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This little CDN$ went to town...

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    This little CDN$ went to town...

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Strong Demand Seen Through Pivotal 1.4000
    DailyFX By Tyler Yell, CMT
    12 hours ago
    
    DailyFX.com -

    Interested In Learning the Traits of FXCM’s Successful Traders? If So, Click Here

    Talking Points:

    -USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Buy the Dip Above 1.3812

    -USD/CAD continues to hold above upper bound of long-term bull channel

    -1.3811 January 4th Low to Act as Swing Support

    USDCAD is a wonder to behold. Since May of 2015, there has been a few retracement into the key Fibonacci zone of 38.2-61.8% in June & October of the prior impulse, but aside from those short-term counter-trend moves, USDCAD seems to be taking the elevator higher, forget the stairs. Looking across the board, it seems like USDCAD does not intend to slow down whether looking at momentum via RSI, Crowd Sentiment Continues to Favor USD/CAD Gains, or trend following indicators like moving averages. On the chart below, you will also notice a line that is drawn from a bullish channel of the 2007-2011 low to the 2009 high on the weekly chart. The hold above that line is additionally bullish.

    Given the strength of the current move, which has pushed USDCAD to the highest level since 2003 at 1.4019, it is more important to discuss support than resistance. By looking at the support levels, we can take ourselves out of the 81% of retail traders fighting this trend (they likely haven’t been reading this articles anyway), and focus on the 19% who are following this move higher along with other USD upside moves like USDSEK higher & NZDUSD lower. For now, the most important support is the January/ YTD low of 1.3811 that was also the December 28 low. Because USDCAD has been in a 1.38/1.40 range for three weeks, we can look to that sideways move as a correction suggesting the trend is resuming impulsively higher again. The trend resumption was evidenced by the very aggressive move above 1.4000 that touched 1.4019 on the highest hourly interbank volume since the days following FOMC’s rate hike.

    While the trend is strong and worth following above 1.3811, there are specific targets to the upside starting with 1.4100. This target aligns with the Weekly R1 Pivot and is 61.8% of the initial move off the mid-May low projected higher from 1.3811. Above 1.4100, traders can look to 1.4275/43, which is the top of the channel drawn from the late August high and is 100% of the initial move off the mid-May low projected higher from 1.3811. Another sign of the strength of the move is that RSI (14) broke above 70 in a similar fashion to USD-CAD in July as it was in the midst of overtaking 1.3000 from 1.1900 a few months ago. If nothing else, RSI helps us to see that the trend is not worth fighting; only following for now.USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Strong Demand Seen Through Pivotal 1.4000
    DailyFX By Tyler Yell, CMT
    12 hours ago
    
    DailyFX.com -

    Interested In Learning the Traits of FXCM’s Successful Traders? If So, Click Here

    Talking Points:

    -USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Buy the Dip Above 1.3812

    -USD/CAD continues to hold above upper bound of long-term bull channel

    -1.3811 January 4th Low to Act as Swing Support

    USDCAD is a wonder to behold. Since May of 2015, there has been a few retracement into the key Fibonacci zone of 38.2-61.8% in June & October of the prior impulse, but aside from those short-term counter-trend moves, USDCAD seems to be taking the elevator higher, forget the stairs. Looking across the board, it seems like USDCAD does not intend to slow down whether looking at momentum via RSI, Crowd Sentiment Continues to Favor USD/CAD Gains, or trend following indicators like moving averages. On the chart below, you will also notice a line that is drawn from a bullish channel of the 2007-2011 low to the 2009 high on the weekly chart. The hold above that line is additionally bullish.

    Given the strength of the current move, which has pushed USDCAD to the highest level since 2003 at 1.4019, it is more important to discuss support than resistance. By looking at the support levels, we can take ourselves out of the 81% of retail traders fighting this trend (they likely haven’t been reading this articles anyway), and focus on the 19% who are following this move higher along with other USD upside moves like USDSEK higher & NZDUSD lower. For now, the most important support is the January/ YTD low of 1.3811 that was also the December 28 low. Because USDCAD has been in a 1.38/1.40 range for three weeks, we can look to that sideways move as a correction suggesting the trend is resuming impulsively higher again. The trend resumption was evidenced by the very aggressive move above 1.4000 that touched 1.4019 on the highest hourly interbank volume since the days following FOMC’s rate hike.

    While the trend is strong and worth following above 1.3811, there are specific targets to the upside starting with 1.4100. This target aligns with the Weekly R1 Pivot and is 61.8% of the initial move off the mid-May low projected higher from 1.3811. Above 1.4100, traders can look to 1.4275/43, which is the top of the channel drawn from the late August high and is 100% of the initial move off the mid-May low projected higher from 1.3811. Another sign of the strength of the move is that RSI (14) broke above 70 in a similar fashion to USD-CAD in July as it was in the midst of overtaking 1.3000 from 1.1900 a few months ago. If nothing else, RSI helps us to see that the trend is not worth fighting; only following for now."

    #2
    Buying more CDN$ Puts... is REALLY tempting!

    Comment


      #3
      THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
      Saudis slash oil prices for Europe, perhaps to undercut Iran
      By Benoît Faucon
      Published: Jan 5, 2016 10:33 p.m. ET
      LONDON — Saudi Arabia on Tuesday sharply cut the prices it charges for crude oil in Europe, a move that could undercut Iran as sectarian tensions escalate between the rival Middle Eastern nations.

      The Saudi move appears to pave the way for a competition over European oil markets later this year when Iran is expected to increase its exports after the expected end of western sanctions over its nuclear program.


      Italy and Spain relied on Iran for 13% and 16% of their oil imports before the European Union banned such purchases under sanctions related to its nuclear program in 2012. Although the country was replaced in the market by Saudi Arabia and other countries such as Russia, Tehran is counting on rekindling those ties when it resumes exports.


      The price cut comes after a diplomatic chasm opened this week between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and by extension, the Sunni and Shiite Muslim worlds. Riyadh and a number of Sunni Muslim capitals have severed or downgraded diplomatic ties with Iran after the Saudi embassy was set on fire in Tehran following the execution in Saudi Arabia of Shiite cleric Nemer al-Nemer.

      Read: Traders worry Saudi-Iranian rift may result in fresh flood of oil

      Iranian oil professionals interpreted the move as a way to compete with Iran returning to the oil markets. The European Union is set to lift an embargo on Tehran as soon as next month.

      “The Saudis are preparing for Iran’s return,” said Mohamed Sadegh Memarian, who recently retired as the head of petroleum market analysis at Iran’s oil ministry.

      The Saudi price cut ran against European market trends. Russia’s Urals prices have increased lately, while oil futures suggest some traders expect a rebound in Europe’s main benchmark, the Brent, this year, said Ehsan Ul-Haq, a senior analyst at U.K. consultancy KBC Advanced Technologies.

      An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

      Write to Benoît Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com

      Comment


        #4
        DTN market close

        <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/player.js?transition=selector&video_pcode=w4bGI6bd _PWJOcG6qp8u9w-eCIZi&embedCode=o3bXVpOlSxGJShugsVW05o6EV8XtWw4V&v iew=channel&width=1004&browserPlacement=right403px &height=540&deepLinkEmbedCode=o3bXVpOlSxGJShugsVW0 5o6EV8XtWw4V%2Cs2bXVpOtSTYO1aCsP6C9z93edpwKpIZh%2C 9iOW8wMDE6M0XS3aXiTS25cSbLJ6KAnP"></script>

        Comment


          #5
          CDN$

          Day's Range: 0.7088 - 0.7155

          Comment


            #6
            Below 71 cents for first time since 2003.

            Next level to fall below is 70!

            Comment


              #7
              And it surely will.

              And when oil gets to even substantially above lifting costs the real "big trigger" kicks in. Just ask North Dakota tax collectors what impact that has.

              But here in Sask; watch how the 3 year moving average of government calculated "net" per "barrel" revenue divided by $55,500 or so for deemed environmental well bore reclamation and you will understand how the LLR will impact even the majors who certainly never expected the necessity of upfront prepayment to the government on every well (suspended or not) that instantly comes due under those circumstances.

              That when the shit will really hit fan.

              Comment


                #8
                nymex crude feb= $32.62;

                cdn$70.74 tonight...

                Comment


                  #9
                  vw lost close to $4B market cap yesterday...

                  Mkt cap
                  $60.24B

                  May 2015... was 126B$

                  Comment


                    #10
                    And lest anyone figure that all is gloom and doom.....this is a period of opportunity for a "small" segment of society to continue to prepare for their own bright future.

                    It being a case of not being amongst the first 20% to 50% suffering unrepairable setbacks.

                    This economic situation will separate those who have actually been dependent and living off the system; rather that being net contributors to the system.

                    Nonetheless; for absolutely everyone....there remain wild cards such as terrorists and thieves and rogue countries that will make us all wonder what the world has come too.

                    Whether Canada becomes impoverished ; and the currency so poorly valued will determine our relative standard of living; and if we deliberately ruin the worth of our coal; and our oil and our uranium then history will show the downfall of economic stability of this country will be in large part the result of our own internal actions.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      N Korea Said they blew off a H Bomb... which did spook some in China... Saudi/Iran spat... has them wondering what is next. Saudi's mad at US and EU for teaming up with Iran, so Iran could get the Bomb... and pump oil... and push the Saudis into the sea...

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Visitors from Dubai today. Interesting times in a hungry world.

                        Comment

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