Processors gone to just in time?

[farming101]

Or are the report numbers bad? Stocks much lower than last year.

[bucket]

Interesting

[farming101]

If these numbers are accurate it may be worth putting in a short term
target price order with a healthy premium over daily bids on any new sales
a guy wants to make for immediate delivery.

[Guest]

its real simple, $10.50 cad canola is $7.41 usd . all our expenses and inputs are in usd , even the fertilizer and fuel made in sask . you can't make money on canola @ $7.41

[farmaholic]

f101... Feb/Mar bids in my part of the world are around $10.50. What is a premium to you? How do you get them to bid higher without using Target agreements? One location has a spot basis at double the July basis and July isn't horrible.

I wonder if people hate DDCs as much as I hate Target price agreements?

Remember last years "specials" to get the bin doors open enough to get some grain then drop the price again, instills the "shoulda" sold mentality.... rinse and repeat. Until late in the crop year they had us believing/convinced $10.00 was as high as it was ever going to go.

[stonepicker]

Hmm, at 10.50/bus. i make money with canola, at 7.40/bus. i lose money growing canola. Well i'm sure glad i'm getting 10.50! Because i'm MAKING MONEY!! There's a lot more ostrich farmers in western canada than just ritz!

[farmaholic]

caseih, that is a cold hard reality, $10.50 US is $14.70 CAD... ain't going to happen.

Weber has Velve ND canola converted to $10.12 CAD. What is that US... about $7.20?

[farming101]

I would do a short term target order ONLY if it was for immediate
or within the next few weeks movement.
A 50 cent premium would be worth a try. I don't think any primary elevator
would pick that up.

Canola keeps coming to town. Often times the tactic used is
"Well, if you don't want to sell for 11.00 how about 10.50?"
And some more gets shook loose. At least with a short term target you
are saying this is what I want not what I'll take.

And if you can afford to wait and see what happens in 2016 that's
good too. It can be kind of exciting!

[farmaholic]

Before the holidays we let some go for $11 June delivery.

$10.82 for June/July now.

How will the economies affect agricultural commodity prices?

[farming101]

Things that will influence canola prices going forward, among others:

Oil prices and by extension the CAD. I can't see how the
CAD is going to recover anytime soon.

Chinese imports - last year China was about half the
total export program from March to July. Shipments
are down a little to China this year to the end of Oct

[LEP]

I booked most of my canola for June at 11.03.

I think the situation in China and the eventual selling of Argentinian Soybeans will weigh on canola for awhile.

[Guest]

we've had a 20 cent premium target in for a while for march , no interest at richardson . sold some friday for $10.88 for june at another place , was $10.94 but dropped 6 cents while we were deciding

[Hamloc]

Currency devaluation creates the illusion that we are better off. From a par cad to USD to where we are now we have lost over 40% of our buying power, yes on paper we are making money but in reality we are going backwards, just the way it is.

[Guest]

thanks hamloc , that was the comparison i was trying to make with the $7.41 canola when i got compared to ritz i think .

[stonepicker]

Lol, low dollar hi dollar your getting 10.50 for your canola, low dollar is good for us right now, anyways if the deficit will take care of itself so will the low dollar. lol