Saudi's Wheat production dries up.

[Braveheart]

Well there's the CWB mentality. Even Australian and South American farmers are stupid and sell cheap. Doesn't sound like any Aussies I ever met.

[dmlfarmer]

Braveheart, why do you think a grain company will ever pay more than what they have to? Do you honestly think farmers have more pricing power than the grain companies have? If my neighbors are willing to sell their grains for less then I am the company will buy their grain first. I either sell at the price they are offering or I go someone else or I store and hope that as supplies decline the price will go up. Even when I contract grain in the spring for harvest delivery I am still a price taker of the price the company is offering for a specified delivery date. If what I want is more than what the grain company is offering it is likely I will not be contracting with them.

[Braveheart]

It's too bad you feel so powerless dml. I'd say I was sorry , but I just don't care. Farmers that can't take control of their own destiny, the ones that just don't get it, will fall behind.

[foragefarmer]

Braveheart if nobody is selling as you say, why is the world price of wheat so cheap and MGEX has been stuck around the $5.00- $5.20 range for so long? Somebody is definitely selling somewhere!!!

[farmaholic]

Not enough Producer's with the right kind power. Financial power... How many can honestly play the "wait them out game"? Lot's of low hanging fruit gets picked first, then hopefully there is still demand for the "harder to pick stuff", its a chance you will take.

What held canola prices down last year... steady farmgate sales. At the end look where prices got to. Wash, rinse, repeat...

[Braveheart]

Not selling. Nobody's buying. US dollar in the stratosphere. World Economies weak. Can't afford to buy. Huge wheat supplies worldwide so no one needs to be aggressive buyers. Seasonal tendencies. Bottom line is supply has outpaced demand. No need for the price to rise to ration supplies.

[Braveheart]

Farmaholic, what held canola prices down? What propped them up is the question? Demand is the answer. Ample carry out, big acres, good yields, and here in Southern MB cash prices are triggering $11.00 targets every week. Pretty good given the fundamentals.

[farmaholic]

I have some acres that there is no way I will be profitable on because of lack of rain and then yield.

I don't know the exact number but probably need $8.00. And then they look at me like I just arrived from an alternate universe when I mention $7.00 as a target. Just trying to cut my loses.

On the bright side, there seems to be a positive exchange factor built into wheat prices this year. Getting quotes of around $6.25 for #1-13.5px. Heard of some $6.50 targets triggering.

[farmaholic]

Brave, I also think their buying tactics kept prices down.
#1, drop prices dramatically to instill panic and fear.
#2, raise prices to a level you know will open afew bin doors.
#3, retrace the price and re-instill fear and panic.
#4, raise prices to the previous level to open afew more bin doors.
#5, wash, rinse, repeat...

All the while have Producers sign target agreements so you know you won't have to bid any higher and have a supply. All the better get them signed to basis contracts or futures first contracts and then you really know what is coming up the driveway. Am I just to stupid to see how this benefits me?

[Braveheart]

Farmaholic, not stupid, I think you're one of the smartest posters on AV. Your paradigm re grain companies and markets makes you see what you see.

My paradigm is different. I things in a different way.

This goes for CWB supporters. Their paradigm supported what they saw. The CWB paradigm was very strong and seldom was there a paradigm shift.

[vvalk]

Here is a thought. Don't grow wheat.

[farmaholic]

Well now I better just shut-up before I plant any seeds of doubt in your mind. Lol

[Braveheart]

But the party was just starting. I gotta go to bed anyway. Major surgery in Monday and I'm tired tonight.

[farmaholic]

Unfortunately kind of the evil cereal part of the rotation. Durum will get slammed with fuzz when conditions are right in the future, fuzz is here now. Barley(Malt) doesn't do well. Canary can be tricky with flax in the rotation......so I will probably continue to grow it and bitch and moan.

[sawfly]

i can just imagine how much worse it
be now , if we had not had the good years under our belt.

at least with peas , and canola to pay bills and some money in the bank .
my hrs has basically just sat there.
over a year.

it can sit in the bin and as long as possible, grow something else.

just think how much less they would have to offer if it was our only source of funds.
and we all had to sell.