El Nino... t h e n... La Nina...2 !!!?

[TOM4CWB]

PRAIRIE MARKET PROBE
Fri Dec 18, 2015 07:27 AM CST

OUTLOOK STILL RISKY FOR DRY PRAIRIE AREAS
The long-term weather outlook remains risky for parts of Western Canada, particularly the driest areas in Alberta, says a story from DePutter
Publishing.
In the latest edition of the Weather Prognosticator, World Weather Inc. suggests much will depend on whether the El Nino event currently in place
stubbornly refuses to abate into the summer. If that indeed is the case, it could leave Alberta in a "tenuous position of possibly dealing with more
drought, and it could become more significant."
According to World Weather, there is little doubt El Nino - which typically results in mild and relatively dry Prairie winters - will prevail into early
spring.
Although the current situation is by no means a crisis, World Weather said the fact the El Nino event is projected to hang on at least into May raises the
possibility that crops seeded in the spring will have little time for growth and development before the truly hotter, drier summer days arrive in June and July.
"As of today, forecasters expect El Nino to go away during the growing season next year and that should bring back rainfall and help ease dryness and support crops. At this point in time, however, the Canada weather signal for the summer
is weak enough that we cannot say emphatically there will be no drought in 2016.
The situation needs to be closely monitored."
The worst of the dry areas in Alberta are limited to the Peace River country and in areas near, west and north from the Edmonton region. Another area of
concern remains in far southern Alberta mostly from Medicine Hat area into the
Lethbridge/Pincher Creek areas.
In contrast, some parts of the Prairies remain too wet, including northeastern Saskatchewan.

[furrowtickler]

Grow lentils Tom , maybe some canary seed - good drought tolerance and make some money

[farmaholic]

I thought canary hated dry conditions...shallow root system.

Grow Lentils and Durum Tom.

[TOM4CWB]

Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Fri Dec 18, 2015 07:44 AM CST
OMAHA (DTN) -- El Nino remains intact and is the dominant weather forecast feature through spring 2016, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters. Its presence suggests an early start to the spring field work season in the Corn Belt.


Very warm Pacific Ocean temperatures indicate a still-robust El Nino, with influence continuing through spring. (NOAA graphic)
El Nino is the term used to describe a large-scale warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, along with an atmospheric circulation that results in sustained west-to-east low-latitude jet stream winds. The current El Nino "is among the three strongest" over the past 60 years, Michigan state climatologist Jeff Andresen said. "The current event is near its peak, with a gradual weakening to neutral by summer, and some forecasts call for a cool Pacific (La Nina) by next winter," Andresen said.

Following a fall season that brought abnormally mild temperatures and mostly above-normal precipitation to the central U.S. region, Andresen outlined a beneficial spring forecast for agriculture. The framework includes a likely continuation of above-normal temperatures through the winter and into the spring. Coinciding with the mild temperatures, central region forecasts also point to a drier-than-normal trend through much of the rest of the winter and into spring.

Collectively, the forecasts suggest an earlier-than-normal start to the growing season. "I've already had some growers asking about the potential for switching corn hybrids to longer-season maturities," Andresen said.

The El Nino-influenced forecast also points to a reduced threat of cold-weather injury to overwintering crops in 2016. "This would be a big benefit to fruits and g****s after the last two very cold winters," Andresen said.

If that drier trend does indeed develop in the spring, recent heavy rain in the Midwest will be looked at as a beneficial event for soil moisture, in the opinion of DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino.

"I know that there has been some flooding and standing water now, but with the general trend of El Nino being a dry weather-producer in spring, I'd think producers would look at the moisture from these rains as money in the bank," Palmerino said.

Meanwhile, recent heavy rain and snow has brought improvement in drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest, with a full two-category change from "exceptional" to "severe" in the state of Washington. CPC forecaster Stephen Baxter anticipates that similar benefit will develop this winter in California as well. Heaviest amounts of El Nino-related precipitation usually occur in California after the first of the year.

"I do think it's fair to say that parts of that region with D4 (exceptional drought) could see two-category improvement," Baxter said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

[fjlip]

Sounds like 2015 and there was NO El Nino, late start to rains?
When the hell is it going to be DRY where needed and rain where dry?....