Wow what a meld down in everything and even the weather was nice!

[SASKFARMER3]

January could go down as one of the worst months ever for every thing.
I read yesterday that Cat has real bad numbers, Go figure at over a mill for new machinery who is buying. Then went to a web page where you can bid at Proxibid on used basically close to new equipment. One cat D6 High track was $55 dollar bid with 13 hours left.
Stock market is in a tail spin.
Silver just dived.
Our dollar is in the tank.
Oil is low and going lower.
We have Trudeau.

Ok Ok ill leave the kid alone for a week or two again.

But basically it seems 2016 has lots and lots of issues wow makes you want to spend on a crop doesn't it every day.

Our price for wheat and Canola and Oats and Barley should be higher than were getting paid.

Wheat is close but the rest are in the shitter. With the dollar were its at.

Now on the positive side what a winter so far. Plus temps again today. Very little snow and it rains in our area. Hm could be a good start to growing season.
Have a great Weekend!

[hobbyfrmr]

Uggggghhhh. Where is the rope? Today is the day. The $ exchanges and the low prices of grain, the high prices of inputs and machinery. I just can't bar not to talk about it again. It so bad out there.....so bad.

[sumdumguy]

Canadian Dollar .71. Keep your powder dry, that's all you gotta do-do.

[TOM4CWB]

Why we are very blessed and it is a grEAT year to be a farmer!

The Grandchildren are coming to visit!

Just filled the Diesel tank... super great price... summer with no bio!

Have wonderful JD dealer support... and tech people...

Super good people to work with on our familyfarm...

Pulse prices have gotten even better... Canola is decent... and niche markets are growing every day!

[farmaholic]

....sold yellow mustard for 60 cents/lb.

....we too will be taking delivery of summer diesel early next week.

....beautiful winter so far.

....grain is moving.

....I'm healthy, fed, clothed(thank goodness for everyone else's sake), my house is warm.

....family is healthy.

....lots of silver linings...

[TOM4CWB]

Looks like a great year is on the way!

DTN Cliff Jamieson Canadian Grains Analyst
Tuesday 1/26/16
AAFC Looks Ahead to Next Crop Year
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's January Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition tables indicate that Canadian producers will seed 2.1 million more acres in the upcoming year, split close to evenly between more grains and oilseeds and more pulses and special crops.

Of the grains and oilseeds, the biggest expected jump in acres is forecast for canola with an expected 748,713 acre jump -- or 3.7% -- to 20.8 million acres, roughly back to the area seeded in 2014. A smaller projected crop in 2016 combined with smaller carry-in stocks has led to lower supplies, while an expected 700,000 mt cut in demand for 2016/17 (500,000 mt of exports and 200,000 mt of crush)is expected to result in ending stocks falling for the third consecutive year to 1.2 million metric tons. The range of canola prices paid to producers is expected to be $15 to $25/mt higher than the range estimated for the current crop year, with an expected range of $510 to $550/mt. The new-crop November contract closed at $491.70/mt, with recent resistance at $500/mt, while today's average Prairie September delivery basis is calculated at $26.75/mt under the November. Given this price forecast, something has to give in the way of higher futures or stronger basis.

Wheat acres (excluding durum) are expected to dip slightly despite producer returns which are expected to remain constant from the current crop year. Given smaller carry-in stocks from 2015/16, exports are expected to be lower while ending stocks are expected to fall in 2016/17 for the third consecutive crop year to 2.8 mmt, the smallest carryout seen in Statistics Canada data going back to 1980. A combination of moves in both wheat futures and the Canadian dollar is expected to keep returns unchanged from the current crop year. Wheat acres are expected to be lost to durum, canola and pulse crops.

Durum acres are forecast to be 1.9% higher, with previous writing in this space indicating how durum's premium to wheat continues to favor durum. Roughly 5.9 million acres are expected to be seeded, the largest area since 2008. This is despite ending stocks expected to end higher for the second consecutive year in 2016/17 and government forecasts that suggest producer returns will dip as much as 12.5% to a top end of close to $7.50/bu.

AAFC is projecting a 3.8% cut in corn acres along with a 3.9% boost in the country's soybean crop. This move could be viewed as counter to current estimates that suggest more corn and more soybeans will be planted in the U.S. in 2016, while agrimoney.com reports that Dupont is expecting corn acres in the U.S. to increase at the expense of soybeans, according to current seed sales. Time will tell, although an estimated 48% increase in Ontario's winter wheat acres to Statistics Canada's estimate of 1 million acres has taken acres away from row crops. Ending stocks for both crops are expected to fall in 2016/17, while producer returns for corn are expected to remain steady while soybean returns are expected to slip slightly from 2015/16.

Increased interest in special crops and pulses has led to forecasts which include a 14.2% hike in dry pea acres to 4.2 million acres, a 12.7% hike in lentil acres to 4.4 million acre, a 10% hike in chickpeas to 135,905 acres and a 17.9% increase in mustard acres to 407,715 acres.

Tight ending stocks expected to be carried out of 2015/16 for many of the special crops and pulses will help keep total supplies in check next crop year, although current projections indicate producer returns for both peas and lentils dipping from the current year while ending stocks are expected to grow 136% for peas and 400% for lentil given current demand projections for 2016/17. Planting seed could be a limiting factor given the large increase in pulse acres, with some Prairie forecasts indicating that as much as 5 million acres could be planted.

AAFC's tables shows few crops showing a decline in acres. Producers are expected to seed 185,325 fewer acres of oats, 123,550 fewer acres of corn and roughly 62,000 fewer acres of wheat (excluding durum). Summerfallow acres, reported at a record low of 2.560 million acres in 2015, could fall sharply to meet AAFC's cropping forecast.

This report may lead to debate, while there is a great deal of time for market signals to present opportunities prior to spring."

[bucket]

Obviously some of you have started smoking pot.

There is 2.15 mmt of ship capacity waiting to fill out west and the railways and graincos are only moving 600000 tonnes per week.

Please shake your heads. When you consider the weather.

Locally the concrete has loaded 2 trains since December 1.

Flax needs an extra 200 miles to deliver.

It's not all sunshine and lollipops.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket,

Land in SK is cheaper... for good reasons.

[bucket]

Thanks tom.

God bless you.

Cheers.

YIBPOS.

[checking]

Land in Sk. is cheaper for a reason.

As Alberta shakes and bakes in a few short decades due to climate change, while the east side of Sk. and Manitoba experience Nebraska rainfall and temperatures, your family Tom may not agree with their old man.

[bucket]

No checking, what will happen is the alberta government will invest heavily in irrigation infrastructure.

The taxpayers will get the same treatment as what went on with the oil companies.

Help us help you. And when shit hits the fan you can burden the taxpayers.

[farmaholic]

Bucket, thats about 3.5 weeks of shipping at the movment quoted....not horrible. How long have the ships been waiting?

[bucket]

Some have been around since the beginning of January.

It's not acceptable given the weather and they could be moving a million a week.

But I won't go off on the tinfoil conspiracy theories much anymore. Too many are complacent enough to let 1997 and 2013 happen again.

Won't feel sorry for guys with 40 cent lentil contracts in the fall sitting as 25 cent contracts get delivered.

And guys that say it's not bad are condoning the graincos and railways incompetence that wasn't tolerated when the cwb was in place.

[stonepicker]

How quickly some forget the chronic backlog of ships during the --- era. really bucket?

[farming101]

I think the average grain bulk carrier hauls 40 -50 thousand tonnes?

A lot of rain lately. I know others have said it doesn't slow down loading
ships one bit. I don't know.

Docked at Cargill:
Tamarita: arrived at Vancouver Jan 26
Federal SW: ETA Vancounver was Jan 16