Why is Canola Price so poor

[farmaholic]

I think you hit the nail on the head Fj. Sign basis contracts, futures first contracts and they know whats coming up the driveway. Everytime YOU commit to an open-ended contact all you've done is ensure a supply. Sign a target price agreement and all you've done is commit your grain if they decide they want it. We do it to ourselves. I've even heard someone on here say they don't like DDCs- at least all is known and both are committed at the time of signing, not that one sided garbage on offer otherwise. I know a guy who signed a minus five dollar wheat basis contract last summer. Look where the basis is now(plus $45ish)...he's $50 out
of the money....ouch. But I guess no one held a gun to his head....who do you take your marketing advice from? The guy trying to buy your grain for the least possible money. ...**** me!

[stonepicker]

What are some of you expecting for a canola price? Lots were predicting 6-7 dollar canola for this fall. Canola has held up well, again, despite harvest pressure. There's money to be made with 10-11 dollar canola, at least on my farm.

[farmaholic]

When were those predictions made? Holy man, it was hot and dry in a LARGE part of Western Canada last summer. Back in June/July canola was about $530/tonne, $12.00 gross. Far cry from $6-$7!!

[stonepicker]

Couldn't find it, i guess i was delusional.

[farmaholic]

You're supposed to ask me why I didn't lock 30 bu/ac in at those prices!

[stonepicker]

haha, well i locked in too early, but i can live with it lol

[farming101]

Back on Sept 2 Tom was wondering what would keep canola price from dropping to 385.Thankfully we aren't down there, yet.

[farming101]

Actually, priced in USD canola is lower than last year at this time.
So, if you are trying to buy some US made machinery or fertilizer which is based on the US market it don't look so good.