Freight Fallout Across the Seas . . . .

[errolanderson]

A segment as essential and accountable as ocean container lines are now wary and hunkering down for another fresh economic downturn.

Interesting fact: the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index is now 44% below its value during the 2008-09 financial crisis. An interesting read . . . .

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21677209-largest-container-lines-are-bulking-up-try-withstand-fresh-downturn-big-box-game?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/thebigboxgame

[sumdumguy]

The world of competition, what we lack in the cereal grains sector.

[vvalk]

Errol what is your thoughts on the USA employment and economic data released the other day? Almost certainly will see an interest rate hike and a 70-72 cent dollar. I don't think everything is doom and gloom.

[biglentil]

Baltic Dry lowest level for this time of year on record. Central planners have their backs against the wall. Its negative interest rates or war.

[bucket]

Prior to 2008 there was a push to start using containers to move grain. Maybe that idea will start up again.

To bad from the prairies you still have to deal with the railways to move them to port.

It's also interesting that ocean rates drop but railways get a rubber stamped cta increase.

[mcfarms]

A lot of grain moving from here in containers from both the new seed plant and using the old as well for that purpose.

[errolanderson]

vvalk . . . yesterday's U.S. jobs number that was nearly 100,000 above trade estimates was a huge surprise and does light-the-fire under Dec U.S. Fed rate hike talk.

But this does nothing to correct a slumping global market that simply dwarfs the U.S. economy in size.

To me, a rate hike heightens the risk of a U.S.recession in 2016. Consumer spending remains in-decline. The U.S. Fed remains in a very tight corner.

As far as a 72 cent Cdn dollar . . . don't count on it. Oil prices aren't going to lay down especially with Putin stirring the pot. In my opinion, the range for our Cdn dollar remains in a 75 to 78 cent range this winter.

[vvalk]

we will see about the world doom and gloom. as far as I'm concerned everyone is in the same boat. its overly simplistic but in the end they will just cancel out each others debt.

[mcfarms]

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/tag/alphaliner/&ved=0CCIQFjACahUKEwia64yI2_7IAhVRK4gKHQMHA3Y&usg= AFQjCNHl_ypHmSdGOY3ZHWNmNSu64cIjDw&sig2=o7dKkWiHO6 zdjQKnMzkM6QQ


Here a good report for you Errol shows the increase in shipping capacity etc.

[Guest]

sumdum. or in the fertilizer buisiness

[tipsy]

vwalk you don't think a75 cent dollar is doom and gloom. I guess you are not fortunate enough too travel the USA.
Good on ya, the rest of us will just watch as 131-133% of our Canadian dollasr just evaporate in exchange.
Oh well sucks to be us!!! Thank YOU MR. Harper...

[macdon02]

Harper isnt steering the ship anymore Tipsy, its Justine's gig as of this week. That USD chart is impressive to say the least, CAD looks like we are going back to 60ish. All monthly. If the rate hike comes in Dec lookout, USD to the moon and CAD in the crapper, which isnt the end of the world. I figure we gross an extra $100 an acre on a 50 bushel weed crop at present, pure currency and only downside is on the fert, and fuel. Iron if you're a junkie. Screw it, buy parts and a set of westward wrenches. Short grains,meats, long USD, basis will improve as CAD goes down. If the US doesnt throw blocks up on their borders it will be a small miracle, China likely dumping their corn stocks back into US ethanol plants, and If I was a US wheat mill I would be buying Canadian weed and blending to the max with local product so I could call it product of USA. Rcalf should be making an appearance soon as well. Im just not sure if BOC will follow the rate increase in Dec or tank the loonie? What's under .6170?

[Hopalong]

If some low or negative interest rate is good policy, have to ask why more would not be better?
Think US is on right track to support a return to more traditional interest rates.
Hope Canada can stay closer to US policy than European ones.
Reminds me of when wheat board and pools told us they could not sell more by lowering price and question was asked was why not raise the price.
Never got an answer.

[stonepicker]

One too many tipsy? It continually amazes me how powerful harper was, i mean he gets blamed for everything from lowering our $ all by himself, to trade deals, climate change, you name it he's the major power player around the world! Justin has big shoes to fill. Now which cabinet min. did he just name that was forced to resign in cretian's cabinet because of giving contracts to his buddy's?

[errolanderson]

Hopalong. . . . out-of-control government debt.

The U.S.is in no safe financial position to hike rates at all (IMO). If they do from intense lobby pressure and the experiment fails, this could be a disaster as Yellen would have to cut rates possibily into negative territory. Then welcome QE4 . . . and the global currency war worsens.

The outcome is this would not be good. . . .