CGC Numbers

[rain]

Charlie the CGC put out some weekly handling exports and crush numbers. They show wheat and durum as two categories. Do you know if the the wheat numbers are all wheats or all wheats except durum.

The weekly numbers I am talking about are at this address. http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/pubs/grainstats/gsw_2-e.asp

[charliep]

The wheat column (first one) is for wheat excluding durum - you have to add the two columns to get the all wheat volumes.

I encourage people to look at this table. A pretty dramatic indication of the impact of the drought on the agriculture/the grain handling industry.

[rain]

Charlie do you have any idea why the domestic use of wheat is so far behind forecasted. Domestic use of wheat is some 36% of forecasted at week 27.

What do you think.

[TOM4CWB]

Rain;

With "Exports - Crop year to date" of just wheat... and obviously this is controled by the CWB... to be down on exports... 4.5mmt from last year at this time...

It has to be that the CWB shipped virtually nothing(a very small historical value) at the peak of the wheat market...

This cannot hold great promise for the pooling accounts maintaining the PRO value!

[rain]

Tom what I am looking at is the domestic use of wheat. The export levels are not that bad and can probably be made up. The domestic use of wheat is terrible. If I am looking at the numbers correctly we will carry out far more wheat than forecasted. This is a situation Tom where you need to foreget exports what has happened to domestic use.

[charliep]

Always embarrassed when I get asked a question I should know but don't (I had to phone CGC). This number reflects shipments out of the licenced elevator system to the non board market only (domestic feed wheat and feed barley).

Feed wheat number is way down as you say but reflects more direct sales to feed user versus elevator deliveries - particularly in Saskchewan where wheat would have been delivered direct to hog barns and a small crop/a very high CWB PRO signal (we'll see if it stays there or continues to slip).

How much corn is getting used in Alberta hog barns? A very interesting year that is testing the innovativeness of feed users.

[rain]

Charlie are you saying the domestic use of wheat is only nonboard wheat. Where does the domestic use of CWB wheat show up. Is this in the Exportable wheat category.

If the domestic use of wheat number is nonboard wheat used domestically the non board wheat market could get slammed here as soon as the reality of of supplies kicks in.

[rain]

Rain I have talked to two flour mills and they are saying that the CWB are making it nearly impossible for them to source #1 or #2 milling wheat from them. Thats why the domestic numbers are down the CWB has effectively removed the domestic millings from adding value so the board has some grain to export to their very good customers.

The CWB tells us they support value added in Western Canada. HA! HA!

[rain]

Kernel do me a favour phone your flour millers back and find out if they are making less flour this year?

If domestic milling is off by 63% we have a problem here that know one knos about yet.

Charlie I hate to insinuate your old but you have been in the industry awhile what do your contacts say.

[rain]

Charlie I was under the impression the domestic use of barley in the CGC numbers was a combination of malt(Domestic) and feed barley. Can you tell me what barley this is?

[charliep]

I checked some definitions and found the following.

"Grain Statistics Weekly contains weekly and crop year to date movement of principal grains and oilseeds from Canadian farms for domestic processing and exports, stocks in various commercial facilities, grain prices and feed grain handlings."

Domestic disappearance is grain that has delivered to/stored in a CGC licenced elevator and has been shipped out to a Canadian/domestic customer. In the case of wheat/barley, this could be CWB grain or non board feed grain.

I used another source (Supply demand tables released by Statistics Canada after Dec. 31 stocks report) and it shows domestic wheat processing in line with a year ago during the first 5 months of the crop year (1.27 MMT).

Malt barley doemstic disappearance (Aug. 1 to Dec. 31) are shown to be 100,000 t, similar to the same period in 2001 but well but well below the 140,000 t in 1998 and 1999. Malt product exports are running at similar levels to the previous year/history. Another interesting note is Canada imported 120,000 t of barley during Aug to Dec., double last year and almost 10 times the previous three years.

As indicated previously, the major slow down in domestic deliveries has been on the non board/feed side. A person also has to know how the grain companies are reporting board liabilities, etc., etc. etc. Numbers are only as good as the information provided.

IMPLICATION - My guess is the millers are being provided the volume of product they need (not necessarily the grade they want). The CWB has historically restricted access to certain grades of wheat to satisfy export customers. Likely the case this year. I can only assume the millers are happy to give up this right given the Canadian National Millers Association strong support of single desk selling.

The maltsters are a different story and will continue to lag previous years processing levels (no malt barley/uncompetitive price).

[chaffmeister]

You have to be careful when looking at the CGC stats for wheat and barley. The summary table that rain was referring to is found on page 3 of the CGC weekly stats book (CGC publication 420.3). Here we find (up to week 27):

Year to date domestic wheat disappearance = 1,379.9 (thousands of tonnes)
Year Ago = 2,102.0

Year to date domestic barley disappearance = 1,160.5
Year ago = 1,292.7

These figures include ALL “commercial disappearance”, which represents documented shipments from CGC licensed facilities (primary elevators or terminals (Thunder Bay) or Transfer elevators) to a domestic consumer. If the consumer is also a licensed facility, it technically does not show as “disappeared” until the stocks are reported to the CGC as used.

The important point to note here is that these numbers reflect ALL disappearance – both CWB and non-CWB.

Page 13 of the weekly covers non-CWB stats for wheat and barley. Here we see:

Commercial disappearance of wheat = 456.8
Year ago = 529.2
Commercial disappearance of barley = 604.9
Year ago = 676.1

This is ONLY grain that was in the CGC commercial system, and it does not include the majority of the non-CWB feed trade that doesn’t go into an elevator.


To figure out the commercial disappearance of CWB grains, simply subtract the non-CWB from the total. This gives:

YTD domestic disappearance of CWB wheat = 923.1
Year ago = 1,572.8
(A drop of 41%)

YTD domestic disappearance of CWB barley = 555.5
Year ago = 616.6
(A drop of 10%)
(I don’t know whether the CGC captures the “disappearance” of the malt barley imported from Europe last fall.)

The other thing to remember about the CGC stats – take them with a grain of salt. We have found numerous errors over the years and often the numbers are “revised” from time to time.


This begs some questions - since as charlie says, Ag Canada data shows wheat milling about the same as last year, is the CGC data wrong? Where does Ag Canada get their figures? Are the millers eating into inventories? Are they importing wheat?

[chaffmeister]

Rain: MY answer is confirmed by what charliep and chaffmiester have stated.

[TOM4CWB]

Chaffmiester;

I really have to wonder if the CWB sold any wheat in Sept-Oct 02, at the highest prices?

From the stock numbers, if we take carry over July 31 tonnes, and subtract the actual shipped wheat so far since Aug 1, 02... plus the fact that the 2001-02 pool shipments don't end till some time in October 02... this leaves a very small amount of shipped 2002-03 in the pool accounts.

Does anyone understand how Chairman Ritter proclaimed 45% 2002-03 CWB grains exported by Dec 31, 02 could be possible?

DOes this mean that CWB exports will even be smaller than anyone thought?

I guess the CWB will depend upon net interest earnings to be the risk management for them this year, and with the profit from PPO contracts, they can still show decent prices... no matter how they sell our wheat!

Now that's performance...!?