DTN Thursday 11/19/15
Strong Ridge Builds Over Canadian Prairies, Causes Uncertainty...
Ag Weather Forum
Joel Burgio Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The weather models have been forecasting the development of a strong upper level ridge over Western Canada during the six-to-10 day period. This ridge is expected to range from the Gulf of Alaska into northwest Canada for a time. To the south of this ridge, a strong trough is expected over the western U.S. region.
Longer-term weather models show a possible colder change in the pattern that does not last very long. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
This combination would typically lead to east or northeast winds both at the surface and aloft for much of the Canadian Prairies region. Colder weather is allowed to develop, as the moderating influence of the Pacific is blocked by this ridge-trough pattern. This pattern is being forecasted by the U.S., the European and the Canadian models. However, the U.S. model features the strongest ridge among the models.
The pattern is something you would not normally expect to see during a typical El Nino winter over western North America. This makes the outlook of colder weather and drier conditions somewhat uncertain.
I would like to favor this colder solution today since it is on all three models and has been for a few days. However, what we may be seeing is a change in the pattern that does not last very long.
The weather patterns normally associated with El Nino have been stronger during the December-to-February months in some previous El Nino winters. It may be early enough in the season to allow the underlying weather pattern to muscle into the picture for a time, while the El Nino winter pattern returns once it becomes strong enough to take over again.
When you see a new pattern on the maps that you did not expect to see it is difficult to make even medium-range forecasts with any confidence. We are going to need to keep an eye on this ridge development to see if it has staying power beyond just a short period.
There are already hints on the models that suggest that the trough underneath the ridge will try to move eastward at the end of the 10-day forecast period. This may suggest that the ridge would also move east. If this were to happen, it would eventually lead to a return to Pacific flow over Western Canada and a return to the more recent weather patterns.
However, there is not enough evidence to make this forecast at this time, based on what I am looking at today and what has been on the maps during the past few days. Hopefully this pattern will sort itself out before too long.
(ES)
© Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved
Strong Ridge Builds Over Canadian Prairies, Causes Uncertainty...
Ag Weather Forum
Joel Burgio Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The weather models have been forecasting the development of a strong upper level ridge over Western Canada during the six-to-10 day period. This ridge is expected to range from the Gulf of Alaska into northwest Canada for a time. To the south of this ridge, a strong trough is expected over the western U.S. region.
Longer-term weather models show a possible colder change in the pattern that does not last very long. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
This combination would typically lead to east or northeast winds both at the surface and aloft for much of the Canadian Prairies region. Colder weather is allowed to develop, as the moderating influence of the Pacific is blocked by this ridge-trough pattern. This pattern is being forecasted by the U.S., the European and the Canadian models. However, the U.S. model features the strongest ridge among the models.
The pattern is something you would not normally expect to see during a typical El Nino winter over western North America. This makes the outlook of colder weather and drier conditions somewhat uncertain.
I would like to favor this colder solution today since it is on all three models and has been for a few days. However, what we may be seeing is a change in the pattern that does not last very long.
The weather patterns normally associated with El Nino have been stronger during the December-to-February months in some previous El Nino winters. It may be early enough in the season to allow the underlying weather pattern to muscle into the picture for a time, while the El Nino winter pattern returns once it becomes strong enough to take over again.
When you see a new pattern on the maps that you did not expect to see it is difficult to make even medium-range forecasts with any confidence. We are going to need to keep an eye on this ridge development to see if it has staying power beyond just a short period.
There are already hints on the models that suggest that the trough underneath the ridge will try to move eastward at the end of the 10-day forecast period. This may suggest that the ridge would also move east. If this were to happen, it would eventually lead to a return to Pacific flow over Western Canada and a return to the more recent weather patterns.
However, there is not enough evidence to make this forecast at this time, based on what I am looking at today and what has been on the maps during the past few days. Hopefully this pattern will sort itself out before too long.
(ES)
© Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved
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