Beef Markets

[Hopalong]

Thread on beef production forum gives outlook.
My view, after United States protectionism during past few years, trend to grain production ahead of cattle is likely to continue.
If beef prices are high enough to encourage more production, consumers are likely to back off demand.
A slower economy and carbon taxes will mean less money in consumer pockets.
In our local area last ten years has seen significant shift of land from cattle to grain and expect that to continue.
Wonder what others see and expect?

[15444]

Locally, beef cow herds are holding steady. But lots of older guys that will be ready to go in the next 5 years. Maybe not 1/2, but probably 1/4 of all producers locally. Majority of young guys are balls deep in debt, particularly the Mennonites and Swiss. Doubt they would weather a crash like '03, and not sure how many 'normal' guys would still want to be in it.

Provincially, a lot depends on how much money the Liberals throw at Ontario Cattlemen's Association to waste on 'sector expansion' in the North and South. The biggest push lately is for Southern guys to get subsidized to put perimeter fencing in. Ridiculous.

[farmaholic]

Oh that is ironic. In the west there was this "farm program" to encourage seeding land to grass, fencing and crossfencing, dugout building, facility building. All in the name of building the herd....along comes BSE and they were left standing out with their bare asses in the cold north wind. ****ing government encouraging beef production then turn their backs on them. Thats government for you.

Anyone who stuck it out through BSE gets my utmost respect. Talk about a determined group of people. If only the rest of society had that fortitude.

[ajl]

I agree. Lower living standard will continue to shrink demand for beef. I can see the day when it will only be consumed in restaurants as a luxury item. Substitute with chicken, pork and pulses will continue. This will allow many more people to be fed off the same acreage. Land prices will eventually fall as it succumbs to deflation allowing beef production cost to decrease ten years from now. So the trend to a smaller cow herd with land shifting to grain will continue.

[Tucker]

I survived with my beef herd through the BSE years only by getting into the export alfalfa business. Those were some of the best and worst times on this farm. Then along comes TB testing and ruined any hope of profit in cattle. Sold every tail on the farm after that. Couldn't be happier. Went on our first Mexican winter vacation that year. Buying a quarter or two every year since and have never seen so much profit in farming with straight grain now. Anyone still hanging on to a cow tail needs an education in math. Land is going to be used for it's highest purpose. I'm glad guys with cattle land might see some money now.

[grassfarmer]

Ajl that's not the reality. Consumption stayed up amazingly considering beef prices - that helped sustain the crazy high prices of cattle over the last 18 months.
I don't think land prices will fall, even if it is considered cow land only. Not going to happen. Too many other factors driving it higher.

[farmaholic]

For the sake of meat eaters....thank God for chicken and pork.

[newguy]

Heard about a year ago that beef hit all time highs for 6 months straight at market.But demand at restaruants hit all time high for 18 months in a row.Yes that was a year ago but I still see line ups during the week at steak houses.Can not see supply of beef in Canada jumping.Think prices may drop a bit but only down to a new normal.

[riders2010]

food in Canada is still very low compared to the cost of everything else. its all realative.

[riders2010]

food in Canada is still very low compared to the cost of everything else. its all realative.

[Oliver88]

Think I read the stat that the average Canadian spends 9% of their income on food.