Slow down in AG and Oil! Ouch!

[SASKFARMER3]

Sales man getting shown the door. Clean up of useless money costing staff. Over build Million dollar new dealership buildings for both oil and Ag equipment. And why all because some one got farmers excited and said the world is running out of food.
This is the Second time in my farming Career I heard this bullshit. My father thinks it was the third or fourth.
But its funny how a new bunch of farmers and oil execs enter and forget about history.
1. Farmers will always over produce to fill the void called food.
2. People never want to pay more than they have to for food.
3. Their is a cheap food policy.
4. Big Oil never will let Canada get to be number one.
5. Politics F#$#ks up most good things just ask OBAMA.

But the thing that is hilarious to this stupid farmer is the fact a new four wheel drive with hardly any changes from the model made three years ago has doubled or tripled in price in the last 10 years.
Now funny part yes the dollar screwed up sales of new as guys cant purchase the new equipment growing shit crops in Canada.
Because a over priced 2015 Tractor and a Under valued three year old machine doesn't not translate into 200000 difference. Just saying.
Young farmers will keep doing what they do for a few years if the slump continues and then pack up and move on as their wives start bugging them why not get a real job and make some money.
The farmers left will continue to get older and older.
Try to pencil out $60 $70 or $80 rent with crops that we have out their. Grow more never was the answer as some thought. Oh its a short blip. Bull Shit.
So we will all struggle Till the next big wave.
I for one am happy I am getting to the end of my farming time. New house in Maricopa or Scottsdale or Florida or Hawaii looks way better than spending on a new tractor to have that new equipment smell. Yes the dollar but hey you can live down their and rent for the time till your place is ready or right till the day your doctor tells your insurance company he cant go back any more.
Alberta and their political choice were a bad decision. But you made your bed now live with it. Only what 3 years 6 months till the next election how bad can she screw it up.
Federally we made a choice that wasn't good but let the kid learn. He cant screw up that much can he. Oh yea he can but hey the East voted for him.
Funny this last trip to the USA they have clocks now on how many more days till OBAMA is done. Whites Blacks Mexicans etc. all seem to think maybe he was a mistake.
So basically YES Virginia their isn't a boom forever and the world was never really out of food just a way to jack prices to the next level for inputs and machinery but MR farmer you still get paid your 1952 price. Ah keep smiling and farm on.

[farmaholic]

What irks me about new iron is how they continually ratchet up the price and then "program" it down. They will never roll-back the MSRP but will have to take less if they want to ever move them. We all know it is a game or Magic show with smoke and mirrors. **** em! They can always sell you over inflated parts for your old equipment.

[sk_wheatking]

you must be looking to trade something off and didn't like the quote on the difference or renewing a few lease agreements.

[SASKFARMER3]

No actually not. Was down in the USA for the last few days since harvest ended and really wondering if the time to sell was missed again. I can retire and sure don't like what I am seeing for the two things mentioned above Oil and Ag.
Watch young will leave and dads will stay then finally dads of young will leave.
Cash vs No cash hit home as wives don't like living and working for nothing.
Land is land and will always be worth something. But really retirement sure has a nice sound to it.
Sun no worries and who cares what the weather does or the markets do.
Ag is dead and so is oil the next question is how long.

[newguy]

Your rent should be penciled in before over priced seed and equipment than it will fit in with no problem.You would only have canola salesman and machinery salesman to tell they do not pencil out.

[SASKFARMER3]

Boys I rent less than a 1/3 of my acres and No I don't look at rent above $60. That's for the BTOS of the world.
Just saying with the crops out their and the rents guys are or were paying is their a reality check coming very fast.
Grow more never worked and never will work sooner or later all farmers figure it out.

[sk_wheatking]

ok, ok I give I'll join you. I HOPE LAND GOES DOWN TO 5,000 A QUARTER!!!!! BUT ONLY THE LAND WITH ASSESSMENT ABOVE 100,000. THE REST SHOULD BE LEFT. ALSO NOBODY RENTS LAND FOR MORE THAN TAXES!!!!!!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Yeah that's funny land will never go down to 5000. Reality though this bullshit boom is ****ing over that's reality.
Investors will be onto the next big thing once they realized no one is going to pay exorbitant rib no one is going to pay exorbitant renters.
But lentils and peas will be wall-to-wall. Canola wheat oats and flax all Will be in the tank wish I could grow lentils . It's the 1980s all over again oh how history repeats itself .

[Partners]

Latest land rent in this area was $80..Just 2 weeks ago..The Big guys want it at any cost..
Dealers are trying hard to sell used stuff, like the old days they come to the yard..Still have the big boys flipping near Humboldt..Must have had the Best crops ..
RED guys have interest free for 2-4 yrs on tractors..

[bucket]

The sad part is the investors will be given special treatment by the government.

Because more than likely the investors are your MPs and MLAs that can change the required rules for their investments.

Former PM Paul Martin involved with one earth.

Former governor of the bank of canada john crow involved with another group.

Emsley just about related to Wall.

Etc etc etc.

[hobbyfrmr]

Im kind of half and half on SF3 opinion. I see what you say, kind of agree, i dont care about machinery, they make it everyday. There looks to be a soump in grain prices. The farms here, lots of cash from the last few years, doing everything to grow the big crop, harvesting it and succeeding. Definitely buying and renting more. As they buy (like anyone) it will get paid off and they will have collected a large sum of physical farmland then retire like regular folks. They are the guys willing to say "yes", while others are saying "geez im not so sure right now."
They see something other farmers are missing.

[ajl]

The boom of the last few years was a phony one created by loose monetary policy and it has come back to reality. There will not be a mass exodus of young farmers this time as without the oil patch there is nothing to do in town that pays. The patch and government is what paid in town. Other jobs are for the most part fairly low pay. Farming does not look that bad in comparison. Hopefully the marijuana industry replaces the oil patch in Canada as an engine of growth.

[fjlip]

All the "young" guys with no jobs now might want to farm! They will bid up the land to get a LARGER profitable base. And they can stay home.

[farmaholic]

Define young...

[Braveheart]

I like different talk rather than doom and gloom. If you like doing what you do you find the way to make it work.

You think farm business can be challenging? Try running a restaurant. Buy a hardware store, shoe store or clothing store and see what challenges you have. Start a trucking company and see how much fun it is with regulations, labour and equipment.

Business is tough. If it was easy everybody would do it.