Its Marketing and Could change Picture a bit.

[furrowtickler]

I think the veg oil tank will remain full regardless of S.A. weather. But being dry down there may keep the oil from over flowing.
What will be interesting if, lentils, yellow peas and yellow mustard , can hold the price levels till this time next year. I don't think overinflated prices have ever carried through into the next crop year but that would be a hugr help for those dry areas. Durum I think is in the same sinking - stinking - boat as HRSW.
If I had bigger balls I would have been 1/3 lentils, 1/3 canola and 1/3 malt barley last year.
Anyway, S/F you may be right, dryness may help going into next year but we wont know until end of April.

[sumdumguy]

Trying to depend on my memory, I think once in the eighties (1986) lentils hit 55 cents, then in 1987 we had a prolonged wet fall and they were at about 45 cents. But that was 1986 dollars, so they aren't that hot really.

[errolanderson]

Fallout in South American currency markets has made soybeans incredibly profitable to Brazilian growers.

The incentive to produce is immense in the southern hemisphere.

Janet . . . hike them rates this afternoon. Prove to the world that the U.S. economy is insulated against global fallout despite the intense weakness in American manufacturing and exports.

Sorry, couldn't help myself . . .

[vvalk]

errol you were saying the same thing a year ago. yet canola by spring was pushing $12.50

[Hopalong]

Would expect South America devalued currency effects to show up in higher costs of production.
Might be why soybean futures say two per cent US$ price increase per year, next two years or so.

[Hopalong]

Too many moving parts and unpredictables to make decisions based on one or two of them.
Give credit to graincos that offer deferred delivery contracts for November canola.
Based on active Canadian $ futures market.

[farmaholic]

Hoppy...wouldn't they hedge both the grain and currency? I highly doubt they would leave themselves exposed.

[Hopalong]

Canola futures traded in Canadian dollars so no need to hedge currency.
Commodities traded in other currencies need currency hedge as well, one reason not to offer contracts too far in future.