Statistics Canada Area Estimates

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/130625/dq130625a-eng.htm?HPA"]Canada Seeded Area[/URL]

<a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/130625/t130625a001-eng.htm">Table</a>

Was done early June so may not have captured all the acreage changes as a result of seeding delays. I suspect will be pretty accurate however.

I think there are no major surprises in the report and therefore no impact on the market today. Weather and impact on yields/quality are market drivers.

[HappyFarmer]

Haven't spent much time in Sask and
Alberta so for this year, but would say
fairly close just from the info that i
get from other people. A little bit
surprised by the lentil and wheat number
though. Is there really that much more
wheat in peoples back yards????? And how
about lentils. A lot of the seed dealers
that I have talked to say there lentil
sales are a way down this year. Canola
is probably very close, still thought
maybe a hair higher but very close. At
that acreage base and normal yields we
still will not build canola stocks that
much. And basis the weather that is out
there today, trend line yields are going
to be difficult to maintain.

[errolanderson]

agree . . . fairly uneventful report.
wheat and canola acres came in at trade
expectations. soybean acres were a
little higher than expected. barley
acres were slightly lower than expected.

lentil number was considered bearish
(IMO)

wheat harvested yields stateside appear
to be coming in a better-than-expected.
U.S. crop ratings improved modestly over
the past week. wheat harvest now about
20 to 25% complete.

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny thing happening around regina. Some disease causing yellow patches. I wonder what it is. OH ITS DEAD Flooded Plants. Hm
Take Canola number down to 19 and that's it. Lots of 9 and 10s a week ago are now 6.

[bucket]

19 million acres at 30bpa(.68tpa) equals 12.92mmt production this year.

For the weather thats left to come, let's say this is a 12mmt crop.

How do the numbers work out going forward and what is the price point?

[charliep]

Will let others comment on canola. Here is an interesting article from Emalt.

World: Weather conditions essential for malting barley of which carry-over stocks are small in Europe, Canada, and Mercosur
Good weather conditions are even more essential for malting barley than for all the other grains, industry analysts said in a report on June, 3, pointing out that the acreage will shrink in Western Europe, the Ukraine and Mercosur.

The carry-over from crop 2012 is very small in West and East Europe, as well as in Canada and Argentina/Brazil. Crops must turn out good to safeguard the world balance sheet.

As of the beginning of June, malting barley premiums above feed barley were attractive for farmers, and were supported by low stocks and uncertain crop prospects, it is reported.

[errolanderson]

Hear your frustration in crop quality in
Saskatchewan, but global oilseed markets
continue their decline. From soybeans,
to soyoil to palm and coconut oil, these
market prices are deflating.

The question is; how well can canola
stand up to this outside pressure? Cdn
crush margins will likely be pressured
through 2013-14 crop year. That has to
be a concern to our crushers.

Trying not to be the bad guy, just
reflecting what is happening around us.
The market rules and dictates prices,
not anyone who talks about it.

Sensing potential new crop soybean cash
market pressure soon, should improved
growing conditions persist in the states

[charliep]

Just to high Errol's comment. Not a pretty soybean oil chart.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLZ13&domain=farms&display_ice=1&s tudies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=D"]December soybean oil[/URL]