The reason that world food demand is increasing more slowly than projected or expected and more slowly than
production is that the world population does not have enough money to buy more or to buy higher-valued foodstuffs.
Hunger and starvation are at historic lows because the simplest, most basic foods are the cheapest in human history in
constant terms. People can live on wheat and rice if they can’t afford meat and that is what billions are doing.
The reason that people don’t have enough money, for food and other essentials, is that they don’t work, or work for
very low wages or very little of the time. The unemployed may be too young or old, unskilled and unqualified, or not
inclined to labor. Or there is not enough work where they live to go round and employ everyone. Some percentage of
the population that is much below 100% can produce all the goods and services that 100% consume.
Unemployment issues are closely associated in the so-called economics profession (more like a black art) with eco-
nomic growth rates. Much of the developed world is most of a decade into various degrees of economic recession,
which does not seem as clearly a part of a cycle as in the past, especially in Europe and North America.
The mean unemployment rate for countries of the world (as many higher as lower) is 9.5%. Only two countries
(Colombia and Morocco) which are significant importers of Canadian grains have unemployment rates higher than
the mean (9.7% and 9.5%). The Trans Pacific Partnership countries that are net importers of food (Japan, Vietnam,
Malaysia, Singapore) have an average unemployment rate of 2.6%. But in the underdeveloped world, often consid-
ered to be where future demand growth is, single-digit rates are unknown. In Africa they range from 22 to 54%.
There are also serious, advanced countries that have double-digit rates (Spain, Portugal, Italy). Whatever the details,
it does not look like global employment will rebound in some spectacular way just in the near future or that if it were
to do so food demand will surge accordingly.
Causes of unemployment are greatly debated, but the single ultimate conclusion is that economic demand in the
world is not high enough and not rising fast enough to absorb the production that would result from high employment.
Full employment is not 100%, and may not even be 80% of the available workforce. Whatever it is, it is obvious that
it will never be reached on a world scale because all the labor capacity which exists or will exist will never be needed.
A prime reason is globalization. Freer flow of goods and people has allowed the cost of goods to equalize around
the world, at the level of the lowest-cost producers. If imports are cheaper than domestic costs, domestic production
shrinks and fewer people are employed. The general standard of living rises if less income is required for the necessi-
ties and even luxuries. Jobs lost to imports should be replaced by other jobs in industries that are sufficiently competi-
tive to export other goods, but only two kinds of countries (with extremely highly developed societies and technologi-
cally-superior economies or those with efficiently exploitable natural resources) have any hope of doing this. Of those
which have desirable natural resources, political and government systems often get in the way. Resource extraction is
less of an advantage in times like these, when there are surpluses of every imaginable raw material. Globalization
works admirably for the most capable, competitive and aggressive countries. It does not work well for the part of the
world containing perhaps half its population, and it will never work for perhaps a quarter of the population.
Even in the most advanced countries (and possibly especially in such countries), technology and automation are dis-
placing workers and job skills that only recently were considered irreplaceable and this is just the beginning.
The best thing we can do is to face reality and stop paying attention to this drivel about this alleged coming explo-
sion in population and food demand and how grievously the agricultural system of the globe is going to be challenged
in a mere decade or two. It is world food demand and world economic prosperity that cannot keep up with supply, not
the other way round. If progress in agricultural technology does not accelerate, or even if it decelerates as a result of
artificial and wrong-headed restrictions, the food producing capacity of the world will still cope with anything that
can happen on the demand side. The risks in the employment and food equation are war, revolution and social and
political instability arising from the difficulty more and more people in the world face in earning a living by their own
devices.
If you ask me . . .
B A C K G R O U N D E R / Morris W. Dorosh
production is that the world population does not have enough money to buy more or to buy higher-valued foodstuffs.
Hunger and starvation are at historic lows because the simplest, most basic foods are the cheapest in human history in
constant terms. People can live on wheat and rice if they can’t afford meat and that is what billions are doing.
The reason that people don’t have enough money, for food and other essentials, is that they don’t work, or work for
very low wages or very little of the time. The unemployed may be too young or old, unskilled and unqualified, or not
inclined to labor. Or there is not enough work where they live to go round and employ everyone. Some percentage of
the population that is much below 100% can produce all the goods and services that 100% consume.
Unemployment issues are closely associated in the so-called economics profession (more like a black art) with eco-
nomic growth rates. Much of the developed world is most of a decade into various degrees of economic recession,
which does not seem as clearly a part of a cycle as in the past, especially in Europe and North America.
The mean unemployment rate for countries of the world (as many higher as lower) is 9.5%. Only two countries
(Colombia and Morocco) which are significant importers of Canadian grains have unemployment rates higher than
the mean (9.7% and 9.5%). The Trans Pacific Partnership countries that are net importers of food (Japan, Vietnam,
Malaysia, Singapore) have an average unemployment rate of 2.6%. But in the underdeveloped world, often consid-
ered to be where future demand growth is, single-digit rates are unknown. In Africa they range from 22 to 54%.
There are also serious, advanced countries that have double-digit rates (Spain, Portugal, Italy). Whatever the details,
it does not look like global employment will rebound in some spectacular way just in the near future or that if it were
to do so food demand will surge accordingly.
Causes of unemployment are greatly debated, but the single ultimate conclusion is that economic demand in the
world is not high enough and not rising fast enough to absorb the production that would result from high employment.
Full employment is not 100%, and may not even be 80% of the available workforce. Whatever it is, it is obvious that
it will never be reached on a world scale because all the labor capacity which exists or will exist will never be needed.
A prime reason is globalization. Freer flow of goods and people has allowed the cost of goods to equalize around
the world, at the level of the lowest-cost producers. If imports are cheaper than domestic costs, domestic production
shrinks and fewer people are employed. The general standard of living rises if less income is required for the necessi-
ties and even luxuries. Jobs lost to imports should be replaced by other jobs in industries that are sufficiently competi-
tive to export other goods, but only two kinds of countries (with extremely highly developed societies and technologi-
cally-superior economies or those with efficiently exploitable natural resources) have any hope of doing this. Of those
which have desirable natural resources, political and government systems often get in the way. Resource extraction is
less of an advantage in times like these, when there are surpluses of every imaginable raw material. Globalization
works admirably for the most capable, competitive and aggressive countries. It does not work well for the part of the
world containing perhaps half its population, and it will never work for perhaps a quarter of the population.
Even in the most advanced countries (and possibly especially in such countries), technology and automation are dis-
placing workers and job skills that only recently were considered irreplaceable and this is just the beginning.
The best thing we can do is to face reality and stop paying attention to this drivel about this alleged coming explo-
sion in population and food demand and how grievously the agricultural system of the globe is going to be challenged
in a mere decade or two. It is world food demand and world economic prosperity that cannot keep up with supply, not
the other way round. If progress in agricultural technology does not accelerate, or even if it decelerates as a result of
artificial and wrong-headed restrictions, the food producing capacity of the world will still cope with anything that
can happen on the demand side. The risks in the employment and food equation are war, revolution and social and
political instability arising from the difficulty more and more people in the world face in earning a living by their own
devices.
If you ask me . . .
B A C K G R O U N D E R / Morris W. Dorosh
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