Do we have a Bottom in Oil or are we just about their!

[SASKFARMER3]

I said months ago oil would get bad and really bad and it did. Most said oh it cant the world needs the product yea over producing is working so good for oil like grain. The world would pay for food if every farmer cut back 10% or 20%. They pay to drive and their for sure would pay to eat.
But I digress the price of oil has a bounce one more drop then I think were going up.
Sentiment.
Essentially, it goes like this: when everybody crowds into a trade, an idea, or an opinion, that’s exactly the time to take the other side of the bet. When it seems like everyone is calling for oil to continue to fall, that’s the opportune time to be contrarian.
Production cuts

Last year didn’t see much in the way of production cuts, but 2016 will be different, especially among North American producers. There are dozens of different producers that will go bankrupt barring a miraculous recovery in crude

Futures prices

The final reason why I think oil has bottomed is because that’s what future contracts are telling us.

Going out just a few months, the May 2016 crude oil contract trades at $30.23 per barrel, an increase of more than 14% compared to today’s quoted price, which is for the February contract. July contracts are trading at $32 per barrel, and the January 2017 contracts are nearly $35 each.

But really kind of simple have production cuts and a market that needs a product and wow price goes up.

Ah farmers we could learn so much if we followed oil.

Happy Friday all!

[ajl]

I think we have found a near term bottom if the colder weather stays but the price will not recover enough to save many firms that are on the brink most don't have much hedged oil left. Was at Wal Mart yesterday and 680 g boxes of corn flakes were bought for 2.97 so some groceries and 3L of canola oil was $6 so some prices were quite reasonable. Gas was around 68.5 as well. Haven't seen it that low for a decade. Inflation is good for the rich and deflation good for the poor.

[cottonpicken]

Scary thought. Lots of politics in oil. Starting to look like a war of atrition. Imagine a no bid on Canadian oil.

[sumdumguy]

No offence SF3, but there is a difference between there and their. There, I've said it.

[cottonpicken]

Hay grammar nazi. Did I say that wright?

[biglentil]

China just made a deal with the Saudis to trade oil in Chinese yuan. Though it may seem like subtle thing it is far from it. Its a major leap forward in establishing the Petro Yuan as an alternative reserve currency and big dagger in the USSA petrol dollar bull. Its a great time to short the USD and go long oil imo. That may well have been the bottom in oil and we could see oil blow through 200 a barrel in the next couple years. Big volatility is the new paradigm.

[sumdumguy]

Sounds like a plan Biglentil. How much should I wager?

[Jay-mo]

Local Co-op, dyed summer diesel is at .55cents/Liter.
Can't remember when it was last that low.

[farming101]

Buy low, sell high!!!

[ajl]

Short USD, long oil. You guys are going to lose your farms. The Chinese economy is going nowhere so there is no such thing as petro yuan. China is looking for suckers that will take yuan off their hands and give them USD because they have 30 trillion dollars in internal debt (no one knows the real figure) and a lot of it is in USD. They are selling treasuries in order to raise USD, not economic warfare on the US. China and the rest of us need the US to take its exports.

[cottonpicken]

Its hard to make rational thoughts when information is so screwed.

Have read gdp of the us is way overstated,china has plans to build a super city of 130 million around bejing that will be called jinjijng(sp?)

Barring calamity south east asia is a hard one to bet against not that they won't have hiccups,but as their economies start to internalize.....look out.

[malleefarmer]

does oil have a dead cat bounce like other commodities?
yep checked my spelling but not punctuation.