Canary seed price corruption

[sumdumguy]

I remember prices below a dime many years and 15 cents/lb. was always enticing, also 52.5 cents in 1994 (for a couple of days). So 27 cents is not bad. Like Ache says, who knows where the price will go. A lot of contracts are written for Oct/Nov, so shorts might start showing soon. Hope so.

[Oliver88]

Would be interesting to see actual supply vs demand as I'm not a canary seed grower anymore, maybe time to try again?
27 cents per pound / $13.50 per bushel seems like a historical average price

Other factors would be for farmer selling:
What were acres grown in the prairies? (Most in Sask I believe)
Average yield?
$/ acre of inputs?

Who are the main buyers now? (Louis Dreyfus and Viterra used to buy, now just brokers or small guys?)

How is the movement?

[sumdumguy]

The Canaryseed Development Commission says that Health Canada has something to do with the use of Canaryseed by humans. David Nobbs is the chairperson. He also states that the return this year is about $267/acre @ 25 cents/lb. Pretty lack lustre, but I know a large farmer who has seeded a back and forth rotation of Eston Lentils and Canaryseed since the eighties. Seems to be doing fine, expanding and enjoying low input production.

[dave4441]

Canary demand has been really soft this year and i think we front loaded some of the demand last crop year (shipped a normal 170,000 MT last year). I personally see most buyers as very complacent. Much of it is currency risk as well as competition from other countries. Bulgaria is selling cheap into Europe and Argentina has hurt us in Brazil (that is 2 of the top 4 markets). There is low margins in canary market right now. Really low and hard to move any volume. Mexico has not bought alot and may support the market at some point but i see the market as very slow for next 4-5 months.

Food use is coming but it will be along time before it has a impact on this market. These things take a bit of time to say the least.

Anyone wants to talk to me about the canary market feel free to call me at my office 1(306)931-7775. We just opened a office in Saskatoon.