Where should crude be?

[farmaholic]

Where should the price of crude be? Hard to believe something that rallied to a high of $145 in July of 2008 can only be worth $28.50 today, that's a hair under 20% of it's peak value. Obviously both are the extreme price ranges but where should it be?

What was the true driver between 02 and 08, demand or speculation? Would have prices went over the cliff if demand drove it to it's highs? What could possibly change in afew months to see that drastic drop?

[bucket]

Only a guess but 50 a barrel usd. 70 bucks cdn.

That would keep people employed and still allow oil companies to do their long weekend collusion gouging.

It's only taken a year to see reduced pump prices. When oil starts to climb it will only take a day after the "excuse" meeting to raise pump prices.

Yes I am a bit pissed that no politician can touch a oil company or a railway for reduced rates when their inputs are lower.

Meanwhile every input I buy has an excuse tagged along as to why it has to go higher.

It's bullshit.

[BFW]

I agree the selloff is probably overdone. But as commodity producers we all know what happens when supply exceeds demand for a given product sometimes by the barest of margins. We have all experienced it. Painful if you have to sell, but reverses very quickly when the situation changes.

[iceman]

Crude oil is doing a 4G negative dive. No sense getting long Farmaholic

Ice out

[farmaholic]

Maybe a more interesting question would be what drove it up between 07 and half way through 08?

I can't see demand drying up that quickly to see the last two major falls in price being as drastic as they were.

Pumping too hard? "Slower" demand? Rising inventories? Market speculation and manipulation(wearing my tinfoil hat)? Gouging? True market correction?

[farmaholic]

icy.... lots of people along for the ride faint from the nosedive. Eject... pull the chute rip cord... chute won't deploy... prepare for a hard landing!!! Splat. Send home the medics.

[hobbyfrmr]

If your feeling charitable you can sponsor and unemployed oilfield worker for $800.00/day.

[farmaholic]

You're ****ing priceless hobby,,, belly laughing...

[biglentil]

Yep right when McCleans magazine had the pic of the guy with the gas pump nozzle pointed at his own head with a $200 per barrel caption it was ready for the big short deux.

Now the knife is dropping fast and hard might want to grab it after it begins to bounces off the floor. Just stay away from the double long oil etf HOU.to the contago will eat you alive.

Anyone have a report on what Fort Mac looks like these days?

[riders2010]

Lmao. Good one hobby. Fk let it dive maybe all those workers need to work for the price everyone else does.

Lots of people realizing it was all a Ponzi scam there is oil everywhere.

[ajl]

I would agree with Bucket 50-60 US. This would ensure all the oil we need in a sustainable fashion. Reckless central bank money printing drove the price to a speculative high. If all the central bankers left the market to sort it out in 2009, we would not have had the boom and bust of the last 5 yrs. Farmland also would only be half the price of the recent past as well.

[Guest]

trouble is riders , it didn't stop at the oilpatch . have you saw what car and Mach dealers are charging ? and everywhere you look .

[bucket]

My guess is the auto industry will be back for money inside of a year.

[Guest]

I would be more concerned about the banks since they lent the money based on $70 oil. Wouldnt be surprised if the banks get in line once they cant recover the money from bankrupt oil companies whose assets are worthless. just a thought!

[sumdumguy]

The banks should be regulated. Every year they make billions of dollars and should be required to invest a set portion in a rainy day fund so they can draw on the fund in downturns. Bank reserves won't cover the losses this time. We shouldn't have to bail out these big boys.