Mustard,,, Hot Prices...

[farmaholic]

Courtesy of Weber Commodities



Courtesy of Sask Development Commission




Sorry for the small pictures, I doubt you'll be able to see them from a smart phone screen.

But if a picture could tell a story, this would be a short story.... SELL!!!

Hell, I can't see them on the desk top. Sorry, Maybe I'll try to make them bigger!!

[farming101]

Stat publishing is listing #1 yellow at 50 - 56 cents.
Good money.

[farmaholic]

Current Yellow Mustard bids are in the 50 plus to 60 cent range, depends on who you talk to.


2016 Crop...

Sometimes when we follow the rainbow, as we get closer to the end the more it fades, then when we get there the pot of gold is empty, too many got there before you or too many were thinking the same thing as you.

Sometimes bright stars become falling stars.

Zig when everyone else Zags.

Grab some good contract prices with AOG clauses, some overage could be cheap in comparison to current prices(lentils and mustard). But... historically they still may be "OK".

[farming101]

Quit growing it. Had to make a choice. Canola or mustard.

[farmaholic]

We don't have alot of dirt we can grow it on. Only have about 240 acres suitable. Canola far enough back in the rotation.... bigger problem on those acres is getting to be cleavers. Authority claims suppression at the lower rate.

It's a good crop to speculate with... Mine is two years old(grown in '14)

[farming101]

Sounds like you might not be speculating much longer!

Mustard in the canola was a big or bigger problem. At that time we still
were using generic or maybe liberty varieties.
Remember maybe in '02 when it froze early the price went into the 70's but
not for long.

[farmaholic]

Don't tempt me to move my target, farming101!!!

[farmaholic]

Pictures showed up in the new format site????? I should try posting them here(this post was made from the old site format) to see If they show up there... vicey versy kinda thing.

[farming101]

Never did sell any for 70. The 02 crop was a #3 and tough. Sold some for 40
then kept the rest and wound up selling it years later for 18 or something like that.
Somewhere around the time when canola hit 5 bucks.
It was low quality. I think some guys dumped their 02 frosted stuff in the bush.
No one wanted it after 03 crop came off.

Sold some of the 03 crop for 40 and the rest after storing it for 4 years for 60.
That was the end of mustard around here.

Happy marketing!

[hobbyfrmr]

Courtesy of Weber Commodities

[ATTACH]65[/ATTACH]

Courtesy of Sask Development Commission

[ATTACH]66[/ATTACH]


Sorry for the small pictures, I doubt you'll be able to see them from a smart phone screen.

But if a picture could tell a story, this would be a short story.... SELL!!!

Hell, I can't see them on the desk top. Sorry, Maybe I'll try to make them bigger!!

Don't forget to sell some mustard. When they are handing out pie......take a piece.

[vvalk]

I know they have bought in the last month at 60 cents

[Rareearth]

I didn't see the charts.

Time to sell based on charts? Usually there is more to a story than that.
For example:
1 we wive in a global economy now where importers look for the best price, price for quality, timeliness of delivery. The best choice for importers and the lowest price is usually at harvest.
2 who in the world, what countries grow mustard, that competes with Canada?
3 look at the harvest timing, what months do these other countries harvest their crop
4 canada is on of or is the worlds largest exporters ( producer?) for mustard, who else can supply mustard to the worlds importers and processors between now and August when Canada has a crop again?
Argentina?
Turkey?
India?
Australia?
Europe?
5 canada is the next harvest that can fill the shortfall in global production. We are only 6 months into our marketing year. Prices must go much higher to ration supply or substitution needs to take place
6 what can be substituted for mustard?
7 the exporters better send a clear message the importers that this won't be fixed unless Canada has a huge crop (lots of acres) with motivation and incentive is required with very high, extraordinary pricing, record breaking, etc or risk impossible situation next year.
Must have record pricing, new crop contracts to stimulate acres or growers will grow other crops ( lentils)
8 what % of the current Canadian crop is unsold? 6 months left for our crop year
9 what are the grower prices, or competing export offers in other countries for mustard?

We live in a shoe box, we should be asking more questions, price discovery is very important for the determination of value. Basing sales on historic parameters isn't marketing. The above questions are what profesional purchasers with university degrees do every single day. We are supposed to be some of the worlds best producers, and marketers. Great technology, living standards, safe- traceable food, nice people.

I'll stop short, the above is a story, and can't be written in a few lines, or any particular order. The market provides more info every day, where the story changes ( or price or risk) Now your a speculator, hoping for a better price. BUT now you are informed and can make or measure have in hand information for a calculated risk.

I really enjoy the people and thoughts on agriville. Always thought provoking.

[hobbyfrmr]

When we grow a commodity and have inventory, we usually wish the price would go up so we can make profit.
The spot price of mustard looks to be about 42% more than a year ago. I look at these things in a $/hour scenario like a working man.
Last year I was paying myself $12.00/hour. This year I can give myself a raise to $17.00/hour for the same labour efforts, if I sell the mustard today.

[hobbyfrmr]

You can always sell the inventory for less than the spot price if that works better for your operations.

[farmaholic]

Rareearth: I can see what happened historically but can't see into the future. You make good points though.

Substitution, I don't know if there are any viable alternative other than between the classes themselves(yellow, brown and oriental). Depending what they(end user) are doing, I can see them substituting from a cheaper class.

Competition comes from Eastern Europe, they farm on nearly the same latitude as us and obviously in the same hemisphere so there will likely be no, or not much, new supply until 2016 harvest in both continents.

I am in touch with about 4 buyers, one out of the States, one that has connections to Germany and two other exporters. I realize they are just buyers and not end users. But unless I want to export the little bit I grow, now and then, directly to the end users I have to rely on the buyers as the liaison between me and the end user and rely on them(buyers) for my price signals.

I will try not to let greed cloud my judgement. Marketing greed has taught me more than one lesson in my time, it takes a few "lessons" to sink in. "Historically" how many times in the chart has yellow mustard been at 60 cents? Look at the stocks to use chart... signals. I may get a home run with other runners on the bases but it may not be the "bases loaded grand slam"!

I will net more off the quarter section it was grown on than I paid for it in 1997...