Its a whole new World!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well as the sun rises this morning in Canada, yes I'm home, 2016 is here and how do we see the year shaping up.
I for one like the dry winter so far. Maybe today will give a snow storm to our area but for the most part driving home it was sure nice to see grass sticking out of the front lawn.
N Korea has a Hydrogen Bomb or they now how to do the first detonation.
RBC is increasing mortgage rates this morning. Yea its starting.
Grain prices are tanking, its starting.
The Canadian dollar is in a free fall.
Trudeau is still running Canada.
And rain makes grain in South America.
This year is shaping up to be one F$%K of a year.
Tom still finds goodness out their in every single fricking thing.
But here is what I see happening in 2016.
Last time lentil prices were this high we witnessed a new era in lentil business. Mom and Pop processors went bye bye. So maybe that act of god clause is for their protection not yours.
Western Canada will be pulse heaven from Calgary to Winterpeg.
But dryness in some areas might have other issues.
Weather seems to be changing time will tell.
Canadian dollar will hit .67 and oil will get to $28 then start to rise.
Prices for inputs in Canadian farms will have to go up because of our dollar.
Equipment companies will have new ways to get you in to buy. Simply used will be in short supply so if you need it will have to be new.
Labour might be available this spring as oil guys will be home and looking for Cash.
Home prices in most of Canada will drop except Vancouver and Toronto. Not sure what's going on but something smells. Regina Calgary Saskatoon Edmonton all over built.
So yea we live in a great country. But basically I think it is a shift to neutral and coast through this year.
What do others think will happen.

[TOM4CWB]

NEWS
NKorea Claims it Tested H-Bomb
Wed Jan 6, 2016 06:13 AM CST
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- Soon after the ground shook around its nuclear testing facility, North Korea trumpeted its first hydrogen bomb test — a powerful, self-proclaimed "H-bomb of justice" that would mark a major and unanticipated advance for its still-limited nuclear arsenal.

Pyongyang's announcement Wednesday was met with widespread skepticism, but whatever the North detonated in its fourth nuclear test, another round of tough international sanctions looms for the defiant, impoverished country.

The test likely pushed Pyongyang's scientists and engineers closer to their goal of building a warhead small enough to place on a missile that can reach the U.S. mainland. But South Korea's spy agency thought the estimated explosive yield from the explosion was much smaller than what even a failed H-bomb detonation would produce.

The test was met with a burst of jubilation and pride in Pyongyang. A North Korean television anchor, reading a typically propaganda-heavy statement, said a test of a "miniaturized" hydrogen bomb had been a "perfect success" that elevated the country's "nuclear might to the next level."

A large crowd celebrated in front of Pyongyang's main train station as the announcement was read on a big video screen, with people taking videos or photos of the screen on their mobile phones and applauding and cheering.

In Seoul and elsewhere there was high-level worry. South Korean President Park Geun-hye ordered her military to bolster its combined defense posture with U.S. forces and called the test a "grave provocation" and "an act that threatens our lives and future." Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, "We absolutely cannot allow this."

Washington and nuclear experts have been skeptical about past North Korean claims about H-bombs, which are much more powerful and much more difficult to make, than atomic bombs. A confirmed test would further worsen already abysmal relations between Pyongyang and its neighbors and lead to a strong push for tougher sanctions on North Korea at the United Nations. The Security Council quickly announced an emergency meeting.

A successful H-bomb test would be a big advance. Fusion is the main principle behind the hydrogen bomb, which can be hundreds of times more powerful than atomic bombs that use fission. In a hydrogen bomb, radiation from a nuclear fission explosion sets off a fusion reaction responsible for a powerful blast and radioactivity.

A South Korean lawmaker said the country's spy agency told him in a private briefing that Pyongyang may not have conducted an H-bomb test given the relatively small size of the seismic wave reported.

An estimated explosive yield of 6.0 kilotons and a quake with a magnitude of 4.8 (the U.S. reported 5.1) were detected, lawmaker Lee Cheol Woo said the National Intelligence Service told him. That's smaller than the estimated explosive yield of 7.9 kilotons and a quake with a magnitude of 4.9 that were reported after the 2013 nuclear test, he said, and only a fraction of the hundreds of kilotons that a successful H-bomb test's explosion would usually yield. Even a failed H-bomb detonation typically yields tens of kilotons, the NIS told Lee, who sits on the parliament's intelligence committee.

A miniaturized H-bomb can trigger a weak quake, but only the U.S. and Russia have such H-bombs, Lee cited the NIS as saying.

While also noting the quake was likely too small for an H-bomb test, Jaiki Lee, a professor of nuclear engineering at Seoul's Hanyang University, said the North could have experimented with a "boosted" hybrid bomb that uses some nuclear fusion fuel along with more conventional uranium or plutonium fuel.

After North Korean leader Kim Jong Un bragged of H-bomb capabilities in December, nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis also questioned Pyongyang's ability to build such a bomb.

But, he wrote on the North Korea-focused 38 North website, "The North has now had a nuclear weapons program for more than 20 years. This program has yielded three nuclear tests. North Korean nuclear scientists have access to their counterparts in Pakistan, possibly Iran and maybe a few other places. We should not expect that they will test the same fission device over and over again."

In Pyongyang the announcement was greeted with an expected rush of nationalistic pride, and some bewilderment.

Kim Sok Chol, 32, told The Associated Press that he doesn't know much about H-bombs, but added that "Since we have it the U.S. will not attack us."

University student Ri Sol Yong, 22, said, "If we didn't have powerful nuclear weapons, we would already have been turned into the slaves of the U.S."

It could take weeks before the true nature of the test is confirmed by outside experts — if they are able to do so at all. North Korea goes to great lengths to conceal its tests by conducting them underground and tightly sealing off tunnels or any other vents though which radioactive residue and blast-related noble gases could escape into the atmosphere.

U.S. Air Force aircraft designed to detect the evidence of a nuclear test could be deployed from a U.S. base on the Japanese island of Okinawa. Japanese media said Tokyo has also mobilized its own reconnaissance aircraft for sorties over the Sea of Japan to try to collect atmospheric data.

The test was unexpected in part because North Korea's previous nuclear test was in early 2013 and Kim Jong Un did not mention nuclear weapons in his annual New Year's speech. Some outside analysts speculated Kim was worried about deteriorating ties with China, the North's last major ally, which has shown greater frustration at provocations and a possible willingness to allow stronger U.N. sanctions.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters that Beijing "firmly opposes" Pyongyang's purported test and is monitoring the environment on its border with North Korea near the test site.

Just how big a threat North Korea's nuclear program poses is a mystery. North Korea is thought to have a handful of rudimentary nuclear bombs and has spent decades trying to perfect a multistage, long-range missile to eventually carry smaller versions of those bombs.

Some analysts say the North hasn't likely achieved the technology needed to manufacture a miniaturized warhead that could fit on a long-range missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. But there is a growing debate on just how far the North has advanced in its secretive nuclear and missile programs.

North Korea needs fresh nuclear tests for practical military and political reasons. To build a credible nuclear program, the North must explode new nuclear devices — including miniaturized ones — so its scientists can continually improve their designs and technology. Nuclear-tipped missiles could then be used as deterrents, and diplomatic bargaining chips, against its enemies — and especially against the United States, which Pyongyang has long pushed to withdraw its troops from the region and to sign a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War.

"This is indeed a wakeup call," Lassina Zerbo, the head of the Vienna-based U.N. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, which has a worldwide network of monitoring stations to detect nuclear testing, told AP by phone. "I am convinced it will have repercussions on North Korea and international peace and stability."

(KA)

[Hamloc]

My thoughts on the upcoming year would almost mirror Sask3. Lots of yellow peas look to be grown in my area,seed sold out over a month ago. I think crop prices will continue sideways, and with the low Canadian dollar inputs will go up. I think there is a better than 50% chance oil will drop below 30 usd a barrel and a 90% chance we will see below 70 cent dollar. I think the cow/calf guys will do alright in 2016, at least a little money to be made.

By the end of 2016 the picture will be much clearer on what provincial and federal governments are going to do with carbon taxes and how this will affect our bottom line.

We will have a new US president it will be interesting to see who runs against Hillary. Trump is certainly having fun stirring the pot, I can't say whether he will win or the Republican establishment. The powers at be certainly don't want Trump but the way he pisses everybody off is entertaining. I like the fact he is beholden to no one but he is not president material.

have a good day:-)

[ajl]

Interest rates going up by the major banks. This hasn't happened for many years. Someone has to pay the loan losses in oil patch. So add higher interest rates to the mix. Government never raise interest rate: the market forces it too. Was like that in the 80's and it will happen again this time. Despite the B of Canada printing like crazy: we will have higher rates. So red ink will flow like a river on the farm in 16.

[bucket]

The banks are making pretty good money on their interest already.

Talk about kicking an economy when it's already down.

[TOM4CWB]

From DTN;

Weather
Wednesday will feature moderate to heavy rain and snow in the Far West, snow in the intermountain West, and a mix of light rain, freezing moisture and snow in the Plains and western Midwest. Other primary crop areas will be dry. This wintry mix will spread across the central U.S. during the balance of the week. Temperatures will be seasonally chilly. The Australia Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values Wednesday are: 30-Day -11.32; 90-Day -11.50; Daily -33.72. These values indicate that the 2015-16 El Nino is stronger than the famous 1997-98 event.

[Hopalong]

Looking on bright side, corn and wheat futures show modest price increase for coming year, may be allowing for production problems more than over production.
$CAD not predicted to change too much versus $US, means advantage for us until prices of our inputs increase.
Somewhat flat prices for cattle and hogs do not look good unless feed grain prices fall.
Looking for some restraint by our provincial and federal governments in policy that supports lower value Canadian dollar versus US.

[hobbyfrmr]

Signed new crop contracts for 10% higher price than old crop. Selling a little surplus old crop for the extra 10%. Selling pulses into the US for sweet exchange rate.
Expanded 160 acres, loose talking about another 350. All poor quality land.
Pay interest, or pay income taxes, you choose.
Rebuilding some 30 yr old equipment, so I am not short of machinery. It's not pretty but it's paid for. Retired guys like driving the old simple tractors, I'm not short t on skilled labour. The boss is an idiot but I tolerate him.
For 2016, I Hope to break even, I could use the money

[farmaholic]

What a guy....

[hobbyfrmr]

dont get me wrong, I am grateful for a decent old crop , and it looks like there is a future in the new crop. Im not bragging , it just seems like I may finally have a few ducks getting close to being in a row.
Its farming, it can go sideways any given time. I work with decreased expectations. Then I dont have to be chronically discontent. I have seen that movie, the sequel and threequel. They were not very amusing.

[tweety]

Its never been as easy or as profitable to farm as it is today.

What hasn't changed is the incessant whining.

[wakopa]

Looks like another tough year on agriville, last year canola on here was gonna be 7or8 dollars, I got over ten, sold all my wheat at 7:50 plus and locked in new crop the same, locked canola in at higher price than last year, we have good moisture to start the new crop , Greg will be gone , his goal was to have one government employee per worker so he could win , hope Brian will run Manitoba like he played ball, lucky I live where I do , way better living here by the sounds of it .

[Cattleman]

Is this a new record? Only January 6th and we are throwing in the towel on the year? lol

Things looking pretty good. Cattle prices down, but still historically strong, lots of interest for 2016 hay sales, and put in a few acres of grain. I probably don't have a 1/10th of the wealth of SF3, but on my pint sized, low over head farm, life is great! Lots of opportunity out there if you have the right perspective. All the best to everyone in 2016!

[ajl]

Where was 7.50 available for 2016 wheat? Durum maybe but wheat I doubt it. Seen HRS around 6.50 in central AB area but that is a long way from 7.50. Canola could be locked in at around 11 a few weeks ago and that is not a bad start. Cost on rented land is also very near 11 with average yield but hopefully this is my year for a lucky yield. Conditions are good right now. Many did get surprisingly good yields due to a lucky May rain but others didn't and that affect outlook. Mind you the lucky think those that had half a crop due to drought are poor farmers but that is always the case and you are welcome to your opinion.

[Hopalong]

Admit way of life part appealed to me through my farming years, especially the earlier ones.
Some regret over the times when it was allowed to over shadow business decisions but, overall, think it had fairly good balance.
Have seen times change to where business part has become more and more important to keep a farm going into the future.
Agree that, for those who like it and treat it as a business, the future looks great.