Hard red wheat

[Klause]

6.30 to 6.50 available for new crop. Way better than last year at this time....


Sold 3 bu an ac. May do 2 more similar sales around the 6.50-6.60 mark. what do ya'll think ? ErroL ?

[bucket]

There was some 7 buck deals awhile back for December 16.

Didn't know if I was growing any.

[Oliver88]

Based on the cost of production, $7 and over is interesting for me.

[jamesb]

Did a little NC at 6.76 a few days ago. It's a start.

[Robertbarlage]

with the drought of the century coming wheat will hit $10.

[Oliver88]

with the drought of the century coming wheat will hit $10.

I'm not sure of drought of century but I think weather concerns will give #2 HRS new crop bids $7 and higher between now and August.

I hope your right about $10 HRS.

[farmaholic]

We may have a good handle on COP but you never know ahead of time if production times market price will make you profitable per acre.... all it is at this stage is a wild as guess. Prive/volume correlation.

That being said...we know sometimes the market will never make you profitable based on poor production....the market cant compensate if you're the only one(or few) with a wreck.

Nothing wrong with locking in a decent price though.

[farmaholic]

Where else are we going to get help from to see $10 HRS? I thought the world was swimming in wheat and Canada's. Production didn't matter?

[errolanderson]

Klause . . . good starting point. Given weakening global economies and ample grain stocks, prices in-general could continue to erode.

But number of analysts now suggest commodities may be bottoming. Not sure why? Global economies continue to slow.

Big equity market volatility risk seen ahead may again shake commodities once again (IMO).

[boarderbloke]

errol, to date a drop in crude prices has meant a drop in the DOW, but you agree, at some point these low crude prices will spur business and the economy, meaning an increase in the DOW. Of course the TSX is weighted much differently than the DOW, maybe a spread play if that ever happens.

[farming101]

$10 x 22=220
$6.50 x 44=286

[Guest]

It is always a good starting point to market some production at what would be a profitable price with average year production. Like farmaholic said, if your production is not there due to factors out of your control then no price attainable can make you profitable. We have been on that side of the game where you just try to limit the red ink through good prices but it can be frustrating when you know you are in the hole right away. This year will be interesting on so many fronts.

[errolanderson]

boarder . . . for the Dow to follow crude oil is unusual. The U.S. stated a few weeks ago that falling crude prices would benefit their recovery. They quickly found out, that isn't the case. Suddenly, U.S. equities followed oil for direction.

U.S. GDP is apt to fall into negative territory (IMO), despite all the political hype of job growth (low wage jobs) in the U.S. economy. Negative interest rates are also not talked about stateside even though it is a risk over the next 2 to 3 years.

But you bring up a good question; are recent gains across U.S. equities the result of real economic growth or just the flow-of-money generated by artificial stimulus?

[boarderbloke]

errol, don't forget this is an election year. obama, does not and will not allow a drop in the DOW to be part of his legacy! He's tight with those that will do everything to keep the DOW up.

[errolanderson]

boarder . . . Obama isn't bigger than the markets (IMO) . . . U.S. debt is far too out-of-control for any U.S. president to have much of a say anymore.