Nothing \"Freakish\" About Recent Storms???

[TOM4CWB]

I wonder why Bryce's shorts are in a knot???

Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Monday 12/28/15

"Nothing "Freakish" About Recent Storms

I am not a wordsmith. I have colleagues and acquaintances whose writing skills leave me in the dust. But I do know when I think words are being misused--and I saw one in a weather feature headline from Associated Press early this week, in the wake of the very storm weekend after Christmas.

Here is the headline from an Associated Press article that rattled my cage: "Freakish Weather Kills at Least 43 Across U.S."

It was the term "freakish" that caught my attention. Why? Because the term "freakish", as described by the Dr. Google dictionary, means "bizarre or grotesque; abnormal"--or "capricious or whimsical; unpredictable".

Such a term lit my fuse. I sent a note to DTN Ag News with the following comment: "Freakish my foot. Extreme--yes. But freakish? With the volatile atmosphere? Come on."

Now, I know how headlines work. The point is to get attention. But still, to say that last weekend's spate of severe storms, heavy rain, and heavy snow, was "abnormal" or "unpredictable" does not take into account the atmospheric conditions that we are in these days. Here's what I mean:

#1--As you all know by following DTN, we have the most intense El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event that has occurred since 1997. An El Nino of this magnitude brings a whole lot of extra mega-joules of energy to the atmosphere, and most of the time reaches its peak during the late December-early January time frame--which is of course, where we are right now. El Nino-infused storm systems many times exhibit a robust nature which is profound--but is not abnormal for El Nino. So that's point #1.

But there's a second point--and point #2 is a long-term overriding feature which continues to display its influence--and that is, the impact of global warming-related climate change in setting the atmosphere up for "turbo-charged" storm systems. Planet Earth is on track to have its warmest year in recorded history in 2015--and, with the oceans sharing in that warmth, the El Nino effect started with a higher threshold of ocean temperatures, which then adds even more energy to the atmosphere--and thus, the setting for stronger storms, fatalities and tremendous damage.

But, were these happenings "freakish"? Well, not when you take in the totality of what happened in 2015. Remember the outrageous snows in late winter from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast? Remember the monster rains in Texas (again) in May? Remember the heavy rains in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana during May and June--record setting? How about this one--ELEVEN rain gauges in the Oklahoma Mesonet have logged 80--EIGHTY--inches of rain in 2015. And now, the outrageous rain and snow in the Northwest earlier in December, followed by this late-December event in the central part of the country. And I haven't even touched on some monster events internationally.

"Freakish"? Not in the context of what the atmosphere has displayed over the past ten years or so. "Volatile"--absolutely. "Severe"--certainly. But, to use a term that conjures up the image of folks not knowing what's happening or why--no, there is plenty of knowledge as to what's happening.

And, as much as I try to stay away from clichés, there is one that applies to what we witnessed the weekend after Christmas: "new normal". We will likely see more.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(AG/CZ)

© Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved."

What do you think???

[bucket]

I wish I could write like that.

Makes sense ... but then a balanced view always makes sense.

[tweety]

Like when it comes to railroads?

[ajl]

Central AB has logged one of the nicest falls and early winters that I can remember. Conditions are seasonal now but with not much wind it is still quite nice outside.

[TOM4CWB]

From RRFN;

"Another 1983 —
World Weather, Inc. senior ag meteorologist Drew Lerner thinks next summer could be reminiscent of 1983. If La Nina is slow to evolve, as Lerner believes, the odds will be high of a cool and wet spring in key U.S. crop areas.
The drier and warmer tendencies will then likely come along a little later in the year. The combination of late winter and spring wetness and summer dryness may be similar to 1983.
Lerner says late fall and early winter weather is evolving in a mostly typical El Nino manner this year.
Much of the central Midwest and Delta are saturated and Lerner thinks El Nino will remain strong enough and long enough into the spring to maintain very wet field conditions."

It will be interesting to hear what Drew has to say at Farmtech next month! If you haven't booked for Farmtech... do it soon... it will be sold out!

[blackpowder]

Sorry Tom, dont like Farmtech anymore.
What was 83s weather?

[cottonpicken]

Word nazi as bad as grammar nazis. Sounds like the North Atlantic and North Pole are about to light up in what I would call freakish

[TOM4CWB]

BP

https://weatherspark.com/history/28417/1983/Edmonton-Alberta-Canada

Nothing wildly out of the norm... wet 2nd half of June, big rain middle of July, wet Sept.

[mustardman]

1983 beautiful crop coming - till Tornado and hail hit

[TOM4CWB]

NEWS
Rare Winter Floods on Mississippi
Tue Dec 29, 2015 07:14 AM CST
ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Warm and wet weather over the last several weeks followed by storms that brought a deluge of rain in recent days have produced a severe threat of flooding along the Mississippi River, where water could reach record high levels soon in some places. The winter flooding is unusual and could portend even worse problems in the spring depending on weather the rest of the season. Here's a look at what is prompting the concern:

RECORD CRESTS

The sudden flooding along the Mississippi River is both rare and historic.

At a time of the year when both precipitation and the river level typically are well below normal, there could be record crests in some places along the Mississippi.

The river already was high due to an unseasonably warm, wet late fall and early winter. Torrential rains --- 6 to 10 inches in parts of eastern Missouri and western Illinois --- since Saturday pushed it to the unprecedented levels.

The Mississippi is expected to reach 49.9 feet by Friday at Chester, Illinois, south of St. Louis. That would top by two-tenths of a foot the all-time high reached on Aug. 7, 1993. It also is expected to match the highest level ever on Saturday at Cape Girardeau in southeast Missouri. St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay declared a flood emergency. Major flooding is predicted at several other points from just north of St. Louis through the South.

Flood plain buyouts along the Mississippi in recent years may mitigate the damage, but some homes are endangered. The mayor of West Alton, Missouri, 20 miles north of St. Louis, ordered the 520 residents to evacuate because the flood levee isn't high enough for the expected crest.

___

WHY SO HIGH?

Much of nation has enjoyed an unusually warm late fall and early winter, but it has come with a price.

"It has been a lot warmer than normal, and the warmer air can hold more moisture in the atmosphere," said Scott Watson, a hydrologist for the National Weather Service office near Kansas City, Missouri.

The result has been higher than normal rainfall, causing the Mississippi to be unusually high. St. Louis has received nearly 10 inches of rain in December, according to the National Weather Service --- four times the normal amount. Around 7 inches of rain have fallen since Saturday.

The warm spell seems to be coming to an end. Highs along the river basin in Missouri and Illinois are expected to be in the 40s for most of this week, with overnight lows in the 20s. But Watson said that's probably not cold enough to cause ice to form on the fast-moving river.

___

WAITING DOWNRIVER

National Weather Service hydrologist Marty Pope said that flood crests on the Lower Mississippi below the mouth of the Arkansas River won't set overall records, but will probably be the highest ever recorded in winter.

"We're looking at water stretching from levee to levee," Pope told reporters Monday in Pearl, Mississippi.

That means that inhabited areas on the river side of levees, as well as ports and casinos, could be affected.

The river is predicted to crest in Memphis on Jan. 9, with the peak water traveling downstream to Natchez, Mississippi, by Jan. 18.

"It's still raining in parts of the basin," Pope said. There could be a lot of change between now and then."

___

LEVEE SLIDE

Heavy rainfall has already inundated a levee in northeast Louisiana. Part of the Mississippi River levee near Alsatia, in East Carroll Parish, collapsed. Greg Raimondo, a spokesman for the Vicksburg District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said the district plans to activate its flood-fighting plan on Friday, increasing patrols along levees, looking for sand boils, seepage and landslides.

Raimondo said Corps officials are concerned that a levee collapsed before the river really began rising.

___

HOW RARE?

While extensive flooding this time of year is unusual, it's not unheard of, according to Bob Holmes, a Rolla, Missouri-based national flood hazard coordinator for the U.S. Geological Survey.

He points to January and February of 1937, when Ohio River flooding was blamed for hundreds of deaths and, when adjusted to today's dollars, billions in damage from Pittsburgh to southern Illinois' tip near Cairo.

Floodwaters in Illinois reached nearly 30 miles inland and nearly destroyed the town of Harrisburg. In southeastern Illinois' Shawneetown, residents were forced to flee before the Ohio wiped out the town, reaching a crest more than 32 feet above flood stage --- still a record there. The town ultimately was rebuilt on higher ground, three miles from the river.

The 1937 crest at Cairo still is second only to one reached there in May 2011.

___

FARMING IMPLICATIONS

Extensive wintertime rains pose a possible agricultural risk, saturating soil with moisture that could become trapped when the season's deep freeze finally sets in. Come spring, when the ground thaws, that moisture --- and the likelihood of spring rains --- could leave farm fields water-logged, slowing plantings of corn and soybeans and perhaps crimping yields.

Under that scenario, Holmes said, "it will be mushy" for farmers and their heavy machinery, prone to getting mired in the mud.

Seeds planted in wet soil don't develop deep roots and they run the risk of rotting if they're subjected to prolonged wet soil.

But Holmes cautions that it's still early, with winter still yet to play out.

"It will all depend on what the weather will do in February and March," he said. "It's so far out, we're all talking about the possibilities."

(KA

[wheatsnowcanola]

1983 was a gross disaster. Extremely high rainfall in june and july. Poorest crop other than the drought of 2002. East central ab.

[LEP]

February of 1983 I was in New Zealand. It was a cooler than usual summer there. I phoned home one day and it was warmer in Canada than it was there.

Also a year on many fires in Australia.

Seems to me our harvest was just average nothing remarkable, good or bad.

[Hopalong]

Have had three or four weeks of continuous hoar frost, don't think it means anything but do not remember it lasting this steadily.