C$ Fresh Lows until this Changes

[TOM4CWB]

USDCAD– Retail FX traders remain heavily short the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar, and we maintain our contrarian calls for further USD/CAD gains.

As we’ve highlighted in recent weeks, aggregate positioning is near its most net-short since at least 2011. And the clear caveat remains that such aggressive imbalances often coincides with important turns in price; crowds are often their most net-short at the top.

Of course we first highlighted this possibility nearly a month and 400 USD/CAD pips ago, and we will continue to emphasize that such extremes are only clear in hindsight. It would take a substantive shift in crowd sentiment to change our USD/CAD-bullish trading bias.

Prev Close: 0.6971
Open: 0.6970
Bid: 0.6960
Ask: 0.6963
1:05pmEST

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-dollar-likely-hit-fresh-165000070.html

[BTO_farmalll]

Tough Crowd Around Here Today Tom, Think It Hurts 2 Talk About Their Net Worth Effectively Being Cut in Half The Last Few Months!!!!!! But Sunny Ways, oh Sunny Ways Right!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Canadian Dollar Drops with Crude Oil as IAEA Mulls Iran Sanctions
Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 5:16AM EST - US Markets open in 4 hrs and 14 mins
Prev Close: 0.6966
Open: 0.6965
Bid: 0.6887
Ask: 0.6888
CAD/USD (CADUSD=X) -CCY
0.6888 Down 0.0079(1.1300%) 5:19AM EST
Talking Points:

Aussie Drops, Yen Gains as China Helps Amplify Risk Aversion Overnight
Canadian Dollar Sinks with Crude Oil Before UN Decision on Iran Sanctions
US Dollar May Rise if Data Outcomes, Fed-Speak Boost Rate Hike Outlook
The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars plunged alongside Asian stock markets while the Euro and Yen outperformed amid an unwinding of carry trades positions as risk aversion struck markets overnight. Chinese news-flow appeared to amplify the selloff. Beijing weakened the Yuan by the most in a week at the daily fixing, a now-familiar source of market jitters, and posted weaker-than-expected lending figures.

The Canadian Dollar caught up to selling pressure facing its commodity-bloc counterparts late into the session as WTI crude oil prices dropped to the lowest level in close to 13 years. Newswires linked the plunge to worries about the impact of on-coming supply before the lifting of export sanctions on Iran, which could come as soon as Monday if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) approves the move today.

Looking ahead, US retail sales and consumer confidence data as well as commentary from New York Fed President Bill Dudley are in focus. Receipts are seen falling 0.2, but the reading may reflect sinking oil prices. The core sales figure that excludes fuel and autos is forecast to yield a more respectable 0.4 percent gain, marking only slight deceleration from the prior month’s 0.5 percent gain. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge is seen rising to a six-month high.

US economic news flow has markedly improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting that analysts may be underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for upside surprises. If such outcomes are coupled with comments suggesting the Fed intends to look past market turmoil to focus on fundamentals from Mr. Dudley, rate hike bets may firm. This is likely to boost the US Dollar and amplify risk aversion.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-dollar-drops-crude-oil-082800773.html

[TOM4CWB]

Canada in the middle of an identity crisis as loonie’s worst rout ever raises petro-state fears
Ari Altstedter, Bloomberg News | January 5, 2016 | Last Updated: Jan 14 11:34 AM ET
A decade ago, Canada set out to become an energy superpower. Now, it enters 2016 riding down one of the world’s most battered petro-currencies.

Canadian dollar could sink as low as 68 cents [some one was dreaming] as bond with oil grows to world’s strongest

Bloomberg

Where the price of oil goes, so goes Canada’s dollar. No other major currency is as closely tied to the value of its key commodity export as the loonie is to crude right now.

Continue reading.
When the clock struck midnight on Dec. 31, the loonie officially recorded its longest and deepest downturn since it became a floating currency in 1970. And there’s no relief in sight.

The loonie’s 16 per cent decline against the U.S. dollar over the past year marks its third straight annual decline. The currency has lost more than a quarter of its value since 2012, falling to 72.27 U.S. cents from US$1.01. That’s almost a penny a month.

Wednesday it sank further to 71.10 US cents.

In the 45 years since Canada ended its currency peg to its largest trading partner — a period spanning two votes on Quebec separation, a full-blown fiscal crisis, a previous Saudi-engineered oil price rout and several recessions far worse than the shallow contraction early last year — no dollar depreciation has been this bad for this long.

Canada, the envy of the world for weathering the 2008-09 global financial crisis better than almost any other developed country, has suddenly lost its footing in the global economy. The high oil prices and increased oilsands production that fuelled growth for a decade look unlikely to return soon, prompting an unusual level of soul-searching about just what kind of economy the country has built.

‘Identity Crisis’

“Canada is in the midst of an identity crisis,” said Emanuella Enenajor, senior economist covering the country for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “In the 2000s Canada was the commodity producer to the U.S. In the 90s, Canada was the manufacturer to the U.S. Today, Canada’s identity is unclear.”

Shortly after becoming prime minister in 2006, Stephen Harper, who represented a Calgary constituency in Parliament, went around the world talking up his country as an “emerging energy superpower” and comparing development of the oilsands to the building of the Great Wall of China or Egypt’s pyramids.

He was pushing on an open door. China’s rapid industrialization was driving up demand and prices of commodities worldwide, including crude. As prices began their ascent to US$100 per barrel and beyond, investment flooded into Canada’s oilsands, the third largest crude reserves in the world.

The loonie climbed from an all-time low of 61.76 U.S. cents in the first quarter of 2002 to an all-time high of US$1.10 at the end of 2007. It tracked the price of oil down through the financial crisis and then headed back to par with the greenback from the middle of 2010 until late 2013 as crude rebounded.

[ajl]

Nothing new here. Canada is a third world country pretending to be first world with the aid of debt. Politically it does not want to change as the status quo has worked for the people that matter so enjoy the decline. If we returned to market rates of interest Canadian real estate values would fall 60% and that would bankrupt the bank which would bankrupt the pension plans etc. so the government has to perpetuate the bubble at all costs. So Canadian QE it will be starting with a January rate cut, the dollar falling further, and hyper inflation on needed imported products.

[bucket]

Should be good for farmers.

Fertilizer made here in canada... check.

Fuel made here in canada ..... check.

Export output .... check.

And yet it doesn't work out as well as one would hope.


Instead we get converted world fertilizer and fuel prices and a royal ****ing for grain prices.

[farming101]

Fuel? Check the latest farm bulk price for diesel and get back to us.

[farmaholic]

farming101....there you go with them negative waves....always with the negative waves.....

Its Friday....try saying something positive and righteous for a change....

Captain Oddball...over and out.

[farming101]

Gee, just got quoted about 60 cents a litre
and thats in worthless canadian pesos!
Not bad.
Diesel in North Dakota next door to the refinery is retailing for 1.89 US dollars.
Get out your calculator!

[farmaholic]

Ya ya I know it's reasonable now. .68$ quote the other day, but the Moriarty in me says by the time I can fill with heavy summer grade it'll be .85$ or hopefully not more.

Just ribbing you about the negative waves....too stupid video.