Slow down in AG and Oil! Ouch!

[SASKFARMER3]

Brave just saying that we all come to a realization that all industry and experts ever told us about growing more for better times was total Bull Shit!
Then it's easy to farm F$&k them if they can't take a joke!
Land wind increase in value in the next few years and rent won't go higher and it's real easy to see why some want to expand.
When you know growing a crop on so many acres can't pay for everything it's easy drop land and size or ramp it up and hope for the best!
Simply why work harder to just break even!
Aren't you just digging a bigger hole!
When it started to get dry last spring wow were some scared in here!
It was just a little dry! If we go back to normal WTF will happen!
Trudeau won't help you out.
But maybe it's when we as farmers realize the only ones who keep getting further ahead isn't the farmer but the input suppliers and equipment suppliers!
We will all get on the same page!
I'll be 86 if the next boom takes as long as the last one to come again.
Kind of makes you wonder why we do this.
Have a great day silver is up from last week wow easy money but grain is down!
Yea the bottom is here!
Ha ha ha ha

[farmaholic]

FaintofHeart.... but is kind of like no other. I can't price my product into profitability after the fact (has nothing to do with prepricing). Can't arbitrarily pass on higher production costs. When I go to a restaurant to eat I see what its going to cost me, the restaurateur has his prices on the menu, he sets the price, pay or go hungry. Services, pay the price or you dont get them..... I'm not saying other business doesn't have their challenges. Lots of failed ventures....

[Hopalong]

Had cattle grain operation for fifty years, switched to straight grain a few years ago, expanded grain.
Mistake was not to do it fifty years ago.
Theory was cattle made better use of resources and reduced production and market risk.
In practice, found that each enterprise took away from other more than it contributed.
Especially disappointed with political action from USA when that market would have meant more profitability to us.
Also with perhaps well intentioned AgriStability and other govt support programs that penalized diversification.
See future as more industrialized and larger sized operations using more sophisticated and specialized management.

[Braveheart]

Farmaholic, can't price into profitability but has nothing to do with pre pricing? There might be an issue there.

You think restaurant pricing is a slam dunk? In our town if a coffee shop puts the price of coffee up $.10 /cup the seniors revolt and take their business elsewhere or stay home.

Service businesses still have to sell their services and products. Their price has to be competitive.

We have choices that other businesses don't have. We can change what we have to sell. We can decide how much to risk on production. We have insurance and other supports that most businesses don't have and we don't have to pay the full cost on those supports.

[Braveheart]

SF3, there used to be an ag boom every 34 years. I understand your points above, I just look at things differently.

First, I never put stock in what the "experts" say. I wouldn't still be farming if I had and certainly wouldn't base future plans on their ideas.

In terms of input suppliers and equipment dealers, we use less per acre than most and deal hard for good used machinery. While we do consider them partners in what we do, we're not the farm that gets Jets tickets and other freebe shit because we don't hand over the blank cheque.

Anyone that thought the boom was here to stay is too naive to be in farming for long. High prices make low prices and vice versa and always will. We have to be structured for that.

[farmaholic]

I knew a marksman like you would take a shot at the prepricing comment. Never pass up an easy target unless the harder shot is a bigger trophy, .lol.

On a per acre basis, prepricing doesnt ensure profitability when "production" doesnt allow for it!!!
Can't sell something you don't have.

[agstar77]

The big lie, increase efficiency and productivity, you will be rewarded. Nothing could be further from the truth. All this has done has drive down prices on a real basis and raised expenditures on inputs.

[Braveheart]

Agstar, increased efficiency is the real truth. If you overlay long term commodity price charts on cost of production charts you see the trend is that commodity prices are always gravitating to cost of production. It just evolved that farmers would stay in business, yet always hoping for the bonanza crop and price, if their costs were covered.

The trick to "making it" is to be the producer with lower costs than the average.

[Guest]

well sf3 , our farm is in a much better place than it was before the boom, bet yours is also . I actually enjoy it more now than I used too . you were in Phoenix last week , I was at the beach , that's what I like about farming . go hard for a while then relax and unwind for a while . I kinda think like brave , we don't try to keep dealerships in business , buy some new , not a lot .have a real good relationship with all of them . we don't do it unless it makes sense for our farm and we don't pay the big land rent either , someone else can do that . but you are right , there is a whole lot of hurt comin real soon and for some that is the only way they can learn . just curious if you are really fed up , why not dump rented land , scale back and try that for a while ?

[farmaholic]

And it is a margin business.

I always thought that if I can get my inputs marginally cheaper than average prices and grow a marginally better crop than average and can price my production marginally better than average I should be ok.

[farmaholic]

Down sizing can be tough when there's too many fingers in the pie!!! Everyone involved needs to make a living...(in the operation, not the dealers and suppliers)

[ajl]

Brave does have a point. There is still more opportunity in Ag than in town right now. I did books for a combination restaurant and gas bar as a side job and it was not profitable either. So the business was sold and no more side job. The owner did well on the real estate transaction. There is a betting pool as to how long the new owner will last until he runs out of cash.

[LEP]

I have owned non farm businesses and if you think it is any easier than farming you are dreaming in technicolor.

There is no worse feeling than to open up shop and no one shows up. Kind of like having bin butts worth of grain, and no bids, but still have payroll in a week.

I always say to those that think it is easy "there is plenty of room on the gravy train, hop on"

That said farming is definitely not an easy occupation either. But if you don't run it like a business and with complete passion you better get out.

Everything that I do in a day, I try to do it as economically as possible and to the best of my ability. In order to compete I try to do a 100 things just a little bit better than last year.

I compete with myself not the neighbor.

[SASKFARMER3]

My rented is reasonable for rent I can live with that also 5 year deals. But seems as one gets older you either start to wise up or you want to protect what you have!
Never been to a Deere factory and I have owned a few new pieces of equip. I deal hard but that's the way I am.
Phoenix was a clean up and scout new areas! Property should be sold by weeks end! Return with dollar very good. That's why will rent for the next few. I have other options for holidays.
Now funny the comment on real estate and the restaurant. He did well in the sale. Real estate bought at right time is amazing!
Now all I am saying is the boom is done if I would have no one to take over last spring would have been my last crop. Canola end to end and quit! But unfortunately I have sons who like the life but still have to complete school and university or trade for a few years!
Oil is going to be in the tank and God help us if Alberta is the blue print of what Truedeu has in store for the rest of us!
Hawaii permanently looks better and can still farm their and supply Trudeau with real nice product!
Ha ha ha.

[cottonpicken]

I think the global economy is now out of runway and the carnage is about to go off the map in the next year.

In the seventies and then a few years back they basically moved the decimal point and I think they are about to do it again not that we will be better off.

No interest rate in the market place i cant get over the fact there is no sence of panic.