17.231MMT Canola 2015...

[TOM4CWB]

WOW. Up 5mmt Canola since July public production estimates were made.

"Bearish for canola [2015Aug 13.343 Oct 14.297 Dec 17.231mmt] and wheat [2015Aug 24.625 Oct 26.061 Dec 27.594mmt]. Traders focused on the canola number and it came in well above the highest of a large range of expectations. The report will likely weigh on canola prices today, if not for the next few days."

[TOM4CWB]

5 mmt x $460/t= $2.3B increase in Canola receipts in 2015... close to $1B increase in the Dec revisions alone. Implecations are good for Western Canadian economy!

[Hamloc]

I was hoping for 16 mmt or less. Will certainly hold the price of canola down. Apparently I need to drink some of your kool-aid Tom you always find positives where they don't exist :-).

[fjlip]

The low trade guess was 14.5, that would have helped the economy more with $12 canola!

[ajl]

Tom you forgot to subtract the amount that all the other tonnes are now worth less as well as bids for 2016 crop are going to be lower. So the effect of this surprise canola will not be all that big. I don't think there was that much canola but we will see.

[BTO_farmalll]

Great Day fer a Ritchie Bros Sale Aint It!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

BTO,

There is more money out there... than most expect!

Don't blame Alberta on the Canola..."canola production in Alberta fell 6.1% to 5.4 million tonnes. Harvested area was down 10.0%, while average yield rose from 38.0 bushels per acre in 2014 to 39.7 bushels per acre in 2015." Looks like StatsCan has a reasonable handle on the numbers...

[tweety]

fjlip with 20% less price on canola and 20% more production, isn't that the same result? You've neither lost nor gained.

[SASKFARMER3]

I think Tom it's lots of BTO s in Alberta not lots of cash out their!
Just saying!
Their 1.5mt out green and unsaleable plus bs factor so basically 16 mt

[Guest]

stas can bs report made your day tom ,im curious are you a buyer of canola , sure dont sound like a seller

[binthere]

tom in one of your recent posts. you said with an increasing, consistant supply canola would increase in price. now you are saying the opposite will happen. really.....

[Braveheart]

Stats Can numbers won't pressure canola prices down if bean oil strengthens.

[crusher]

I sold this morning on fear of a crash. It bounced back, great!! Just sell more.

[WPmarkets]

Bean oil rose about 4 percent today.

A huge increase in the estimate of Canada’s canola crop hardly pushed futures lower as a big rally in soy oil offset the downward price pressure.

Statistics Canada’s producer survey today pegged the canola crop at 17.23 million tonnes, up about three million from the September survey and up five percent from last year.

Most in the trade had expected a crop of around 15.5 million and no one in the pre report survey by Commodity News Service had a number higher than 16.2 million.

However, the market reaction was muted, with offsetting upward pressure from strong canola exports and domestic crush as well as rising soy oil prices.

January canola on Friday closed at $474.20 per tonne, down $1.10 and March closed at $483, unchanged.

For the week, January gained $11.10 or 2.4 percent and March rose $12.06 or 2.7 percent
And the rest of the story is here:
http://www.producer.com/daily/canola-futures-show-surprise-resilience-in-face-of-bigger-crop/

[farming101]

Rapid increase in open interest this week. Very positive.