Australian Crop

[malleefarmer]

Been announced this morning will be cut by two million tonnes.

The market will not even blink.

Australia a big exporter but still still just another fish in a big pond.

Winter kill sometime between now and april might provided a opportunity.

Cheers all hope 2016 delivers what you all hope for.

[farming101]

Sorry for the downgrade. It's a start.

[malleefarmer]

Basically what we all knew anyway govt agencies never appear to work in anything that resembles real time, think it was a fair assumption the aussie crop was over estimated back in late sept early oct.

Funny thing though and you guys may disagree because your closer to the action, but usda reports and guesstimates at years end seemingly are never that far out possibly more accurate than given credit or am I completely out to lunch on this one?

[TOM4CWB]

Here is an article on USDA by DTN:

Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst
Thursday 11/12/15
History of [USDA] January Yield Revisions
Based on a very stable late season crop conditions at a time of year when they usually decline, an extended growing season in the Midwest with a very late first fall freeze allowing even row crops in the Upper Midwest to reach full maturity and stellar reports from the field the USDA did increase both the 2015 U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates in the November crop production report.


What was surprising was the magnitude of the increase with the corn yield estimate hiked by 1.3 bushels per acre (bpa) to 169.3 bpa, the second highest ever next to last year's 171.0 and above the average trade guess of 168.2.

For soybeans a new all-time high yield of 48.3 bpa was established topping the year ago record of 47.5 bpa. This month's estimate was a sharp 1.1 bpa above the USDA's October projection and higher than the average trade guess of 47.5.

Now the question turns to the final crop production report to be issued January 12, 2016. Sentiment seems to be that with the USDA increasing both this year's corn and soybean yield projections from the September into the October report and then also the October into the November report that this pattern should continue with even higher projections early next year.

As a check we looked at those years since 1974 where that happened with the results reported in the accompanying graphic.

Since 1974 there have been 20 occurrences when the USDA hiked the U.S. corn yield from the Sep to Oct report and then the Oct to Nov report and half the time yields fell in the Jan report and half the time they rose with the average being a 0.2 bpa increase in yields.

Note the last time this happened in corn prior to this year was in 2005. For soybeans since 1974 there have been 18 occurrences when the USDA hiked the U.S. soybean yield from the Sep to Oct report and then the Oct to Nov report and 11 times yields increased in the Jan report, six times they declined and twice they were unchanged with the average being also a 0.2 bpa increase.

(KA)

Posted by Joel Karlin at 10:06 AM CST 11/12/15

[farming101]

Concerning canola the USDA kinda went with Stats Can numbers which boosted Canadian production a bunch. Earlier Stats Can boosted carryover a bunch more too.
There are some that are asking where it all is. Really how can anyone ever know exact numbers?

[sawfly]

just seems to me a lot of canola
has already been shipped.
train after train

low $ , its a bargain
and as bare and warm as it is here.
in a winter drought.
with only a 12- 16 inches of wet soil
and powder below.
on how big an area ? 1/3 half the prairies and El Nino ?

how much hot dry weather this spring
would it take to add 5 $ to the price of canola.
if India can afford to pay 12.50 for peas.
what would a 1/2 size canola crop do.
20$
sure as hell not going to lock any in.

[farmaholic]

You must have resolved to be more optimistic regarding canola prices this year... I can't see either prediction being a possibility, but better to hope than agonize.

[Rareearth]

Misery likes company

[ajl]

Nobody really has a clue. They are just WAGs (wild a** guesses) The trade will trade it until new info is available to insiders. I am not worried about grocery shelves being empty though although farmers like to fantasize about that situation. Actually Canuckistan did run out of butter prior to Christmas as the central dairy planners had underestimated consumers shifting to butter and away from margarine in Christmas baking so there was reports of supplies not being available from time to time but generally shelves were full. Less beef on it these days than used to be but as standards of living drop for the average person there is less demand. Substituted with pork, chicken and pulses. The southern plains winter storm last week probably relieved surplus milk from the US market and likely did support beef prices here last week because a lot of cattle were killed.