What happened to Canola today, and where do you find release dates for reports?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Was there a crop report somewhere today that caused canola to sell off, or just following soy oil prices?

Always lots of notice for USDA reports, but stats can reports always seem to come out of the blue, is there a source of information pertinent to Canadian grain marketing news that you guys use?

Maybe this is all related to Stats can calling me last night for yields etc. Guess I should have lied.....

[charliep]

Not following as closely now but I am not aware of any major Statistics Canada releases. The survey would be for the final yield estimates released in early December.

A rule of thumb I used to carry around in my back pocket was a one cent drop/increase in CBT soybean oil prices would result in a $10/tonne change in canola futures prices. Based on about 900 pounds of canola oil (41 %) in a tonne of canola. A penny change in soybean oil futures equals USD $9/tonne change in canola product value. Adjust for currency and you get about Cdn $12/tonne.

So then the question comes as to what is moving soybeans generally and soybean oil specifically.

[cottonpicken]

I think its china.

[WPmarkets]

You could check the Western Producer's daily news and markets info at www.producer.com. Under the Markets tab on the right side of the page there are brief updates through the day. In the afternoon after the markets close we post in "Daily News" a more detailed report on the day's market developments.
Hope this helps.
Here is what we have today:

Vegoil weakness hurts canola

Posted Oct. 26th, 2015 by Ed White

Canola sold off Monday as soybean oil suffered another day of losses, weakening the overall vegetable oil crop markets.

Canola is particularly vulnerable to weakness in vegoil prices because most of its value comes from its oil content. Where vegoil prices go, canola follows.

“Bean oil has really rolled over in the last few days,” said Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.

“It was down pretty hard today, so it pulled canola down.”

Canola fell $9.50 per tonne to $466 for the November contract and $8.60 to $474.70 per tonne for January.

Soybeans are feeling pressure from a number of sources, including the unclear result of the continuing Argentina election. Farmers there have been hoarding enormous amounts of soybeans as a wealth conservation practice in an inflationary and high tax environment, but it is possible a less business-hostile leader could emerge from the run-off election, which could inspire Argentine farmers to open their bins and sell, which would be negative for prices.

However, it was an up day for wheat, but it was hard to say why because most of the present explanations for the 17 to 18 cent rally don’t make too much sense.

Some attributed the strength in Chicago wheat, which extended into Kansas City hard red winter wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat (although not as strongly for the latter, with 13 and 12 cent increases in the nearby contracts), to the heavy rains that fell on Texas over the weekend.

But those rains mostly hit unimportant wheat areas, with the main production areas to the north and those actually getting beneficial rains out of the hurricane system.

Some of the southern plains are still dry, so that is helping support prices, as are reports of Russian dryness.

Ethiopia is tendering for wheat, to which some attributed the bullish price move, even if the country doesn’t aggressively chase prices higher.

Ball said the wheat rally might have been sparked by “predator” funds that believe other speculators have large short positions and can be forced into a short-covering rally.

The U.S. dollar also weakened, causing greenback-denominated futures contract prices to appear cheaper in other currencies.

Regardless of cause, wheat rallied, and that helped push corn higher. Corn prices also benefitted from the rains, which will delay the rest of the corn harvest and slow the flow of any more corn into the sated system.

Oats only managed a one cent gain on the day.

Contact ed.white@producer.com

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks, ill be checking fhd Producer more often.

[Guest]

WP markets , here's another take on why wheat is rallying , maybe it's because we can't grow it for this price and won't anymore . there has to be some profit , there is none now , that's why acres are dropping every year

[wmoebis]

I hate it when we compare our #1 CWRS 13.5 prot to lower milling quality USA wheat. Our CPS should be based on that price, if we are going to base anything to their wheat.
We give the market cleaner, safer, higher milling quality wheat, now go get us a premium for it.

[RTK]

Our wheat is better - now go sell it for a premium. Wheat is a commodity sold by the boat load - the majority do not care if it is marginally better. If there is a premium - the Grain Co's will get it and take it, once they buy your grain it's theirs. You want a premium you have to ask for it when you price it. We have what - four major grain grain buyers in Canada - how many farmers. If you are not a willing seller at this price; the next farmer will be and eventually you will have to sell your grain. Oh yeah forgot our farm operations are large and we can exert market power. Sorry boys we are price takers end of story - yeah I am sick of these grain companies too... Someone tell me how to beat them at their own game.

[TOM4CWB]

caseih,

DTN's Todd Holtman has a different take on wheat... that the "Piling on of Short Wheat positions... Backfires on Short Sellers"... Commercials are long... Non-commercials are getting caught short.... 66,927 contracts... in Chi Dec Wht

Have a peak at this video for yourself:

<script src="http://player.ooyala.com/player.js?browserPlacement=right403px&deepLinkEmbe dCode=o3bXVpOlSxGJShugsVW05o6EV8XtWw4V%2Cs2bXVpOtS TYO1aCsP6C9z93edpwKpIZh%2CBoOTFmeDo-RpCdrs6z4V4VXHCD8GfVUj&transition=selector&view=ch annel&height=540&width=1004&video_pcode=w4bGI6bd_P WJOcG6qp8u9w-eCIZi&embedCode=o3bXVpOlSxGJShugsVW05o6EV8XtWw4V"> </script>

All the best!

[farming101]

Canola - 3 times in the last month the Jan contract popped back up from negative territory. Is it three srikes your out or more of the same? Don't know.
A close below 478 Jan the next 2 days would say more weakness possible.

[TOM4CWB]

I would agree...

Harvest pressure is waining... but it looks like the RR is behind big time this week... don't know what caused that. Elevators are plugged... can't be good for basis or prices...

[Oliver88]

Todd Holtman did mention briefly the dryness in Russia and Ukraine. Interesting to see what happens over there this year.

[vvalk]

The way El Niño is setting up and our warm fall the plan should be to hoard the canola till next year

[farming101]

Wheat - Commercial specs are usually seen as increasing net long positions on the way down and selling off the long position on the way up.
Based on that it would seem it is not yet time for a large increase.
Commitment of traders is only one piece of the puzzle.
Maybe a mini rally. Another 20 cents.

[Guest]

sure wasn't any harvest pressure around here on canola , could haul any day you wanted , anywhere , never under ten bucks ? some $10.60 right from combine . canola crop around here was probably as good as anywhere , again I ask , where is harvest pressure or "harvest surge " that was talked about to pressure farmers into selling ? I know lots guys assumed all the risk and priced lots under $10 or at $10 earlier on , they're quite quiet now