Ag Weather Forum
Todd Neeley DTN Staff Reporter
Monday 11/16/15
Scientists: Effects of Warming Arctic on Corn Belt Weather Unexpected
LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Many scientists believe Arctic warming and loss of sea ice in part led to last winter's so-called Polar Vortex and weather patterns responsible for dumping record amounts of snowfall in the Northeastern United States.
Though climate models predicted Corn Belt regions would become hotter and drier, in the early 21th century, the climate became "more favorable for corn production in the middle latitudes, and it has become wetter," Marty Hoerling, a climate scientist with the physical sciences division at NOAA, said. (DTN file photo by Elaine Shein)
...
"Climate researchers presenting at the Nebraska Innovation Campus say they have been surprised Corn Belt weather has not reacted to what they say is a warming planet and subsequent harm to yields. In fact, if anything, they said any change in climate has resulted in milder and wetter Corn Belt summers -- both of which are beneficial to crop yields, especially corn.
Marty Hoerling, a climate scientist with the physical sciences division at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, based in Boulder, Colorado, said although there is no reliable ground-level temperature data in the Arctic, overall warming is "affecting a larger surface warming of the Arctic than the rest of the world, and that has accelerated because sea ice is melting."
Models and available data on the ice melt show Arctic ice decline in the late-summer months is averaging about 13% per decade, Hoerling said, estimating more than 50% of that is human-caused.
"Probably not all we're seeing is human induced," he said, attributing much of the melting to "natural variability" which he says still "rules the roost."
What's more, Hoerling said, potential weather links to "Arctic amplification" in the middle latitudes including the Corn Belt is "weak."
Hoerling said Arctic temperatures have averaged 1 degree to 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer between 1980 and 2010. "The pace is much more dramatic at this time," he said.
Though climate models predicted the Corn Belt regions would become hotter and drier, Hoerling said that in the early 21st century, the climate became "more favorable for corn production in the middle latitudes, and it has become wetter.
"It looks like nothing like the story we hear," Hoerling said. "It has been a climate surprise."
NORTHEAST WINTER
Judah Cohen, principal scientist for the Climate Analysis Group in Newton, Massachusetts, said last year's record snowfall in the Northeast likely is caused by warming in the Arctic. Snow cover has been on the increase since 1988, he said, while Arctic ice has been decreasing since 1998.
"The snow cover is unexpected," Cohen said, based on climate models predicting changes in climate. "Last year was the highest snow cover on record for the Northern Hemisphere. It is especially surprising and not expected. When I was in graduate school, we thought snow cover would have been on a death spiral -- very unexpected."
What has occurred in the middle latitudes, including Corn Belt states, he said, is milder winters have become more common as the Arctic warms from October to March. "We tend to get more extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Cohen said.
Those events include more frequent heavy rain events in the Midwest.
Cohen said the unexpected effects of a changing climate mean scientists need to better hone scientific models and expand research.
"I think there are things we don't understand," he said. "We've reached a temperature where snow should be slowing and it's not."
This whole 'Climate Change' fable... concentrating on 'Human Mitigation efforts to reduce C02'... when Climate projections are clearly off side to real climate conditions... should have caused global re-examination of future climate trends. Instead... ignoring present weather trends... is the hall-mark of Science predictions for future Climate Change... like the more recent building of the AntArtic Ice Cap.
Todd Neeley DTN Staff Reporter
Monday 11/16/15
Scientists: Effects of Warming Arctic on Corn Belt Weather Unexpected
LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- Many scientists believe Arctic warming and loss of sea ice in part led to last winter's so-called Polar Vortex and weather patterns responsible for dumping record amounts of snowfall in the Northeastern United States.
Though climate models predicted Corn Belt regions would become hotter and drier, in the early 21th century, the climate became "more favorable for corn production in the middle latitudes, and it has become wetter," Marty Hoerling, a climate scientist with the physical sciences division at NOAA, said. (DTN file photo by Elaine Shein)
...
"Climate researchers presenting at the Nebraska Innovation Campus say they have been surprised Corn Belt weather has not reacted to what they say is a warming planet and subsequent harm to yields. In fact, if anything, they said any change in climate has resulted in milder and wetter Corn Belt summers -- both of which are beneficial to crop yields, especially corn.
Marty Hoerling, a climate scientist with the physical sciences division at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, based in Boulder, Colorado, said although there is no reliable ground-level temperature data in the Arctic, overall warming is "affecting a larger surface warming of the Arctic than the rest of the world, and that has accelerated because sea ice is melting."
Models and available data on the ice melt show Arctic ice decline in the late-summer months is averaging about 13% per decade, Hoerling said, estimating more than 50% of that is human-caused.
"Probably not all we're seeing is human induced," he said, attributing much of the melting to "natural variability" which he says still "rules the roost."
What's more, Hoerling said, potential weather links to "Arctic amplification" in the middle latitudes including the Corn Belt is "weak."
Hoerling said Arctic temperatures have averaged 1 degree to 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer between 1980 and 2010. "The pace is much more dramatic at this time," he said.
Though climate models predicted the Corn Belt regions would become hotter and drier, Hoerling said that in the early 21st century, the climate became "more favorable for corn production in the middle latitudes, and it has become wetter.
"It looks like nothing like the story we hear," Hoerling said. "It has been a climate surprise."
NORTHEAST WINTER
Judah Cohen, principal scientist for the Climate Analysis Group in Newton, Massachusetts, said last year's record snowfall in the Northeast likely is caused by warming in the Arctic. Snow cover has been on the increase since 1988, he said, while Arctic ice has been decreasing since 1998.
"The snow cover is unexpected," Cohen said, based on climate models predicting changes in climate. "Last year was the highest snow cover on record for the Northern Hemisphere. It is especially surprising and not expected. When I was in graduate school, we thought snow cover would have been on a death spiral -- very unexpected."
What has occurred in the middle latitudes, including Corn Belt states, he said, is milder winters have become more common as the Arctic warms from October to March. "We tend to get more extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Cohen said.
Those events include more frequent heavy rain events in the Midwest.
Cohen said the unexpected effects of a changing climate mean scientists need to better hone scientific models and expand research.
"I think there are things we don't understand," he said. "We've reached a temperature where snow should be slowing and it's not."
This whole 'Climate Change' fable... concentrating on 'Human Mitigation efforts to reduce C02'... when Climate projections are clearly off side to real climate conditions... should have caused global re-examination of future climate trends. Instead... ignoring present weather trends... is the hall-mark of Science predictions for future Climate Change... like the more recent building of the AntArtic Ice Cap.