[charliep]

Not your soybean topic Errol but some of the fundamental numbers for week 42.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2012-13/week-semaine-42/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]CGC week 42[/URL]

<a href="http://www.copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYMAY222013.pdf">COPA May 22</a>

For what it is worth, a couple of comments.

I suspect the size of the canola crop has been under estimated. Similar comment farm stocks. Canola deliveries are slowing but still entering the elevator system.

As Errol has indicated, the export and crush side are also slowing - a reality of what canola is left over on farms. Will be interesting to watch what grain companies prioritize for grain movement this fall in their logistics planning and asset utilization. Historically, grain companies have had a large Chinese canola program on to pull off the combine deliveries. This year? Wheat? The market is still in the process of adapting to the new world.

[mustardman]

Hoping for rain to make sure everything gets germinated and we are done seeding

[charliep]

For those that like numbers, total Canadian canola supplies are about 14.1 MMT (production 2012 plus August 1, 2012 carryin). Deliveries are 13 MMT to week 42. Commericial stocks week 42 - 700,000 tonnes. Assumed farm carryover - 400,000 tonnes.

[jdepape]

FARMCo basis index down for the sixth day in a row - now sitting at 10.26 over July.

July/Nov inverse dropped for the third day in row - down to 77.00 over.

July open interest slipping as well. Longs getting out.

Like I said before - I wouldn't buy this spread (or the July outright) with your money.

And remember - don't ever, ever, ever, carry stocks through an inverse.

[jdepape]

Charlie - just got around to checking the stats. Canola deliveries to date are 11.5 mmt not 13 mmt. (13 was last year)

implies onfarm stocks of 1.9 mmt.

[charliep]

Thanks for correcting John. Senior moment. That makes things a whole lot less tight. If exports/crush move along at 200,000 tonnes per week over the next 10 weeks (2 MMT), that would put carryover at 600,000 tonnes - likely where most S&D estimates are at.

[Partners]

Hopper ..where are you getting your Anhydrous from? Trucks are running here.

[Partners]

Getting rain now..No more dust..

[cottonpicken]

bearish?key reversal?i dont agree with that tech
analysis,break below 13.50 and you've got my
attention,things look pretty good imo.

[errolanderson]

agree cotton . . . breaking the $14.50 area would break the overall uptrend.

but believe July beans have a pronounced spike top in place.

[Hopperbin]

Gotta take back last comment I dont want rain now. Still gotta plant 10 quarters of canola. I wanted rain when I worked 3 days with only 4 hours sleep each night.

[Hopperbin]

Partners where are you from and what company is supplying your anhydrous non stop?

[Hopperbin]

My dealer is Horizon there is a hickup from the trucking company supplying their tanks they are working on it I think as we speak.

[Hopperbin]

Planted 360 acres since starting at 1;30 got delivery other wise could be trying to move trucks in the mud.

[Partners]

No Anhydrous on our farm, we use a dry blend in fall and straight phos. in the spring, just watching the neighbors go with Viterra,Richardson, and Hudye..Trucks going by all the time it seems..Problems near Foam Lake though..One tank per day ...