Yellen

[cottonpicken]

Agree on deutshe.

Before 08 no work had been done on the size of banking systems and host countries GDP ratio.

10% rates on a global economy of over 200 trillion credit market debt is 20t a year interest cost payment and global GDP is 70t but would go much lower.

Some are openly discuss negative rate in the five percent range.

We are so screwed

[boarderbloke]

cotton, errol, regarding the area of agriculture. Wouldn't negative interest rates of 2-3 percent, let alone 5 percent, cause a lot of inflation for land prices, equipment, buildings, seed, chem, fert, etc

[errolanderson]

boarder . . . Europe has negative interest and deflation continues to escalate. Government debt loads are past the point of no-return. This has been the failure of central banker policy as even excessive money printing has had little impact to kickstart inflation. Now the mess is a whole lot bigger.

A deflationary spiral is very difficult to spin out of as this rare economic event perpetuates on itself. Central bankers are becoming powerless (IMO).

The piper now has to be paid regards of central bank policy/manipulation.

[boarderbloke]

My thinking was that there would be a move of cash/low return, or negative return investments,,, into anything that has an intrinsic value.

So in agriculture, that might mean land, equipment, buildings etc.

I guess you're saying deflation will supersede those possible moves. When the dust settles after deflation, and even after the price of land, equipment and buildings have dropped, you my still have some value, than if your money was in some kind of paper investment?? Any thought to that?

[farmaholic]

Control, alt, delete. ...

Task manager. ...

Reset. ...

Default. ...

Reboot. ...

I have no ****in idea what I'm talking about. But it is probably reset time.

When the currency wars fail resort to the other style of conflict resloution.

How long can you continue to kick the can down the road?

[cottonpicken]

This is where Errol and i have differed for quite some time,and he has been right for quite some time,but the decade before i was right,i ASSumed they wouldn't let a deflationary cycle take place for any amount of time because i didn't believe the system could actually handle it,and in my defence we never got what we should have got because of all the mass intervention,they where forced to fight the deflation,i successfully predicted the intervention,but unsuccessfully predicted the sediment of the market precipitants.

I thought monetizing the debt would set off a few alarm bells,silly me.

My missed short term term minuscule rate hike call was based on various geo-political economic and war cycle factors which would have put the us in a much stronger position,it would have made a lot of sense to do a quarter point to weaken your enemies strength the dollar and shore up the the treasury market,but obviously now there is an underling greater risk in the derivative/stock/bond market not just in the us but other western allies of which the consequences would have been greater.

To be honest i thought yellen would turn real hawkish last night,but i don't know what the hell you would call that display other then scary/unnerving.

I quarante you if they want their inflation they can get it.But that will be the tipping point.Whats the difference if a bushel of wheat is a pennie or a hundred dollars its all relative.

[wilagro]

cottonpicken: "I guarantee you if they want their inflation they can get it. But that will be the tipping point. Whats the difference if a bushel of wheat is a penny or a hundred dollars its all relative."

Since we don't use the penny any more, transactions are calculated with rounding off...so that theoretic bushel of wheat you refer to would be rounded down to zero. That would not be good.

[cottonpicken]

Your exactly right,i should have said "old penny",the ones they use to put copper into.

[sumdumguy]

The day I pay a bank to use my money, I just got rates from 2 banks at 2% for 3 years and 2 1/8 for 5. In five years I'm outta here.

[hobbyfrmr]

I am the opposite of sumdum. I have only enough money to cash flow farm operations. The devil on my shoulder says buy more land and machinery, travel like crazy, borrow yourself silly because nobody cares. I would live much higher on the hog and have more experiences.
The angel on the other shoulder says status quo, your doing well enough dont screw it up!