Agriville forecasts of the end of the world have been greatly exaggerated

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Reading posts here lately almost makes one want to go and end it all. I will dare to offer a different perspective.

The bad news is that humanity has a whole bunch of serious problems to deal with right now. The good news is that ALL of them involve arbitrary numbers on paper or digital. But fundamentally, humanity has never had so little holding us back.

We have no plagues, or incurable infectious diseases running rampant. No world war ( yet), in fact, the world has never been so peaceful, inspite of what we might see on the media. The earth is acting very benign compared to virtually it's entire history. No big volcanoes, earthquakes, megadroughts, asteroid impacts, ice ages, epic floods, storms or hurricanes, magnetic reversals, solar flares.
We haven't run out of oil, or copper or iron ore or reached peak food, or any of the other necessities of life, quite the opposite. We have excess of everything. For most of humanities history, starvation has been a reality of life. Most of our complaints revolve around an excess of food. We have excess energy of all types, we won't freeze in the dark this winter. Real estate prices are dropping, apparently we have enough housing for all, and enough farmland to grow excess food. Very few absolute monarchies or dictatorships crushing their people. Much of the world no longer is oppressed religious doctrine, science rules in most fields, as does freedom of speech and religion. Most of our history that has not been true, and has held back progress.



Whereas all of our perceived problems involve numbers on the wrong side of the ledger.

Assets and labor have been mispriced, creating what we are calling debt. But everyone and every country is in debt. With no hope or expectation of ever paying it off, in fact it is a mathematical impossibility. This is MAD, mutually assured destruction except it is financial, not nuclear. One domino can't fall without all of them falling. Whether by intricate conspiratorial design, or simply by gross incompetence( I favour the latter), The result is a world paralyzed by debt and despair.

We have built all of the infrastructure we need to live a tremendous life. We didn't borrow the funds, or materials or labor from some extraplanetary banker, who will come and repossess it all if we can't make the payments. All of the resources came from earth and our hard work extracting, refining and building. It will still be there if every country, company and individual declares bankruptcy. If Canada was the only country with debt and deficit, then we would have a problem, but we all face the same problem, with the same causes. The inevitable solution is wiping the slate clean, whether we do it voluntarily and coordinated, or one at a time, it will happen. It may happen by default, or by inflation, but it is inevitable, and the sooner the better. And the knowledge, and machines, and technology, and buildings, schools, hospitals, roads, bridges etc. will still be there.

Humanity has survived Ice Ages, depressions, mania's, plagues, megadroughts, desertification of most of the cradle of civilization, nuclear brinksmanship, 2 world wars, tsunami's, global cooling from volcanoes, asteroids, peak oil ( how many times already?) over population(how many times already?) peak food, and peak everything else countless times, religious zealots trying to create the end times, religious wars started by all sides, nuclear power plant meltdowns, pollution of every type, Justin Bieber and Celine Dion. I think we will survive a debt implosion too, and be better off for it. Learn a lot from it, and probably get our priorities straight at the same time, I bet AGW won't be a concern for a while then. Financial armageddon has been promised for so long that I've lost track. The can has been successfully kicked since at least the early 70's this time around, so I'm not holding my breath this time.

Anyone planning for the big crash has missed opportunity after opportunity. And I know lots of them. How do we know what form the crash will take, and what will be on the other side. The best preparation we can make is to be friendly and generous to your neighbours in case of lawlessness or shortages, and obtain skills and education that can be applied if one has to start over again. Gold, art, antiques or gemstones can't be eaten or burned for heat, currency could be worthless, land is virtually indefensible, investments really only exist on paper.

Yes, there is fighting between religious sects in the middle east, as if that is something new.... The world is possibly getting warmer( as it has been for 20,000 years), at night, in upper latitudes, in winter, I think we will continue to adapt to that, if not even appreciate it. A bunch of people want to move to our country to enjoy our problems instead of theirs, tells you a lot right there. Governments are out of control, hungry for power and taxes, what else is new? They will take it too far, the people will revolt, reset, happens over and over again throughout history, nothing is permanent, the pendulum swings too far each way.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

For the Cliff's notes version, what I was trying to say is that all of our problems could be solved with the stroke of a pen, or a keystroke. They are all financial in nature, not fundamental. Things got built, food was produced, oil was extracted, whether we did so at a profit or loss, with debt or cash, doesn't change the outcome. No one threw hundred dollar bills down an oil well to get oil to come out, never to be seen again. Just human labor.

[hedgehog]

The property ponzi scheme is the wests problem.
houses are now too expensive to live in.

[oneoff]

Maybe some prefer to ignore the trends and concentrate on their own present situation. And those who will only see signs of depression amongst those expressing concerns are seriously misguided and misinformed.

I see rock bottom as a possibility in the near future.

Like getting ready to jump off the cliff in Paris....or calling important long term public meetings where apparently not one person out of some 1600 eligible ones can be convinced or encouraged to come voice their concerns. That's the stage we are at in town and rural municipal government. Can't even find another municipal councilor in a whole municipality!!!! But arguably there is nothing much wrong.

And it isn't that we are talking abstract regulations .... its day to day requirements that will start in weeks.

I see not enough potential tax payers to look after too many who should be retiring and turning the show over to younger generations. Maybe even the will to work as was work was seen to be in the past.

And lack of planning for the last "ten or so years" of everyone's life. That one crops up time after time after time. Just for those who have neglected to think about that stage.

And especially the myriad of regulations, certifications and maybe well meaning protections and requirements that manage to evolve into going overboard on the path to protecting everyone on every front.

To the point where we either give up or forget how to survive on your own skills and ingenuity.

But there remain a few persons and groups who have longer projects and business plans that sometimes manage to crawl through the obstacles and paperwork that effectively stifle most innovation, growth and development.

[Hamloc]

So basically we are just supposed to sit back be happy and say nothing while our elected governments piss it all away. Really!!!

One quick rant, Obama has almost doubled the American deficit in 7 years taking it from 10 trillion to over 18 trillion. This same president is taking an entourage of 500 people to the Paris climate summit. Does this sound like someone who gives a damn about the environment or the taxpayer? But like you say it can all be fixed with a one stroke of a pen. Don't worry be happy!

[sumdumguy]

Doomsday thinking is self-destructive thinking and psychological theories believe that it is a defence mechanism used to mask other problems. As long as you don't go all-in on gloom and doom, I think it's ok to practice a little caution, but the problem with this thinking is that if you make daily and life decisions based on fear of doomsday, the opportunities that you miss out on you may regret one day. Back in 2008, based on my gut instinct I maintained that the US has huge inner strength to come back like nothing. Doomsday thinkers predicted the end by one date, then a bit later. These "predictions" went against my gut but they build fear in you. Consequently I made decisions based on self-protection, my friend said that's bunk and bought every US stock that was slaughtered and guess what? I know a guy who sold his farm and business in 2002 and followed Jim Sinclair, bought $500 gold. Onward to the gold promised land for awhile, but did Jim predict the crash in gold. No, but I did. Been there-done that in 1980. When people start lining up to buy gold-short it. If you really believed that doomsday would come, you'd be in the bush, picking berries and hunting bears for food. Time to think positive. The Internet is full of guys who have nothing better to do than be boogie men. That's all they are. Go with your gut. You have a 50% chance of being right. Have a great winter in the shop building, inventing, designing. My crystal ball sees no doomsday in your future. None at all. Stay out of the bush.

[ajl]

The fix that you describe will leave savers in the poor house and debtors become rich. How will you ever have a functional economy again? If money can be borrowed and not repayed why would anyone work ever again?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

ajl, you just described what we are doing currently. ZIRP, or NIRP. Bail Ins. Inflation. All punish the savers, reward the debtors. I never said it is the right thing to do, but it does appear to be the inevitable outcome.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Quote Hamloc "So basically we are just supposed to sit back be happy and say nothing while our elected governments piss it all away. Really!!!

One quick rant, Obama has almost doubled the American deficit in 7 years taking it from 10 trillion to over 18 trillion. This same president is taking an entourage of 500 people to the Paris climate summit. Does this sound like someone who gives a damn about the environment or the taxpayer? But like you say it can all be fixed with a one stroke of a pen. Don't worry be happy!"

Hamloc, I vehemently disagree with the way governments operate, regulate, tax and spend. I think if one country, preferably our own, were to get their house in order, remove red tape and regulations, create a business and worker freindly tax regime while making it uncomfortable for anyone wishing to live off the government teat, the entrepreneurs, investors, and honest hard working ambitious people of the world would beat a path to our door.
What are governments really pissing away? Money, and they aren't pouring it down a black hole. If it was only Obama, the US would have a problem, such as loss of confidence, massive inflation measured in USD. But EVERYONE is doing the same thing, therefore the USD is getting stronger. Inspite of the ridiculous and policies and spending of Obama, the world wants to own US dollars, bonds and stocks over all others. No one is operating in a vacuum.

Do you see a way to make all creditors whole again? Whether by default or inflation, creditors will end up getting paid by pennies on the dollar.

I think our best hope is to experience enough financial pain that we learn the lesson, then wipe the slate clean and start over again. If tomorrow we all wake up and are told that wealth redistribution has taken place overnight, we are all now equally wealthy/poor, that within days, the proper imbalance would return, as the ambitious make money from the lazy.

Do you see anything else holding humanity back except governments and monetary policies? With the growth of technology, we only need a small percentage of really smart ambitious people to provide for the needs of a lot of other dead weight. The current mantra is to try to employ all of them, to what ends? I think that is what we have to wrap our collective heads around on the other side of the crash. We no longer need full employment, in fact it is likely dragging us down. How we do it, and how a handful of very productive people can be kept motivated to provide the needs for millions more to sit in a basement getting drunk/stoned while playing video games and watching football, is a question I don't have the answer to. But I expect it is better for humanity than having them work for big government providing only a detriment to productivity, as is the case now.

[cottonpicken]

Hope your right Sum but your not. The older people already ****ed the younger people. You borrowed from the future and standered of living has been in decline for some time. Minimum wage was around 20$ purchasing power of today in the sixties And there is no way in hell young people will get to enjoy the social programs the old gifted themselves.

And when the default and restructure comes which it sure the hell will who will take responsibility?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Oneoff said "I see not enough potential tax payers to look after too many who should be retiring and turning the show over to younger generations. Maybe even the will to work as was work was seen to be in the past. "

That is exactly the problem we need to figure out how to solve. But here is where I disagree with conventional wisdom. Those few remaining taxpayers are capable of producing countless times more food, energy, manufacturing, infrastructure than ever in the past. We no longer need full employment to maintain our standard of living. Look at how much food each of us can produce compared to a few generations ago. The same is true in every industry. Look at the current glut of oil, grains or metals. All accomplished during times of high unemployment.

But we have government fighting this trend every step of the way. They are promising to create jobs, subsidizing obsolete industries, and inefficient businesses. creating more regulatory agencies to employ more people to be parasites on the few who genuinely produce something. Are we really better off having them in the workforce?

Is it a tax base that is not big enough, or is it the value we put on those tax dollars?

Would you and I be able to maintain the will to work, to provide food for thousands who might never do a productive thing in their lives, if we had the potential to earn a much higher standard of living? I would say that that is what we are doing right now isn't it? We all chose to be farmers instead of civil servants. No on assigned us to this profession then took away our mobility.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

cottonpicken, "Hope your right Sum but your not. The older people already ****ed the younger people. You borrowed from the future and standered of living has been in decline for some time. Minimum wage was around 20$ purchasing power of today in the sixties And there is no way in hell young people will get to enjoy the social programs the old gifted themselves.

And when the default and restructure comes which it sure the hell will who will take responsibility?"

Doesn't that just make it more likely that the young people will revolt and say we are not paying a debt which we didn't create? Ask why should we be living in a world awash in resources and labor, yet have a lower standard of living just because of numbers on paper? Won't they be the ones to revolt, screw the elderly who saved. And what are savings, just the other side of the debt that they accumulated to have their lifestyle.

[farmaholic]

AF5, Sometimes I think to myself, people should ask themselves if they actually "made a difference" at work today, were they productive, contributing, "earning" their wage?

Answer it honestly! Would have you been missed if you weren't there today, for a week, a year...

Could one person functionally and effectively do the job of two or three of the staff?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Again, I ask, someone show me one Fundamental limit to growth that humanity is up against today? I concede that exponential growth is mathematically impossible long term, but from where I stand today, we haven't reached the limits of any resources, or medical research or creative ways to predict or mitigate against natural disasters.

All I see are governments trying to eliminate the natural and vital business cycle. Causing untold unintended consequences. Namely debt and a prohibitive tax burden.

If a visitor from the distant past, or a foreign planet landed tomorrow, and we had to try to explain to them how terrible the economy is, and the explanation involved these arguements:
-We have too much energy, food, housing, etc.
-All of these necessities and a whole lot of luxuries can be provided by progressively fewer people.
-Everyone owes eachother arbitrary figures on paper, which they are equally unable to make good on. So we can't exchange these necessities and luxuries.
Do you think this visitor might be able to think of an easy solution?

[cottonpicken]

Have you ever tried talking to people about this. Nobody even knows how the system works let extrapolate logical outcomes which of course requires historical perspective.

Canada was minutes away from a fAiled bond auction in the nineties.

How many people out of a hundred no that and what it actually means.

Austerity had come and John and Paul where forced to act because our fiscal house was in shambles. Now we are much worse off but luckily everyone else is two and fiscal monetary policy has gone full retard.

The natural inescable forces of the market will overcome anything we have put off.

Like I've said before unless tech saves us. Theoretically we could get to near zero labour and completly money free with everything we want.