I spoke with the manager of a local Canola Crusher yesterday... and we are seeing and hearing that the 2015 harvest will sneak up close to 16mmt of Canola!
Here is DTN's take on recent developments.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have faced challenges this season, with the 2015 production potential at one time pegged as low as 12.5 mmt by trade participants only to see late summer rains improve conditions to the point that trade talk is suggesting the possibility of a 15 mmt crop or higher. Previous year adjustments to stocks by Statistics Canada have also substantially increased this crop year's carry-in to 2.3 mmt. Demand has not slowed.
As seen on the attached chart, the cumulative canola crush reported by Canadian Oilseed Processors as of October 14 is above the same date reported last year and the five year average. Exports are only slightly behind year-ago levels as of week 10 and well ahead of the five-year average.
While the November/July spread has weakened over the past couple of sessions to an $8/metric ton carry (July trading above the November), this is $4/mt narrower that the $12/mt reported for the similar date last year and also narrower than the $16.10/mt average over the past five-years for this date, continuing to reflect a mildly bullish structure in this market through the end of the crop year.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com
Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson
Here is DTN's take on recent developments.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have faced challenges this season, with the 2015 production potential at one time pegged as low as 12.5 mmt by trade participants only to see late summer rains improve conditions to the point that trade talk is suggesting the possibility of a 15 mmt crop or higher. Previous year adjustments to stocks by Statistics Canada have also substantially increased this crop year's carry-in to 2.3 mmt. Demand has not slowed.
As seen on the attached chart, the cumulative canola crush reported by Canadian Oilseed Processors as of October 14 is above the same date reported last year and the five year average. Exports are only slightly behind year-ago levels as of week 10 and well ahead of the five-year average.
While the November/July spread has weakened over the past couple of sessions to an $8/metric ton carry (July trading above the November), this is $4/mt narrower that the $12/mt reported for the similar date last year and also narrower than the $16.10/mt average over the past five-years for this date, continuing to reflect a mildly bullish structure in this market through the end of the crop year.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com
Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson
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