CGC Numbers

[rain]

Charlie the CGC put out some weekly handling exports and crush numbers. They show wheat and durum as two categories. Do you know if the the wheat numbers are all wheats or all wheats except durum.

The weekly numbers I am talking about are at this address. http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/pubs/grainstats/gsw_2-e.asp

[charliep]

The wheat column (first one) is for wheat excluding durum - you have to add the two columns to get the all wheat volumes.

I encourage people to look at this table. A pretty dramatic indication of the impact of the drought on the agriculture/the grain handling industry.

[rain]

Charlie do you have any idea why the domestic use of wheat is so far behind forecasted. Domestic use of wheat is some 36% of forecasted at week 27.

What do you think.

[TOM4CWB]

Rain;

With "Exports - Crop year to date" of just wheat... and obviously this is controled by the CWB... to be down on exports... 4.5mmt from last year at this time...

It has to be that the CWB shipped virtually nothing(a very small historical value) at the peak of the wheat market...

This cannot hold great promise for the pooling accounts maintaining the PRO value!

[rain]

Tom what I am looking at is the domestic use of wheat. The export levels are not that bad and can probably be made up. The domestic use of wheat is terrible. If I am looking at the numbers correctly we will carry out far more wheat than forecasted. This is a situation Tom where you need to foreget exports what has happened to domestic use.

[charliep]

Always embarrassed when I get asked a question I should know but don't (I had to phone CGC). This number reflects shipments out of the licenced elevator system to the non board market only (domestic feed wheat and feed barley).

Feed wheat number is way down as you say but reflects more direct sales to feed user versus elevator deliveries - particularly in Saskchewan where wheat would have been delivered direct to hog barns and a small crop/a very high CWB PRO signal (we'll see if it stays there or continues to slip).

How much corn is getting used in Alberta hog barns? A very interesting year that is testing the innovativeness of feed users.

[rain]

Charlie are you saying the domestic use of wheat is only nonboard wheat. Where does the domestic use of CWB wheat show up. Is this in the Exportable wheat category.

If the domestic use of wheat number is nonboard wheat used domestically the non board wheat market could get slammed here as soon as the reality of of supplies kicks in.

[rain]

Rain I have talked to two flour mills and they are saying that the CWB are making it nearly impossible for them to source #1 or #2 milling wheat from them. Thats why the domestic numbers are down the CWB has effectively removed the domestic millings from adding value so the board has some grain to export to their very good customers.

The CWB tells us they support value added in Western Canada. HA! HA!

[rain]

Kernel do me a favour phone your flour millers back and find out if they are making less flour this year?

If domestic milling is off by 63% we have a problem here that know one knos about yet.

Charlie I hate to insinuate your old but you have been in the industry awhile what do your contacts say.

[rain]

Charlie I was under the impression the domestic use of barley in the CGC numbers was a combination of malt(Domestic) and feed barley. Can you tell me what barley this is?