End of The Runway and not enough power to lift off

[Klause]

I'm not talking about the ag economy...

What's my indicators? Lumber jockies in the cities have yards so full there's no room to put it, mills so full they are slowing down production to keep from running out of room.

Huge trucking companies with 30 to 50% of their fleets idle, and they haul general freight, and it's the holiday season.


Friends of my wife who work in the city, have had their wages cut, or went from full to part time.


Friend of mine who is a partner in a construction engineering firm... they went from swamped to taking rotating 6 week vacations.


On the farming front, way less machinery getting moved...


Just look on the major highways. Way less traffic.


Internationally? Look at shipping rates over water...


Look at exchange rates... new taxation policies... China's growth, and market.




forage, there's lots of money to be made, but if you're sitting on cash when the big thing happens you're going to be wiped out.


Not my family's first rodeo... but this will definitely be the big one.

[ajl]

Things are not really that bad right now. Will make do with spending a little less. The 8 year old car and 10 yr old Dodge diesel will soldier on for another year with a few minor repairs. The economy doesn't have to boom all the time. Biggest problem with people doing that is tax revenue for government falls and government debt in Canuckistan will expand like a mushroom cloud over the next 10 yrs.

[hobbyfrmr]

I am buying shares in rope companies.

[biglentil]

baltic dry index(ocean freight index) lowest in recorded history. This is what happens when those pulling the strings shut off the money tap. Allows them to accumulate hard assets on the cheap before they crank tap back on. Its 08 all over again perhaps uglier, but what would you think would happen. The same cheap credit that got us in the 08 mess continued. Whats going to happen next lower interest rates and heavy money printing because we know foresure Trudeau has his foot on the spending gas peddal.

[biglentil]

What does well when economies sour? Can look at places like Detroit for inspiration. Hobby is on the right track with rope lol, booze does great, weapons manufacturers tend to do well, payday loan companies flourish, security companies boom, im sure antidepresants will be in high demand as well.

[agchat]

"forage, there's lots of money to be made, but if you're sitting on cash when the big thing happens you're going to be wiped out."
Klause I guess we all have our ideas of what could happen if it gets crazy out there. You hear some saying the same as the remark you just made, yet after talking to a what i consider a wealthy smart business man, who owns land, buildings, and at one time a very successful business, this was his answer " if it gets really ugly out there, I would rather be sixty years old sitting on cash, than thirty years old walking on borrowed time"

[farming101]

There will only be a problem if there is a shortage of goods buy. No shortage of money. Worthless money being used to purchase scarce commodities and goods equals Weimar republic.

[cottonpicken]

You stole my runway line lol

I'm coming up on twelve years of this and I never thought it would get this weird seven years of zero percent and a two hundred plus trillion dollar credit market with governments spend 30g per person per year.

You guys need to understand the world has never ever been here but when it has been close its ALWAYS been war.

[crusher]

Or............a person could think positive. Set some goals, try to achieve them. Help out others and the less fortunate. Try and raise the bar that way. It's U.S. Thanksgiving, we can be thankful too. I'm thankful its going to be:
7 today instead of -5
Eskies in the Grey Cup
Get to haul my January wheat contract next week
Can afford to go to a warm climate for a week a month over the winter
Have a social gathering on the calendar every weekend for the next month
Yellow pea prices are awesome
Canola over $10
I can go on and on

[farmaholic]

Pardon my ignorance but if "war" is the reset button, why can't they hit a reset button without the waste of human lives. How the **** can governments and people borrow money without caring if it ever gets paid back? Money has no conscience but those in control of it ****ing well should! What have you "done without" in your life because you "couldn't afford it at the time"? If it's as simple as wiping the slate clean, what holds most people back? We've gone far too long without people "wanting", if they "desire" it or think they "need" it, they get it.
Affluence will breed apathy.

[riders2010]

I don't have any yellow peas and some of my shitty 10 canola is in the field under snow.

Yippee!!!

[chuckChuck]

I know many of you are tired of my references to what happened in Norway with their resource boom. But it is worth noting that Norway strategically decided to put away a trillion dollars of savings so that future generations could benefit from a one time resource such as oil and gas.

Statoil was and is a model for the world, of how to develop a resource with greater benefits for citizens and society as a whole.

The model in North America is deeply flawed as we have been giving away our resources too cheaply and now that the gravy years are gone hard times resume once again.

Canadians and the governments they elect, seem incapable of planning well for the coming changes. Booms are always followed by busts. Timing is always the question.

Industry has too much influence on governments. Oil executives and the oil industry over spent. Why not plan conservatively for the future and make sure we don't overly reward shareholders and executives in the good times and plan for the coming changes.

Market forces don't work well for long term planning. That is why you need governments who act in the best interest of citizens to make the difficult decisions.

Over reliance on resource based growth is a recipe for pain. We need sustainable industries and jobs that don't spend all the capital or degrade the resource.

There will lots of jobs created in research and development and in the building of green energy infrastructure. Alberta and Saskatchewan are already moving in those directions.

Norway will do just fine. Alberta???