Its Marketing and Could change Picture a bit.

[SASKFARMER3]

How dry is it getting in South America. Some video and pictures I have got this week show a Soy crop in some areas that is total Shit. Vegetation stage and leaf dropping taking place. Also when the guy walks through the crop its that crunchy sound.
So would rain help still these crops. Yes but if this continues till Jan I think it would be over.
What are others getting for info out of South America.

[SASKFARMER3]

Also just got the winter info from Drew. Alberta looks like it could be very dry in 2016 plus a portion of Saskatchewan. Lentils and Durum like it dry so might work out ok.
Peas and Canola not so much.

[farmaholic]

Any NDVI maps available for the peasants to look at or are those only available to International Grain Merchants? I'm wearing my conical hat with pride this morning.

[farming101]

Any news that would cause an uptick in grain markets would be welcome.

[errolanderson]

SF3 . . . big news out of Argentina is the rumour of their peso currency being devalued later this week. This is pressuring oilseeds today.

This move will make Argentina more export competitive.

[Hopalong]

To the extent we can trust any forecast, commodity futures contracts are the most believable.
Looking at Farms.com, canola has about best price gains in next year.
Think futures market prices are what we should pay most attention to.

[bucket]

And the canadian dollar shedding 20 cents to the usd doesn't make canola competitive?

Well then let's go to a 60 cent dollar to get exports.

[ajl]

The argentinian peso still has room to go lower? The worthless Canuckistanian peso hardly can do that any more. Bought $US at 0.78 with the though of lifting at 0.71. Now think it is headed lower yet maybe 0.60 as pointed out by other posters.

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . that's why you can get $10 canola now, not $9 canola.

[ajl]

With a 0.50 loonie we can get a record $15 for canola so dropping the currency as much as possible as quickly as possible is good policy. Good thing Trudope is captain of the ship so we will get there quickly.

[furrowtickler]

I think the veg oil tank will remain full regardless of S.A. weather. But being dry down there may keep the oil from over flowing.
What will be interesting if, lentils, yellow peas and yellow mustard , can hold the price levels till this time next year. I don't think overinflated prices have ever carried through into the next crop year but that would be a hugr help for those dry areas. Durum I think is in the same sinking - stinking - boat as HRSW.
If I had bigger balls I would have been 1/3 lentils, 1/3 canola and 1/3 malt barley last year.
Anyway, S/F you may be right, dryness may help going into next year but we wont know until end of April.

[sumdumguy]

Trying to depend on my memory, I think once in the eighties (1986) lentils hit 55 cents, then in 1987 we had a prolonged wet fall and they were at about 45 cents. But that was 1986 dollars, so they aren't that hot really.

[errolanderson]

Fallout in South American currency markets has made soybeans incredibly profitable to Brazilian growers.

The incentive to produce is immense in the southern hemisphere.

Janet . . . hike them rates this afternoon. Prove to the world that the U.S. economy is insulated against global fallout despite the intense weakness in American manufacturing and exports.

Sorry, couldn't help myself . . .

[vvalk]

errol you were saying the same thing a year ago. yet canola by spring was pushing $12.50

[Hopalong]

Would expect South America devalued currency effects to show up in higher costs of production.
Might be why soybean futures say two per cent US$ price increase per year, next two years or so.