Canary seed price corruption

[riders2010]

Yields are way way down yet no response for price. Either brokers or buyers are ripping farmers off.

[Guest]

Yea something is not right, they all say there buyers have backed away but keep hauling for .27 cents,

[sumdumguy]

That market is drying up because there are fewer and fewer pet birds.

[riders2010]

And I suppose the brokers and buyers are counting birds?

[sumdumguy]

Man, this site is getting belligerent.

[ColevilleH2S]

I thought acres were up 20% this year.

[riders2010]

Sumdumguy not being sarcastic but is there actual evidence that is the case?

Are acres up? I don't really know but in our area way down and I haven t heard of any good yields.

[TOM4CWB]

Riders,
To label Harvest Pressure of a thin market like canary... Price Corruption... you must admit is over the top. You could pick less accusing words of many fine people who work very hard to market Canary.

[freewheat]

I think the theory is when people get richer, they get rid of cheap to feed birds, and go for dogs and cats. Kind of like the eating meat vs. pulses when wealth happens.

I dunno though? While not 40 cents, 27 is not horrible historically AT ALL.

Cheaper crop to grow. Canary here, well the one field I saw, looked like under 20 for sure for some reason.

[Ache4Acres]

In recent years acres have been increasing, but this yields were seemingly down. Overall I would guess production was lower but maybe not by a lot.

Canary prices have always been very volatile. Much of the time for no obvious reason. Canaryseed is highly substitutable so that I think you need to look at prices of millet, corn, oats, niger, quinoa and sorghum to see how prices may be impacted. Those are mostly in high or oversupply. Canary prices will likely increase heading into the spring but not likely sooner. My 2 cents.

[sumdumguy]

I remember prices below a dime many years and 15 cents/lb. was always enticing, also 52.5 cents in 1994 (for a couple of days). So 27 cents is not bad. Like Ache says, who knows where the price will go. A lot of contracts are written for Oct/Nov, so shorts might start showing soon. Hope so.

[Oliver88]

Would be interesting to see actual supply vs demand as I'm not a canary seed grower anymore, maybe time to try again?
27 cents per pound / $13.50 per bushel seems like a historical average price

Other factors would be for farmer selling:
What were acres grown in the prairies? (Most in Sask I believe)
Average yield?
$/ acre of inputs?

Who are the main buyers now? (Louis Dreyfus and Viterra used to buy, now just brokers or small guys?)

How is the movement?

[sumdumguy]

The Canaryseed Development Commission says that Health Canada has something to do with the use of Canaryseed by humans. David Nobbs is the chairperson. He also states that the return this year is about $267/acre @ 25 cents/lb. Pretty lack lustre, but I know a large farmer who has seeded a back and forth rotation of Eston Lentils and Canaryseed since the eighties. Seems to be doing fine, expanding and enjoying low input production.

[dave4441]

Canary demand has been really soft this year and i think we front loaded some of the demand last crop year (shipped a normal 170,000 MT last year). I personally see most buyers as very complacent. Much of it is currency risk as well as competition from other countries. Bulgaria is selling cheap into Europe and Argentina has hurt us in Brazil (that is 2 of the top 4 markets). There is low margins in canary market right now. Really low and hard to move any volume. Mexico has not bought alot and may support the market at some point but i see the market as very slow for next 4-5 months.

Food use is coming but it will be along time before it has a impact on this market. These things take a bit of time to say the least.

Anyone wants to talk to me about the canary market feel free to call me at my office 1(306)931-7775. We just opened a office in Saskatoon.