Organic feed barley

[hobbyfrmr]

$9.50 /bushel Delivered to Loreburn, SK. FW Cobs.
I did not really ask why or the market sentiment, i just caved and sold right there.

[cottonpicken]

Because demand is compounding at 20%.

[hobbyfrmr]

Until the economy collapses and then nobody can afford it. I made it through 2008, I thought I knew the market well, I was selling to 6 buyers across the US, and after the housing bubble burst, there was no bid on organic feed barley for 14 months.
This is a similar pattern, everyone bullish, strong $US, good prices. The last time I sold feed barley over $9.00 was juuuuuust before the collapse.
Thats why I sold.
Hopefully not this time, but farming has conditioned me into a severe skeptic with a dash of pessimism.

[tweety]

Right on Hobby. Give em what they want and will pay for. Farming is awesome.

[sumdumguy]

That's what ordinary grain should be worth, seeing as #2 Durum was $7.00 in 1974. But not taking it away from you Hobby. Give em what they want.

[fjlip]

$9 canola in 1974....41 years ago!

[hobbyfrmr]

Sumdum and FJlip,
I totally agree, but I dont know what to do about it

[grefer]

It's true. Prices for conventional grains is ridiculous when compared to what it should be. The only thing keeping the house of cards together is increased production and very large machinery. I don't know what can be done either Hobby. How were your barley yields. I was through your area a number of times this summer and the crops looked very good.

[hobbyfrmr]

this was my last load of old crop barley. I did not grow barley this year. Usually I end up with 4 0 bushels/acre barley on stubble .

[pourfarmer]

Heard organic feed oats are up to $5.50. Milling oats at $6, wtf?

[hobbyfrmr]

The last time in 2007, i recall having a good crop of barley, 60 bu/acre. I contracted feed for 9.25/bushel and sold 2 rail cars in october. I was feeling pretty....smug?....because winter was going to set in and cold weather feed demand "should" increase and I thought Inwould sell into price rallys. The bubble burst and I had 20,000 bushels still in the bin, for 14 months. Not so smart anymore Finally the market broke loose and I sold for $4.90/bushel.
So, sometimes the best time to sell is when you have a buyer. The price was profitable and I thought there could be more. I thought wrong.
When prices are very high, I sell big chunks for profit and dont worry about how many $ I am going to miss out on if it goes higher.

[LEP]

Hobby those are wise words for marketing anything. Holding out for the last cent is for hedge funds.

We all know how most of those endvup.