Western Canadian Weather and Markets

[farmaholic]

I realize its too early to hit the panic button just yet but there is a bit of a "trend" that has developed. 2015 summer dryness in some parts of Western Canada, basically a winter drought in 2016(so far). Some areas with little subsoil moisture reserves. Cattle guys without proper run-off for dugouts and poor pastures. Lots can happen and lots will, possibly both good and bad.

Would a Western Canadian weather scare even flinch the wheat and canola market? What will happen if there is a repeat of last year in areas? Poor emergence and even where it did come up--poor to mediocre yields. Anyone holding out for pop up in markets if nothing improves?

(Obviously, I let some good pricing opportunities pass already...)

[farmaholic]

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[fjlip]

The trade is just HOPING moisture happens, they are NOT worried in the least...world has a GLUT of commodities, prices going nowhere. Name something SHORT?

[ajl]

Central AB had good moisture between the end of August and freeze up in the middle of November. Snow is only useful for filling dugouts and protecting what is in the ground before freeze up. So it is far too early too worry about a drought during the growing season.

[BTO_farmalll]

#KillinCrop

[farmaholic]

Fear mongering is good for the markets. Creates volatility, right! Could we use a little helpful volatility right now?

[Ronski]

Central AB had good moisture between the end of August and freeze up in the middle of November. Snow is only useful for filling dugouts and protecting what is in the ground before freeze up. So it is far too early too worry about a drought during the growing season.

Central AB was low on rain all year, we didn't have a wet fall we had a long cool damp fall, not much moisture. We had an amazing crop on subsoil moisture which isn't there this year, yes snow only fills dugouts (or screws up low spots) but look at the pattern, we are down probably 10" of rain from Oct 2014 and if this continues its going to be a problem.
Not to be a dick (but if I have to start my sentence with that it means I'm a dick) but if it's dry here its a frickin wreck everywhere else.

Hope I'm wrong and it starts to rain June 1 but if it doesn't its gonna be ugly.

[mustardman]

If you believe in 18 year cycles that takes us back to 1998. That was a dry dry year

[farmaholic]

Interesting observation in my corner of the world. The percent of average precipitation is lower in SE Sask and SW Manitba in comparison to the whole lower southern Prairies going west to the mountains. We have about 40-60% of normal here and SW Manitoba but west to southern Alberta has
60-85%. The map of total accumulation has the whole lower southern Prairies with about the same amount. To me it means we just got less than we normally do compared to west of us. Not that we got less.... Interestingly though, there isn't much snow at MooseJaw (not sure west of there). It was warm enough to melt what did fall further west. We are still have a "bit" of snow cover. Sleds aren't running though....

This is for the period Nov 1 to Feb 11.

Sometimes there's more to the picture than meets the eye.

We did have some late harvest and fall rains to rebuild some of the subsoil moisture. Should help with getting things going if the hot high winds with low humidities stay away. Should have gone out with a moisture probe in fall.

What are the conditions like in your part of the Prairies?

[Guest]

NE sask froze up full and soaked . 2 ft snow , don't need any

[malleefarmer]

Wetter than average conditions suggested here in Australia first time for abot 8 years and 2nd in 15 yrears.
You experts will correct me absolute mt Everest of wheat in the world.
We can even get wheat into Indonesia our nearest neighbour French and black sea wheat cheap. Path of least resistance for wheat is south and a big production year wolrd wide dear me.

In the old single desk days awb would just undercut the market to make sales and take profit from cash market domestically to make the pool sales look better alas cant do that any more

Hay is becoming a huge part of many operations here into japan and china a very good return per acre has really really taken off last 4 years. Had massive crops in the middle of our crop season and many chop them down for hay other hang on and the finishing rains just haven't arrived hence hay is a option for many growers.

Only advantage Australia has is freight advantage over the utopia Canadians farm in and possibly cheaper land but weve been over that before.

[sumdumguy]

A CWB salesman told me would have a huge party even when they sold wheat below the cost of production. He thought it was a lark.

[freewheat]

We froze up with creeks running, ponds in fields where there shouldn't be, and now a fair bit of snow. Less than usual, but still too much. Haven't been out of my area much this winter, so hard to compare.

Lots of winter left. Unfortunately.

[bucket]

Freewheat

How are you?

Sure miss your input on threads.

Would have liked your opinion on the global transportation hub file.

[vvalk]

Free wheat. If there was a thread I missed it. Did you get your crop off?