Slow down in AG and Oil! Ouch!

[SASKFARMER3]

Sh cotton all is fine!

[Braveheart]

SF3, i hope your sons don't read Agri-Ville. The "But unfortunately I have sons" comment might send them over the edge. Time to call Elaine Froese for some coaching.

It sounds like you could have quite a legacy to leave the sons. More than assets though, a positive attitude is priceless.

[blackpowder]

The young farmers here are all well capitalized. 3rd gen. Businessmen. Acreage or farm yard, not one new house under 3000 sq ft.
But it is funny. Farmers are the ACME Instant arsehole Pill. Just add cash!
Lost a piece of land to an owner who hasnt bought fert since 85. Going farming again at 76.
One elder owner has downtown high rise kids in laws wanting to 'farm'.
3 or 4 good years out of the last 35 and your suddenly making "too" much money. Cleaning out old truck today, found some canola quotes for $5.40 a bushel maybe 10 years old?
I knew the sky was limit was bull. Many countries people starve if no money for food. Nothing changed.
Ya the stories keep adding up from the patch. 81 all over again? For some. Much more diverse economy now. But the politics has sea changed. Oh well.

[wakopa]

I'm depressed , gonna drink at lest 6 pack , let me count ------ already passed that .

[MBgrower]

Agree with bravehart, easier farming than running a small business. I know of many who are sucessful farming, but wouldnt have a clue in running a small business. Plus how many small businesses do you see flipping hardly used machinery for 200k per item?

[furrowtickler]

Agreed the slow down is here, along with higher liberal taxes on everything that we westerners are contributing to 'climate change' 👎 and OH&S - time to get the *** out .... Marginal profit is going to get trashed witching 18 months

[jake550]

Land prices sure aren't dropping. I thought they would but I'm being proven wrong.
Not sure about rent but land sales are very strong in our area.

[Grahamp]

I hate to shine a positive light in what is a perfectly good depressing thread, but why the negativity? New crop prices, canola 10.5 ish Nexerra close to 12, Peas 8.5, winter wheat high 5's, Spring Wheat 6.5. Fertilizer is not too bad, maybe not boom times but I fail to say how you wouldn't be mildly optimistic in this environment.

[biglentil]

Boom n bust is the cycle, it booms and everyone thinks gravey train is going to keep on rolling. Then is busts and everyone thinks its never going to recover. The bottom to commodities is coming soon then sky is the limit, the dollars run has run its course.

[PrairieDude]

We'll sf3, you complain about machinery costs, but in a previous post I remember reading the custom harvester came to combine #1 lol (insert boast here) gross margins are poor, but all Friday crop reports I read my ------- is wow, just wow.. The boom may be over, but profits are still there. Take a farm vacation sir, focus on that new luxury vacation home

[Braveheart]

I agree Grahamp, all the bearish fundamentals yet prices are surprisingly decent. Not sky high but with good yields decent returns.

[furrowtickler]

I guess graham It's all in perspective. Those prices will give you an ok net return - agreed. But when new tax policies that will come into play and you loose 25% of your efficiency due to OH&S, things will be a net zero very quickly.
I guess I don't see the glass half full - only a third. Canola was still ok - a month ago, now below $10 locally. Excellent #1 HRSW has been selling for the same price or less as 10% sprouted Soft white wheat, yellow peas are still a good price for sure - but way too many wizards in the west thought they should get on the green pea gravey train caboose a year too late and fuked the market for the rest of us....
I guess just bitter that we grew very good hrsw and green peas and looking at the same price as basically feed prices or lower. Not a shot at anyone , our own fault I guess for trying to produce quality grains a year too late as well.
Your right , the prices are ok, just don't try too hard and all is good.
Again not to shoot at anyone , just a different perspective. Was thinking how the hrsw grading went this fall while cleaning out canola bins today. Some HRSW samples were downgraded to a number 2 just because they found one slightly mouldy kernel in the sample - may have been the only one in the field , but they found it. So one in trillions of seed kernels may have had mould to down grade and yet grain with 10% sprouts or more is worth the same or more?? Yellow peas sitting out for 45 extra days in the weather worth $1.50 more than excellent green peas with zero weathering? I know the excuse is all about supply/demand but this year it is out to lunch except for feed barley and malt - the spread is still worth while.
Just pointing out some of the not so optimistic guys.
Yes, returns are ok for some, but some are getting fuked over royally.
If I were growing yellow peas, any lentils, durum, malt barley, yellow mustard, specialty canola - I would be signing at least 75%% production AOG today - I agree those prices "today" are worth while - everything else sucks.
End of rant lol

[SASKFARMER3]

In the year after the peak in the 80s guys still believed land would al ways go up and bought Three are gone today and only one survived.
Yes we had a good year. First one in 10 years. Finally.
Just venting that their never really was a time the world was going to not feed itself.
It was all bull shit and we fell for it.
When it's dry we thrive. Wet we have problems.
Canola acres will be down with Manitoba going more corn and soy. Sask in lentil area will be wall to wall and good old Alberta will try anything to make money.
Industry will try to get every penny it can squeeze from us farmers.

[furrowtickler]

Things are precieved as good when you get extremely lucky - been there
We were kinda there but good prices for a few commodities can turn ugly when far below yields happen in too dry or too wet conditions happen. One early hard frost would have been a disaster- for us too . The frost gods have been on everyone's side since 2004 - makes a lot of people very very brave now

[SASKFARMER3]

2002 and 2004 Cost our farm so much money it was unbelievable how those two frost hurt us. 2003 was a poor yielder.
But yes no frost for a lot of years makes guys think their is nothing that can go wrong. It is sort of like growing a crop this year and wondering how did a farmer grow such a good crop with no rain it must be seed genetics. Ah it was 10 wet years and roots went down plus a week of smoke from fires that saved this crop.